Globe/SAG Reactions!

Above is a picture of me titled as an Oscar blogger on Canada's version of Entertainment Tonight, however I am an impostor because I haven't blogged in over a week and I have no excuse beyond gaying out with my boyfriend and Christmas shopping for BBC miniseries for my mom.

So here's a long overdue blog concerning the recent Globe and SAG noms and how they effect the Oscar race overall.

Best Picture:

Welcome back to the race Inglorious Basterds. I had really completely written off Inglorious Basterds and it seems like it will be a major contender after all. I thought The Hurt Locker would be more of an also ran in the Oscar race. I didn't think it had the power to win big, but now it seems like a neck and neck race between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. Up in the Air was snubbed for Best ensemble at the SAGs, but it doesn't really effect its ultimate chance in my opinion. Nine still seems very much in the race despite it's incredible cold to luke warm reviews. The fact that the HFPA loves a musical and its ensemble could not be denied of a SAG nom, it will more than likely make it into Best Picture. The Globes and SAGs have officially sentenced The Lovely Bones to the same fate as the film's lead character. Interesting that Invictus was left out of Best Picture at the Globes, while Eastwood, Freeman, and Damon were all nominated. Precious made a nice appearance at the Globes and SAGs, despite the fact that Lee Daniels was left out of the Globe Director race. A Single Man didn't factor as much as I thought it would. The Globes left it out of Best Picture and Director and SAGs failed to nominate Julianne Moore. I think Avatar will factor hugely in this race. The Globes or SAGs were not where it was expected to garner a ton of support. Here's who I think will be the ten nominees:

The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Up
Invictus
Nine
Avatar
Precious
An Education
(500) Days of Summer

Best Actor

Not major shocks here. The 5 I expected before these nominations are still the 5 that I believe will be the final five. The SAGs snubbed Day-Lewis, which I didn't expect. I don't think The Academy will do the same. But if anyone is going to get his spot, it will be Jeremy Renner.

Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

Best Actress

Big confirmation here is that Sandra Bullock is the real deal for Best Actress. I feel confident in saying that Sandy will be a Best Actress nominee. 15 years after Speed, Sandra Bullock's two movies make over 300 million dollars at the box office and she gets her first ever Best Actress nomination. Not such a bad time to be her, right? I was surprised to see Helen Mirren's support for The Last Station, a film that has received virtually no buzz except for the fact that it stars Mirren and Plummer. I am sad to see Saoirse Ronan left off both lists. I haven't seen The Lovely Bones, but I was a major fan of the novel and think that Ronan is a spectacular performer. But I guess not everyone can have two Oscar nominations by age 15. This race is still a 3 way race. But I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think anyone can touch Carey Mulligan.

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor -

No major shake ups here. Christoph Waltz is clearly going to win. I again am surprised to see Plummer recognized, but it would be nice for him to receive his first ever Oscar nom. It would also be nice if Alec Baldwin had been nommed. Hopefully the Academy will nominate him so that we have that great opportunity for the host/nominee tension and excitement.

Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress -

I felt that this category was practically written in stone from the get go. I thought maybe Farminga would be pushed out by Dench or a category shift by Cotillard. But I feel safe in saying that the final 5 will be who I expected them to be. Interesting that Moore was snubbed by the SAGs in favor of Diane Kruger. This will not happen with the Academy who adore nominated Julianne Moore. (They just don't adore giving her an Oscar).

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Vera Farminga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Best Director -

I have no clue how this will play out come Oscar. I can't imagine that Kathryn Bigelow will be the first ever female winner of Best Director. I just don't think the old boys club is ready for that quite yet. However I do expect the nominees to be:

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds

This isn't such a bad line up?

The Oscar race settles down a little bit for the holidays. Next up we have National Society of Film Critics and more precursors. Also upcoming is the year 2010, which means we are starting a new decade, which also means I need to start my best of the decade lists of films and performances. Did I mention I love this time of year?

Globe Predictions

I actually have to talk about the Golden Globe nominations effect on the Oscar on Canada's version of Entertainment Tonight tomorrow. I'd like to think that I am on my way to becoming Canada's Dave Karger. The above is a picture of him on the set of the Today responding to the Globe noms two years ago. Also pictured are Ellen Page getting a bouquet of roses from Matt Lauer. I hope that a similar scene happens to me tomorrow but chances are of this happening... are... not... so... great. Sigh!

I love this time of year so much. This week is especially juicy because of daily award and nomination announcements. Yesterday was LA, today Broadcast Critic noms and NY awards, tomorrow Golden Globes, and Thursday SAG noms. It's so much fun for me!

Here are my Golden Globe predictions.
Best Picture - Drama

The Hurt Locker
Avatar
Precious
Up in the Air
Inglourious Basterds

Best Picture - Musical/Comedy

Nine
The Hangover
It's Complicated
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man

Best Director

James Cameron - Avatar
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Lee Daniels - Precious
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

Best Actor - Drama

Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Geoge Clooney - Up in the Air

Best Actor - Musical/Comedy

Daniel Day Lewis - Nine
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man
Joseph Gordon-Levitt -(500) Days of Summer
Bradley Cooper - The Hangover
Matt Damon - The Informant

Best Actress - Drama

Carey Mulligan - An Education
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones

Best Actress - Musical/Comedy

Meryl Streep - It's Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie and Julie
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Zooey Deschannel - (500) Days of Summer

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Stanley Tucci - Julie and Julia
Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farminga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Mariah Carey - Precious

And that's that.

We shall see.

From L.A. to New York - from New York to L.A

Things have just gotten plenty interesting in 2009's Oscar Race with The Hurt Locker being awarded the Best Picture Award by both LA and New York film critics.

Here are the major winners from both groups:


LA:

Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Runner-up: “Up in the Air”

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Runner-up: Michael Haneke, “The White Ribbon”

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Runner-up: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”

Best Actress: Yolande Moreau, “Séraphine”
Runner-up: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Runner-up: Peter Capaldi, “In the Loop”

Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Runner-up: Anna Kendrick, “Up in the Air”



New York:

Best Picture
“The Hurt Locker”

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actor
George Clooney, “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “Up in the Air”

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

So what should we make of these decisions and their ultimate effect on Oscar?

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker jumps out to the lead in the Best Picture race with Up in the Air, Invictus and Precious not too far behind. Now let's see what magic rabbit Tyler Perry and Oprah will pull out of their hats.

Best Director: It's a good two days to be Kathryn Bigelow. But will she be the first ever female winner of the Best Director award? Something in my gut says no, especially with Jason Reitman and Clint Eastwood hot on her heels.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges is definitely the front runner. All the pieces seem to fit (a 4 time previous nominee, family is Hollywood royalty, playing a long suffering artist, the prime time to award his body of work, and a perfect Oscar winning role). I kinda wish that Colin Firth had taken the LA award because I think he needed a boost to really turn into a front runner. I am little bored by the choice of Clooney in NY. Clooney is up to his usual brilliance in Up in the Air, but it's a performance he could do in his sleep. I do like NY's joint mention of Fantastic Mr. Fox in Best Actor though. It seems like Bridges, Clooney, Freeman and Firth are locks. Day Lewis seems to be losing ground.

Best Acrtress: LA's choice of Yolande Moreau does not change the state of the race. LA has had a history of picking completely random performances to honor and those performances are no where to be seen or heard from again in the race. Case in point: 2005's Vera Farminga for Down to the Bone for Best Actress, 2006's Luminiţa Gheorghiu for The Death of Mr. Lazarescu for Best Supporting Actress, and 2007's Vlad Ivanov for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days for Best Supporting Actor. Enjoy the honor Yolande! New York, however, went to marvelous Meryl Streep. This award has really kicked off her campaign for a 3rd Oscar. However, I am inclined to say that at this point, this award is more than likely Carey Mulligan's!

Best Supporting Actor: Chris Waltz Chris Waltz Chris Waltz. We have a definitive front runner! The category looks like it will be filled out by Alfred Molina, Woody Harrelson, Stanley Tucci, and probably Christopher Plummer (who would become a first time Oscar nominee).


Best Supporting Actress: I said two weeks ago on TV that this race was over and that you could engrave Mo'Nique's name, apostrophe and all, on the statue already. Her double win proves this to me. If for some reason the academy gets its hate on for Precious, which I don't really see happening, Anna Kendrick is Mo's biggest threat!

Tomorrow are the Globe nominations! I will have a full set of predictions tonight!

The Air Apparent?

Is Up in the Air the heir apparent to the Best Picture statuette?

At this point it is tough to know, but it did jump out to a strong lead with the films win for Best Picture at the National Board of Review. It also won Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

Precious had been up to this point thought to be the Best Picture frontrunner, however it wasn’t even listed amongst the NBR top ten. A surprising snub especially when Star Trek, Where the Wild Things Are and (500) Days of Summer were included in the Top Ten. Also interesting was Best Supporting Actress frontrunner Mo’Nique snubbed in favor of Anna Kendrick. Precious was thrown a bone when Gabby Sidibe won Best Breakthrough Actress.

The Lovely Bones and Nine also lost a lot of ground in the race when both were left off the Top Ten list. I suspect Nine will still make it into the list of ten best picture nominees. However based on early reviews, I suspect The Lovely Bones will go belly up. I was also very surprised to see A Single Man left off the top ten list, however I think this is just an oversight and I don’t really think it will affect its ultimate Oscar chances.

It seems as though Invictus is the real deal. Clint and Morgan Freeman’s wins seem to confirm this. It’s safe to say Carey Mulligan is the official Best Actress frontrunner.

Bring on LA, New York, and Golden Globe noms please!

It's a time for Thanksgiving!

Even though I am only half American and I live in Canada and I probably grabbing popcorn (for a Precious screening) instead having turkey dinner tonight, it is still a time of Thanksgiving.

...Because

The Oscars are about 100 days away.

Here are my updated predictions!

BEST PICTURE
The Hurt Locker
Precious
Nine
Up in the Air
A Single Man
UP!
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
An Education
Avatar

Best Director
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels - Precious
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Rob Marshall - Nine

Best Actor
Daniel Day Lewis - Nine
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
Colin Firth - A Single Man
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Morgan Freeman - Invictus

Best Actress
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
Gabby Sidibe - Precious
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones

Best Supporting Actor
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Alec Baldwin - It's Complicated
Matt Damon - Invictus
Christopher Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
Christian MacKay - Me and Orson Welles

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Judi Dench - Nine
Mo'Nique - Precious
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

The Academy A-boreds!

It’s that time of year when week after week Oscar contenders are released into theatres. We soon discover which ones will factor and which ones won’t. There is seriously not enough time to see all the contenders as they are released back to back to back to back. However, this year is different.

I am incredibly bored by the Oscar race this year.

It feels considerably cooler in my opinion. The Best Picture race has expanded to 10 nominees, but is there really 10 rewarding pictures? I think the Academy will be stretched pretty thin to find 5 let alone 10. Will the Academy nominate Star Trek or Where The Wild Things Are?

It is still early, but usually we have clear favorites by this point. I can’t even think of who the potential Best Supporting Actor nominees could be? Who beyond Mo’Nique is considered other front runners? Will Avatar, The Lovely Bones, Nine and Invictus be the real deal or fizzle?

Here is what I do know at this point:

Amelia is completely out of the race. It’s the Australia of this year. And where was the promotional campaign? I am a movie buff and never even heard about this movie being released!

It’s seems as though Best Actress will be a race between Carey Mulligan and Meryl Streep. But both their movies seem to have lost steam.

It’s seems as though Best Supporting Actress will break down thusly: Mo’Nique. Vera Framinga and Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air. And probably two of the NINE ladies. With outside shots being Mariah Carey for Precious, Julianne Moore for A Single Man and Susan Sarandon for The Lovely Bones.

It’s safe to say Up in the Air and A Single Man will factor into this race based on the buzz out of Toronto.

But come on Oscar race, you and I are old friends. Won’t you heat up a bit? Or won’t you at least give me advance screening passes to NINE!

Mo' No You Didn't!

March 7th, 2010 I would not be surprised to hear the following: "And the Oscar goes to Mo'Nique for Precious"

Of course we are only in October and we still have to wait for the big question marks of the Oscar race to be released (Nine, The Lovely Bones, Invictus) but I would say of all potential Oscar races, the Supporting Actress race is the only one with one strong front runner at this point.

And that front runner is the author of the book Skinny Women Are Evil: Notes of a Big Girl in a Small-Minded World and the former star of UPN's The Parkers.

Yes Mo'Nique could definitely win an Oscar. Stranger things have happened. I mean, who would have thought that American Idol's Jennifer Hudson would be an Oscar winner.

However Mo'Nique is currently shooting herself in the foot. Reports have surfaced that Mo'Nique will not do any PR for the film. A source told the New York Daily News, "Mo'Nique said she signed on to do this film for a small amount of money. She said she didn't care about 'no Oscar' — all that mattered was 'those Benjamins!' Because Oprah and Tyler Perry are backing the film, she feels as though there should be a budget to pay for her promotional duties."

Apparently Mo'Nique thinks that because Perry and Lady O are involved that she somehow deserves 100 000 grand per appearance and first class treatment for her entire entourage.

Mo'Nique was absent from Toronto and New York premieres of the film, while her costars, certain Best Actress nominee Gabby Sidibe and Mariah Carey, have been promoting the film for free.

NOT SMART Mo'Nique!

Mo'Nique commented on the situation herself, saying "When people say, 'You care more about money than winning an Oscar,' well, what does an Oscar mean? An Oscar means more work when you win it, and that means more money! I couldn't eat that Oscar. Everybody needs money, baby. That's how we survive, right?"

Mo'Nique better shape up! She should know that becoming an Oscar winner is far more important in the long run financially. Or maybe she's not smart enough to realize this.

I hope she gets a stern phone call from Oprah this week and she changes her tune and price or else the Oscar will end up in Julianne Moore's hands.

Good/Not Good

The Emmy Awards were last night. This is what I am deeming good and not good about the ceremony and award winners.

GOOD:

This was amazing!
Alec Baldwin won and that is good.

30 Rock wins Best Comedy and Mad Men wins Best Drama and that's the way it should be.

While I thought some of his material sucked and fell flat, Neil Patrick Harris was a great host and I do love the return of this Fred Astaire song and dance man as award show host.

I loved that Ben finally won an Emmy because he is one of the best villains on TV. I also love that he is married to Arlene from True Blood.


NOT GOOD:

I am a musical theatre fag, but I can't stand Kristin Chenoweth. I'm sorry but Ms. Chenoweth is 41 years old and is it just or does she permanently behave like she is a Sesame Street character. And you have the nerve to steal an Emmy from Kristen Wiig. NOT GOOD!
"Emmy Award Winner Jon Cryer." This is wrong in so many ways.

This person's issues with inhaling were not good.

Tina Fey wins an Emmy for playing Sarah Palin but loses Best Actress in a Comedy Series. I love Toni Collette, but this is Liz Lemon we are talking about.

This dress was not good.

Overall these Emmy Awards were fine. They could have been a lot worse. I think I might not predict winners for the Emmys. I never do well and there seems to be no real rhyme or reason in who wins. Mayhaps next year I'll just draw names out of a hat.

Bring on the Oscars!

Emmy Award Predictions

I hate the above picture more than I can even explain!

I don't know what I was thinking, but I thought the Emmys were next weekend. I need to stop drinking.

The Emmys are apparently on Sunday. I feel ashamed because I am not upholding the tube part of this blog as well as I should. So here's my sorry ass attempt to be a better blogger.

I always find predicting Emmys particularly difficult because I really don't understand why Emmy voters vote the way they do. I.E. Doris Roberts 4 Emmys for Everybody Loves Raymond (see disgusting photo above). Kim Cattrall 0 Emmys for Sex in the City. That makey no sensey to me!

There are some categories that I am really just taking a stab in the dark at, but here goes:

Best Drama
It will be nice to see the best drama on TV win the award for the best drama on TV.

Best ComedyAgain, it will be nice to see the best comedy on TV win the award for the best comedy on TV.

Best Actor- Drama
I just have a hunch that he will win because he never has and Emmy voters seem to really like him. And he is kind of the show.

Best Actor- ComedyAfter watching Baldwin's Generalissimo episode yesterday, I can't predict anyone else for the win. It just feels wrong to do so. However, I have a strong feeling I will Jim Parsons the day I predicted Baldwin.

Best Actress- DramaEasy. Fingers crossed for a Elisabeth Moss shocker! (wait that sounds dirty)

Best Actress- ComedyNow I love Muriel Heslop to death, but Liz Lemon is a goddess.

Best Supporting Actor- Drama
I have no clue. But I'll say Aaron Paul.

Best Supporting Actor - ComedyHe's hosting and it would be awkward if he didn't win. Come on Emmy Voters don't Jenna Elfman him!

Best Supporting Actress - DramaAgain I have no clue. But I'll say Wiest because she won last year.

Best Supporting Actress- ComedyI want to predict Wiig or Krakowski. SIGH!

I am not getting into other categories because it cuts into my drinking time. I expect maybe half of these to be correct. Only time will tell...

And it begins: First Oscar predictions of 2009

TIFF is here. That makes me happy because it means that Oscar season is officially upon us.

TIFF means that summer is officially over, but it means critic awards and the actuality of "Oscar nominee Mo'Nique" are almost upon us.

I figured since we are now half way through TIFF and I have been an incredibly lazy blogger, I would now start my first official Oscar predictions of the season.

It'll be incredibly fun to see which ones of these will fall completely off the wayside and who will enter the derby at a later date.

So here goes.

Best Picture

The Hurt Locker
UP
Nine
Precious
Up in the Air
A Serious Man
Invictus
The Lovely Bones
An Education
A Single Man

Best Director

Rob Marshall for Nine
Jason Reitman for Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood for Invictus
Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor

Morgan Freeman for Invictus
Daniel Day Lewis for Nine
George Clooney for Up in the Air
Matt Damon for The Informant
Colin Firth for A Single Man

Best Actress

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia
Carey Mulligan for An Education
Saoirse Ronan for The Lovely Bones
Gabourey Sidibe for Precious
Abby Cornish for Bright Star

Best Supporting Actor

Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon for Invictus
Christoph Waltz for Inglorious Basterds
Alfred Molina for An Education
Richard King for A Serious Man

Best Supporting Actress

Julianne Moore for A Single Man
Penelope Cruz for Nine
Marion Cotillard for Nine
Mo'Nique for Precious
Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air

So these are incredibly early picks and they've also made me realize that this year definitely doesn't pack the power and punch of the past couple of years. Hopefully a couple of wildcards like A Single Man, Get Low, and Everything's Fine will mix things up. And who the f knows about Malick's The Tree of Life. With Shutter Island moving to 2010, it's looking like a kind of dull Oscar race and I am starting to consider the idea of Academy Award winner Mo'Nique as a real possibility.