Monday, February 23, 2009

Miss Cleo of Oscar predictions?

Am I the Miss Cleo of Oscar predictions? Me thinks so. Yes I did go 6 for 6 in my major categories. Had I actually not been lazy and posted all my predictions, I would have done very very well. I would have called Milk and Slumdog for Screenplay, Wall E for Animation, and Man on Wire for Documentary. I would have however, never picked Departures for Best Foreign Language film. That was the surprise of the evening. The one and only surprise!

So were the 81st Academy Awards a hit or a miss? I would say they were a bit of both, but more hit if you ask me.

Let’s recap the best and worst moments.

It was a great night for homosexuality:
1. Hugh Jackman hosting!

2. Dustin Lance Black uttering the following upon winning Best Original Screenplay: "But most of all, if Harvey had not been taken from us 30 years ago, I think he would want me to say to all of the gay and lesbian kids out there tonight who have been told that they are less than by their churches or by the government or by their families, that you are beautiful, wonderful creatures of value, and that no matter what anyone tells you God does love you and that very soon I promise you, you will have equal rights federally across this great nation of ours.” It was a great big fuck you to the Mormon Church and to all opposed to prop 8 and I ate it up like a King Sized Burger King Combo.
3. Sean Penn also gave a shout out to the gays. "I think it is a good time for those who voted for the ban against gay marriage to sit and reflect, and anticipate their great shame, and the shame in their grandchildren's eyes if they continue that way of support. We've got to have equal rights for everyone.” As a gay man, anytime people can be called out for being disgustingly homophobic and prejudiced in a Globally televised event, ME LIKEY!
The opening number was fabulous. I totally dug the elementary school Christmas concert recession-inspired cardboard sets. And Anne Hathaway was beyond tolerable and actually quite impressive vocally.

I am a sucker for the previous year’s winner handing out the Oscars to this year’s winners, especially last year when Jennifer Hudson admirably bastardized HAVIERE BARDIM’s name! But I did love this year's new trend of the previous categories winners welcoming a sister or brother to their elite club. I could have dealt with one less Goldie “Banger Sister” Hawn in The Supporting Actress crowd though. It seemed a bit Oprah Gratitude journal with each previous winner gushing over a current nominee. But each nominee seemed to be overwhelmed with genuine emotion and that was a fabulous thing to see.
Whoopi Goldberg saying the sentence “It’s not easy being a nun” was particularly Delores Van Cartier!
Penelope Cruz’s speech was lovely and beautifully delivered, but she would still win my award for voice I’d least like to hear read the bible as a book on tape.*
Can Tina Fey ever do wrong? Honestly we could find out that Tina murdered JonBenet Ramsey and no one would care! We'd probably find it hilarious and adorable!

I can’t remember in what context, but Meryl Streep flexed her muscles. I was waiting for a Mamma Mia cannon ball, but not even that would have saved that awful MUSICAL IS BACK medley.

Speaking of the musical is back medley, nothing could have put a Buffy-like stake through the heart of the movie musical like that fucking awful number. That number officially halted at least ten potential movie musicals from ever happening. No to Beyoncebot! No to Zacquisha! And no to the Mamma Mia couple who looked like about as comfortable as Jennifer “Please love me” Aniston feet away from Brangelina. Who thought that was a good idea? Apparently Baz Luhrmann!
Best Supporting Actor winner Heath Ledger’s families' acceptance and dedication to his Matilda was beautiful. But Cuba Gooding Jr. inclusion of one of the five previous Best Supporting Actor winners was anything but. Seriously Academy, you are going to ask the star of Snowdogs, Boat Cruise, and Radio to present an Oscar to Heath Ledger. WTF? If there were ever a reason to invent a time machine, it would be to go back and rip that Oscar out of CGJr’s hack hands!
Ben Stiller as Joaquin Pheonix did not work, however Natalie Portman as my heterosexual crush does!
Man on Wire guy’s magic trick and balancing illusion had nothing on Gob Bluth, but they were still pretty great!
I loved that Japanese man who actually said “Domō Arigatō Mr. Roboto” because I am all in favor of highlighting national stereotypes. Next time please except in a kimono Karaoke-styles Mr. Kato, that is if you’re feet binding will allow you to walk to the podium.
HE looked AMAZING!
Kate Winslet won Best Actress and rightfully so. I wouldn’t have been opposed to a Meryl come from behind victory. I also loved her calling out to her dad to whistle to let her know where he was. So human and great. Can’t imagine you’d see that between Jolie and Voight. Just sayin’
Even though Mickey Rourke sadly lost, he lost to a worthy opponent. And it was nice to see Sean Penn actually have a sense of humor about himself for once. Spicoli lives!
Slumdog won 8 Awards and I am more than okay with that. As a gay, I would have preferred Milk but I always root for the underdog.
So that’s the end of this year’s Oscar race! Bring on 09! In fact bring on Nine! Hopefully tag team Day Lewis-Cotillard-Dench-Kidman-Loren-Cruz-&Fergie do not disappoint and prove that the musical is still, in fact, a living and kicking beast!

*joke care of Heidi Brander.

Friday, February 20, 2009

Slumdog, Boyle, Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Cruz!

That’s where I would place my bets, if I was a betting man. If I was more of a gambler I’d go with Mickey Rourke but I am definitely more conservative, religiously, politically and Oscar racially.

Here are my official final predictions:

Best Picture-
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s been unbeatable at this point. It’s won everything in sight. Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, DGA, SAG. It’s the little picture that could, did and will.
Should win: Milk
Sure it was a pretty standard biopic, but it was pretty fucking incredible. It was superbly shot and brilliantly performed. This is where my vote would go.
Possible spoiler: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It leads the nomination race, but this will not happen.
Should have been nominated: WALL-E
Animated or not it’s still the best movie of 2008.

Best Director –
Will win: Danny Boyle
No contest here. He is has lapped every other contender in this category.

Should win: Danny Boyle
His work on this film was first rate. It was beautifully shot, well paced, and equal parts hilarious, charming and touching.

Possible spoiler: ---------------
No one will beat Danny Boyle so this is a waste of words on this blog.

Should have been nominated: Andrew Stanton
Andrew Stanton has made brilliant film after brilliant film with WALL E potentially being his magnum opus thus far. When will the Academy ignore the idea that an animated film deserves recognition in the Animated Feature category only?

Best Actor –
Will win: Sean Penn
This is the race of the night and will create the most drama. I can’t think of a Best Actor race this hotly contested since the 2002 trio of Nicholson, Brody and Day-Lewis. This is me playing it conservative and going for the safe choice. Penn was phenomenal in Milk and does deserve to win. The Academy has thrown tons of support in Milk’s direction and this (along with Best Original Screenplay) is where they can reward it.
Should win: Mickey Rourke
Mickey Rourke’s performance is the best performance of the year or any year, in my opinion. The film is his performance along the lines of DeNiro in Raging Bull or Marlon Brando in The Godfather. It really would be the ultimate comeback story. But can Oscar really welcome Mickey Rourke to their elite club? Something in my gut tells me no. However, I remember predicting the conservative choice in Julie Christie for Best Actress last year and we all know how that ended up.

Possible spoiler: Mickey Rourke
Honestly at this point it’s a toss up.

Should have been nominated: Leonardo Dicaprio
I will never truly understand the lack of love for Revolutionary Road. It was Leo’s most mature and commanding performance to date.

Best Actress -
Will win: Kate Winslet
It’s about time! How is Hilary Swank a two time winner and Kate Winslet is a 5 time loser? She had two brilliant performances in 2008 and she’s her generation’s finest actress. While I would have preferred she won for Revolutionary Road, beggars can’t be choosers.
Should win: Anyone but Angelina.
I think this category is pretty incredible this year. Streep was over the top, but still better than anyone else. Winslet’s performance was subtle and heartbreaking. Hathaway was surprising and moving. And Melissa Leo literally became Ray Eddy. I am still not over Sally Hawkins snub though. I may never be.
Possible spoiler: Melissa Leo
If for some reason Oscar voters can’t decide between Meryl or Kate, I seriously believe that a Melissa Leo win is not out of the question.
Should have been nominated: Sally Hawkins
For creating the most interesting, original and believable character seen on screen in 2008.

Best Supporting Actor -
Will win: Heath Ledger
Not just because he died but because it was a jaw dropping brilliant performance. Whoever thought the Joker could be so complex, tortured and brilliantly insane. A beyond belief performance

Should win: Heath Ledger
DUH!
Possible spoiler: Hell freezing over

Deserved a nomination: David Kross & Bill Irwin.
Both Irwin and Kross delivered superb supporting performances but they were overshadowed by their more famous costars and never got any buzz to really throw their hats in the ring.

Best Supporting Acress -
Will win: Penelope Cruz
Supporting Actress Awards typically goes to a 20 or 30’s something beautiful woman (Judi Dench aside). The award in this category also likes to often go to a performance from a Woody Allen film. When Winslet was bumped up to lead category for The Reader, this award was literally put in the hands of Cruz. She won most of the film critic awards and is a previous nominee, so I can’t see how she could lose.
Should win: Amy Adams
Before you jump down my throat and tell me to get over my obsession of Enchanted, I must say that I think Amy Adams did the most interesting work in the category. She made some fascinating choices and turned a thankless role into something with legitimate meat and substance. In the play Doubt, Sister James is a sounding board for Sister Aloysius, however here Adams turns Sister James into the moral compass of the film.
Possible spoiler: Viola Davis
Oscar loves a scene-stealer! Ask Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight. So if any one is going to trip up Penelope Cruz’s trip to the podium, it’s going to be Viola Davis in her 10 minute long, mucous filled, firework erupting confrontation with Meryl Streep.
Should have been nominated: Rosemarie Dewitt
Dewitt goes head to toe with Hathaway and delivers! I still can’t believe she didn’t get attention for this performance.

That’s it for the major categories. Stay tuned for minor categories!

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

WORST BLOGGER EVER!

I was such a good blogger for so long. I even blogged twice on Oscar nomination morning before 12 noon. But it seems as though work, you know that thing that helps you buy things you want, has gotten in the way. BLAME IT ALL ON THIS TV SHOW THAT EMPLOYS ME:

I have also been spending a ton of personal time focused on figure skating as it is a pre-Olympic year. I traveled to Vancouver to watch the Four Continents figure skating championships and I also hosted a US Nationals party aptly titled SHE FALLS, YOU DRINK!

Work and Elvis Stojko aside, much has happened since I last blogged and since we are a mere 5 days away from Oscar I figured. I should do a quick photo recap of all that has gone down Oscar race and Oscar race related.

Meryl Streep won a SAG and delivered perhaps the best speech of the award season. She also wore a pantsuit that was quite striking.

Mickey Rourke won a BAFTA, which was a great victory to see. I am really hoping for an Oscar win.

Kate Winslet picks up both SAG and BAFTA for The Reader, which makes it virtually impossible for her to lose Oscar.

Slumdog wins everything in sight including SAG ensemble (which is complete bullshit in my opinion).

I rewatched Rachel Getting Married on my plane to Vancouver and thought it was pretty great upon a second viewing. I also though Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger were robbed.

AND PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANTLY THIS HAPPENED:


Oscars are five days away so this blog is now going to go into hyper drive with at least a blog a day. Christmas is on Sunday after all.