Last year Oscar ran into a case of no clear front runner for Best Picture. It seemed as though Dreamgirls jumped out to an early lead last year only to find itself left out of ultimate 5 come nomination time. There are lots of conspiracy theories as to why it was left out of the race but truth be told, it probably peaked too early.
This year we are running into a very similar case of no clear cut front runner. No Country for Old Men has dominated the major critics awards, but its subject matter seems too dark and violent for it be hailed the Best of the Best. Atonement and Sweeney Todd looked early on like they might face off against each other for the top dog honor. But would Oscar voters go for a film so similar to The English Patient and would they really go for a macabre musical about throat slashings?
After the nominations for SAG came out on Thursday morning Sweeney Todd and Atonement's stock have both taken a major nose dive. While Into the Wild's stock has increased significantly in value.
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Hairspray
Into the Wild
No Country for Old Men
Thoughts: No Sweeney Todd or Atonement. The biggest surprise to me is Juno, which is the cast of the year . I am shocked that American Gangster and 3:10 to Yuma are on this list. Rumor has it that the films released late in the calendar year weren't widly seen by SAG voters. But this is only hearsay. I think Into the Wild will win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
GEORGE CLOONEY
DANIEL DAY-LEWIS
RYAN GOSLING
EMILE HIRSCH
VIGGO MORTENSEN
Thoughts: I adore this list. All are very deserving. Johnny Depp should be here. Great for Gosling, who was perfect as Lars. Daniel Day Lewis will win for sure.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
CATE BLANCHETT
JULIE CHRISTIE
MARION COTILLARD
ANGELINA JOLIE
ELLEN PAGE
Boo for Cate Blanchett's uninspiring nomination. I am pissed about Amy Adams being absent from this list. I heard that SAG members didn't get screeners of Enchanted because the studio was terrified of piracy problems, but I would assume that enough of them must have seen it in theatres. If Oscar fails to nominate her, they've seriously missed the boat. It'll be intersting to see who of Christie, Cotillard or Page will win. I'd be thrilled with Cotillard. I'd be pleased with Page. I'd be disappointed with a Christie win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
CASEY AFFLECK
JAVIER BARDEM
HAL HOLBROOK
TOMMY LEE JONES
TOM WILKINSON
Thoughts: I predicted this exact list of five to be nominated. No love for Philip Seymour Hoffman, but again the rumor is SAG ignored the late year releases. Javier Bardem and his cattle stunner will win. He still gives me nightmares.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
CATE BLANCHETT
RUBY DEE
CATHERINE KEENER
AMY RYAN
TILDA SWINTON
Blanchett, Swinton, and Ryan are locks in the Oscar race. Ruby Dee might factor in the Oscar race if people are swayed more by the date on her birth cirtificate than her performance, which they often are. I love Catherine Keener, who is a consumate actress and literaly has to do virtually nothing to get award attention. She's just that good. It'll be interesting to see if SAG voters, who are fellow actors, honor character actress Ryan who's slaved through tons of stage work before nailing the role of Helene in Gone Baby Gone.
Next up National Societ of Film Critics and for your serious consideration: Amy Adams.
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