Globe/SAG Reactions!

Above is a picture of me titled as an Oscar blogger on Canada's version of Entertainment Tonight, however I am an impostor because I haven't blogged in over a week and I have no excuse beyond gaying out with my boyfriend and Christmas shopping for BBC miniseries for my mom.

So here's a long overdue blog concerning the recent Globe and SAG noms and how they effect the Oscar race overall.

Best Picture:

Welcome back to the race Inglorious Basterds. I had really completely written off Inglorious Basterds and it seems like it will be a major contender after all. I thought The Hurt Locker would be more of an also ran in the Oscar race. I didn't think it had the power to win big, but now it seems like a neck and neck race between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. Up in the Air was snubbed for Best ensemble at the SAGs, but it doesn't really effect its ultimate chance in my opinion. Nine still seems very much in the race despite it's incredible cold to luke warm reviews. The fact that the HFPA loves a musical and its ensemble could not be denied of a SAG nom, it will more than likely make it into Best Picture. The Globes and SAGs have officially sentenced The Lovely Bones to the same fate as the film's lead character. Interesting that Invictus was left out of Best Picture at the Globes, while Eastwood, Freeman, and Damon were all nominated. Precious made a nice appearance at the Globes and SAGs, despite the fact that Lee Daniels was left out of the Globe Director race. A Single Man didn't factor as much as I thought it would. The Globes left it out of Best Picture and Director and SAGs failed to nominate Julianne Moore. I think Avatar will factor hugely in this race. The Globes or SAGs were not where it was expected to garner a ton of support. Here's who I think will be the ten nominees:

The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Up
Invictus
Nine
Avatar
Precious
An Education
(500) Days of Summer

Best Actor

Not major shocks here. The 5 I expected before these nominations are still the 5 that I believe will be the final five. The SAGs snubbed Day-Lewis, which I didn't expect. I don't think The Academy will do the same. But if anyone is going to get his spot, it will be Jeremy Renner.

Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

Best Actress

Big confirmation here is that Sandra Bullock is the real deal for Best Actress. I feel confident in saying that Sandy will be a Best Actress nominee. 15 years after Speed, Sandra Bullock's two movies make over 300 million dollars at the box office and she gets her first ever Best Actress nomination. Not such a bad time to be her, right? I was surprised to see Helen Mirren's support for The Last Station, a film that has received virtually no buzz except for the fact that it stars Mirren and Plummer. I am sad to see Saoirse Ronan left off both lists. I haven't seen The Lovely Bones, but I was a major fan of the novel and think that Ronan is a spectacular performer. But I guess not everyone can have two Oscar nominations by age 15. This race is still a 3 way race. But I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think anyone can touch Carey Mulligan.

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor -

No major shake ups here. Christoph Waltz is clearly going to win. I again am surprised to see Plummer recognized, but it would be nice for him to receive his first ever Oscar nom. It would also be nice if Alec Baldwin had been nommed. Hopefully the Academy will nominate him so that we have that great opportunity for the host/nominee tension and excitement.

Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress -

I felt that this category was practically written in stone from the get go. I thought maybe Farminga would be pushed out by Dench or a category shift by Cotillard. But I feel safe in saying that the final 5 will be who I expected them to be. Interesting that Moore was snubbed by the SAGs in favor of Diane Kruger. This will not happen with the Academy who adore nominated Julianne Moore. (They just don't adore giving her an Oscar).

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Vera Farminga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Best Director -

I have no clue how this will play out come Oscar. I can't imagine that Kathryn Bigelow will be the first ever female winner of Best Director. I just don't think the old boys club is ready for that quite yet. However I do expect the nominees to be:

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds

This isn't such a bad line up?

The Oscar race settles down a little bit for the holidays. Next up we have National Society of Film Critics and more precursors. Also upcoming is the year 2010, which means we are starting a new decade, which also means I need to start my best of the decade lists of films and performances. Did I mention I love this time of year?

Globe Predictions

I actually have to talk about the Golden Globe nominations effect on the Oscar on Canada's version of Entertainment Tonight tomorrow. I'd like to think that I am on my way to becoming Canada's Dave Karger. The above is a picture of him on the set of the Today responding to the Globe noms two years ago. Also pictured are Ellen Page getting a bouquet of roses from Matt Lauer. I hope that a similar scene happens to me tomorrow but chances are of this happening... are... not... so... great. Sigh!

I love this time of year so much. This week is especially juicy because of daily award and nomination announcements. Yesterday was LA, today Broadcast Critic noms and NY awards, tomorrow Golden Globes, and Thursday SAG noms. It's so much fun for me!

Here are my Golden Globe predictions.
Best Picture - Drama

The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Precious
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Nine
The Hangover
It's Complicated
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man

Best Director

James Cameron - Avatar
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Lee Daniels - Precious
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor - Drama

Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Geoge Clooney - Up in the Air

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

Daniel Day Lewis - Nine
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
Joseph Gordon-Levitt -(500) Days of Summer
Bradley Cooper - The Hangover
Matt Damon - The Informant

Best Actress - Drama

Carey Mulligan - An Education
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julie
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Zooey Deschannel - (500) Days of Summer

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Stanley Tucci - Julie and Julia
Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farminga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Mariah Carey - Precious

And that's that.

We shall see.

From L.A. to New York - from New York to L.A

Things have just gotten plenty interesting in 2009's Oscar Race with The Hurt Locker being awarded the Best Picture Award by both LA and New York film critics.

Here are the major winners from both groups:


LA:

Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Runner-up: “Up in the Air”

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Runner-up: Michael Haneke, “The White Ribbon”

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Runner-up: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”

Best Actress: Yolande Moreau, “Séraphine”
Runner-up: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Runner-up: Peter Capaldi, “In the Loop”

Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Runner-up: Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”



New York:

Best Picture
“The Hurt Locker”

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actor
George Clooney, “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “Up in the Air”

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

So what should we make of these decisions and their ultimate effect on Oscar?

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker jumps out to the lead in the Best Picture race with Up in the Air, Invictus and Precious not too far behind. Now let's see what magic rabbit Tyler Perry and Oprah will pull out of their hats.

Best Director: It's a good two days to be Kathryn Bigelow. But will she be the first ever female winner of the Best Director award? Something in my gut says no, especially with Jason Reitman and Clint Eastwood hot on her heels.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges is definitely the front runner. All the pieces seem to fit (a 4 time previous nominee, family is Hollywood royalty, playing a long suffering artist, the prime time to award his body of work, and a perfect Oscar winning role). I kinda wish that Colin Firth had taken the LA award because I think he needed a boost to really turn into a front runner. I am little bored by the choice of Clooney in NY. Clooney is up to his usual brilliance in Up in the Air, but it's a performance he could do in his sleep. I do like NY's joint mention of Fantastic Mr. Fox in Best Actor though. It seems like Bridges, Clooney, Freeman and Firth are locks. Day Lewis seems to be losing ground.

Best Acrtress: LA's choice of Yolande Moreau does not change the state of the race. LA has had a history of picking completely random performances to honor and those performances are no where to be seen or heard from again in the race. Case in point: 2005's Vera Farminga for Down to the Bone for Best Actress, 2006's Luminiţa Gheorghiu for The Death of Mr. Lazarescu for Best Supporting Actress, and 2007's Vlad Ivanov for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days for Best Supporting Actor. Enjoy the honor Yolande! New York, however, went to marvelous Meryl Streep. This award has really kicked off her campaign for a 3rd Oscar. However, I am inclined to say that at this point, this award is more than likely Carey Mulligan's!

Best Supporting Actor: Chris Waltz Chris Waltz Chris Waltz. We have a definitive front runner! The category looks like it will be filled out by Alfred Molina, Woody Harrelson, Stanley Tucci, and probably Christopher Plummer (who would become a first time Oscar nominee).


Best Supporting Actress: I said two weeks ago on TV that this race was over and that you could engrave Mo'Nique's name, apostrophe and all, on the statue already. Her double win proves this to me. If for some reason the academy gets its hate on for Precious, which I don't really see happening, Anna Kendrick is Mo's biggest threat!

Tomorrow are the Globe nominations! I will have a full set of predictions tonight!

The Air Apparent?

Is Up in the Air the heir apparent to the Best Picture statuette?

At this point it is tough to know, but it did jump out to a strong lead with the films win for Best Picture at the National Board of Review. It also won Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

Precious had been up to this point thought to be the Best Picture frontrunner, however it wasn’t even listed amongst the NBR top ten. A surprising snub especially when Star Trek, Where the Wild Things Are and (500) Days of Summer were included in the Top Ten. Also interesting was Best Supporting Actress frontrunner Mo’Nique snubbed in favor of Anna Kendrick. Precious was thrown a bone when Gabby Sidibe won Best Breakthrough Actress.

The Lovely Bones and Nine also lost a lot of ground in the race when both were left off the Top Ten list. I suspect Nine will still make it into the list of ten best picture nominees. However based on early reviews, I suspect The Lovely Bones will go belly up. I was also very surprised to see A Single Man left off the top ten list, however I think this is just an oversight and I don’t really think it will affect its ultimate Oscar chances.

It seems as though Invictus is the real deal. Clint and Morgan Freeman’s wins seem to confirm this. It’s safe to say Carey Mulligan is the official Best Actress frontrunner.

Bring on LA, New York, and Golden Globe noms please!