Updated Oscar predictions.

Here are my post NBoR, NY, LA, Globe and SAG Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

Black Swan
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
The Town
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
True Grit

Best Director

Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network

Best Actor

James Franco - 127 Hours
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Jeff Bridges - True Grit

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Jeremy Renner - The Town
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Original Screenplay

The King's Speech
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Another Year

Adapted Screenplay

Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
True Grit

Well played SAGs

Earlier this week, a laughable list Golden Globe nominees were announced. Today, it was SAG's turn to announce their nomination list. Kudos to SAG for coming up with a pretty inspired list of nominees.

Here's who they went for:
Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Male Actor, Leading
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 hours
Female Actor, Leading
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Male Actor, Supporting
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jon Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Female Actor, Supporting
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailey Steinfeld, True Grit

Here are my overall thoughts:

-I think the ensemble nominees are strong although I am surprised to see both Inception and The Town, both particularly strong ensemble films, off the list.

- Black Swan & The Fighter seem assured a Best Pic nom after its strong showing at the BFCA, the Globes and here.

- True Grit makes a strong statement after being completely ignored by The Globes.

-I like the Robert Duvall- Get Low mention. SAG kept his dwindling Oscar hopes alive.

-Hilary Swank???????? Over Michelle Williams, Lesley Manville, Sally Hawkins and even Noomi Rapace. I guess Bening can't really be competitive in an Oscar race without Swank somehow being involved.

- I am thrilled with the John Hawkes nomination. He so deserves accolades for his incredible character work in Winter's Bone. It's still an uphill battle to make it into this category at the Oscars, but this certainly helps.

- Renner looks more and more like a lock every day for his work in The Town. I still expect Garfield to make it into the Oscar race. This is just a minor omission.

- Jacki Weaver is snubbed here, which is surprising because she was recognized by the starfucking Globes.

- Mila Kunis keeps gaining momentum, while co-star Barbara Hershey's chances are quickly diminishing.

- It looks more and more likely that Melissa Leo is going to win an Oscar.


What a week! I am spent. But I will update my official Oscar predictions in the wake of these incredible busy past 5 days.

Golden G-LOL-bes

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group responsible for the Golden Globe Awards, is a joke. The 90 person strong association has virtually no clout whatsoever. It is still a mystery to me what they actually do. I think (based on what I've read) that they write about films in foreign publications but I am more inclined to say (based on their year after year behavior) that they are essentially star fuckers, so keen to whore their award ceremony to staple red carpet celebs than actual deserving films and performances. Their credibility is constantly in question and they are inching closer and closer to The People Choice Awards ridiculousness.

This year may have been their lowest of lows. Seriously their list of nominees was bad! Let's look at this year's list:


Best Motion Picture, Drama:

‘Black Swan’
‘The Fighter’
‘Inception’
‘The King’s Speech’
‘The Social Network’

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

‘Alice in Wonderland’
‘Burlesque’
‘The Kids Are All Right’
‘Red’
‘The Tourist’

Best Director – Motion Picture:

Darren Aronofsky, ‘Black Swan’
David Fincher, ‘Social Network’
Tom Hooper – ‘The King’s Speech’
Christopher Nolan ‘Inception’
David O. Russell – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actor
in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Jesse Eisenberg – ‘Social Network’
Colin Firth – ‘The King’s Speech’
James Franco – ‘127 Hours’
Ryan Gosling – ‘Blue Valentine’
Mark Wahlberg – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Halle Berry, ‘Frankie and Alice’
Nicole Kidman, ‘Rabbit Hole’
Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Winter’s Bone’
Natalie Portman, ‘Black Swan’
Michelle Williams, ‘Blue Valentine’

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Johnny Depp – ‘Alice in Wonderland’
Johnny Depp – ‘The Tourist’
Paul Giamatti – ‘Barney’s Version’
Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Kevin Spacey – ‘Casino Jack’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Annette Bening, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Anne Hathaway, ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Angelina Jolie, ‘The Tourist’
Julianne Moore, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Emma Stone, ‘Easy A’

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:

Christian Bale, ‘The Fighter’
Michael Douglas, ‘Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps’
Andrew Garfield, ‘The Social Network’
Jeremy Renner, ‘The Town’
Geoffrey Rush, ‘The King’s Speech’

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:

Amy Adams, ‘The Fighter’
Helena Bonham Carter, ‘The King’s Speech’
Mila Kunis, ‘Black Swan’
Melissa Leo, ‘The Fighter’
Jacki Weaver, ‘Animal Kingdom’


I don't find the Drama nominations all that terrible. But where is True Grit? And why is Halle Berry nominated for the little seen Frankie and Alice? Oh that's right, because she'll look beautiful in reaction shots during the ceremony. And no offense to Michael Douglas, but that nomination is really a sympathy nom and everyone knows that. Mila Kunis was fine in Black Swan, but over co-star Barbara Hershey and the mesmerizing Marion Cotillard in Inception.

The Comedy nominations are beyond ridiculous. I'd actually be embarrassed to be a member of the HFPA based on that list alone. Let's start with The Tourist getting nominated for Best Picture. The Tourist is a thriller, not a comedy. It's not Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which I would have happily welcomed comedy nominations from in 2005. Let's continue with Burlesque for Best Picture. The HFPA goes gaga for musicals, but come on! Alice in Wonderland for Best Pictre? It was dreadful and completely devoid of any heart. And I don't really consider The Kids Are All Right a comedy, but to each their own. The only comedy nomination that I am fully in support of is Emma Stone in Easy A. A total break out lead comedy performance. If Bening wasn't in her category, I'd say she'd have a shot.

So who is on the up and up and who is on the outs after these nominations were announced? True Grit was no where to be seen but I don't think that's a major problem. The HFPA aren't major fans of the Coen Brothers. Lesley Manville and Mike Leigh's Another Year seems to be losing considerable steam.I think it's safe to say that Sally Hawkins/Miranda Richardson and Made in Dagenham are officially out. 127 Hours seemed at one point to be a major front runner but I think that the buzz seems to have shifted just to Franco's performance. Let's hope that it shifts back to Danny Boyle's great directorial effort in the next few weeks. Blue Valentine got a major boost with both Gosling and Williams' nominations. I think The Fighter and Black Swan have proven that they are major contenders beyond Portman and Bale's performances. And we know that The Social Network and The King's Speech are still the films, neck and neck, leading the pack.

Next up SAG.

They like it. They really, really like it.

This is a major week for the Oscar season. LA Film Critics Awards were announced yesterday. New York Film Awards announced today as did the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Tomorrow the Golden Globe nominees are announced. And Thursday the SAG nominees are announced. Not to mention Boston (and many other cities) and the AFI group have announced their years best as well.

One thing seems to be pretty consistent. The Social Network is the unanimous pick for the Best Film of the Year. LA, New York, National Board of Review, Boston, Southeastern Film Critics, New York Film Critics online, Indiana Film Journalists have all called the film the best of the year. I think it's safe to say it may be the frontrunner for Best Picture in the race.

Let's breakdown what happened in LA and NY.

LA:

PICTURE:

* “The Social Network”
* Runner-up: “Carlos”

DIRECTOR:

* Olivier Assayas, “Carlos,” and David Fincher, “The Social Network” (tie)

ACTOR:

* Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
* Runner-up: Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos”

ACTRESS:

* Kim Hye-ja, “Mother”
* Runner-up: Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

* Niels Arestrup, “A Prophet”
* Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

* Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
* Runner-up: Olivia Williams, “The Ghost Writer”

SCREENPLAY:

* Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
* Runner-up: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

No suprise that The Social Network did well here. Colin Firth picks up some steam with his first big win. Kim Hye-ja takes the award from Jennifer Lawrence, who could really have used the win to make her become a serious contender in the race and not just a member of the pack. I don't expect Hye-ja to really factor in the race as LA always throws out some seriously obscure picks in acting races that never factor beyond the day that LA announces its awards. Think Vera Farmiga in 2005 for Down to the Bone and last years winner Yolande Moreau for Seraphine. Again LA goes obscure for Niels Arestrup for a film that was nominated in last year's foreign film race and is ineligible this year. Jacki Weaver picks up her second major award (she won NBoR) last week and cements herself as a definite contender in that race.

New York:

Best Film:
The Social Network

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Screenplay:
The Kids Are All Right

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

New York also goes for The Social Network and seems to have shown a lot of love to The Kids Are All Right. Colin Firth picks up his second major win and solidifies himself as the definitive man to beat in the Best Actor category. I am very surprised to see Natalie Portman lose this particular award to Annette Bening. Black Swan is so New York and I thought that the critics would recognize the city where this amazing performances takes place. Last week I kept saying "No one will beat Natalie." While I still believe this, I think the category is a little tighter than I would have thought. Ruffalo is definitely picking up a nod for his work in TKAAR, despite my thoughts that he might get edged out of the top five. And fantastic character actress Melissa Leo takes her first big award for The Fighter. I think this might actually make her the front runner.

Also today The BFCA nominations came out:

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
James Franco – “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling – “Blue Valentine”

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Noomi Rapace – “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield – “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Sam Rockwell – “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver – “Animal Kingdom”

I think most of these lineups will match most of the Oscar line ups. Black Swan leading the nomination list is a very good thing as most of the buzz seemed to be about Natalie and not the film up to this point. The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Kid's Are All Right, The Fighter and True Grit are also well represented here. It seems as though buzz for Another Year and Lesley Manville is slowly dying. It's also definite that Sally Hawkins or Miranda Richardson will not factor in this year's race for Made in Dagenham. I would have seen some love for John Hawkes and Dale Dickey here, but perhaps SAG will make up for it. I have to say also that the most inspired nomination here is Noomi Rapace, who was excellent in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. This is probably where her mild Oscar buzz will die, but it's nice when a group like the BFC rewards excellent work that deserves to be rewarded.

Golden Globes tomorrow will solve a lot of mysteries in this race. Can't wait.

And we're off!

National Board of Review named their top movies of the year yesterday and The Social Network really cleaned up. Here are there awards recipients:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
Best Documentary: Waiting for “Superman”
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Ensemble Cast: The Town
Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Debut Directors: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo
Spotlight Award: Sylvain Chomet and Jacques Tati, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere
William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin


Top Eleven Films (In alphabetical order): Another Year, The Fighter, Hereafter, Inception, The King’s Speech, Shutter Island, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone


Obviously The Social Network is now out in front in terms of Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. However the biggest surprise here is the victory of Jesse Eisenberg, who many were considering an outside shot at getting into the Best Actor category. Now he is a definitive contender possibly bumping Ryan Gosling out of the top 5. I think Christian Bale's win cements him as the front runner. Lesley Manville and Jacki Weaver needed these wins to really factor into their respective races and now they are forces to be reckoned with.

It's very interesting to see a lack of love for Black Swan and 127 Hours here. Black Swan's buzz right now is pretty deafening and Hereafter and Shutter Island over 127 Hours, sure whatever you say NBoR! I am also starting to believe that The Town has a definite outside shot at getting into the Best Pic race.
I am about 5 hours away from seeing Black Swan and the excitement is overwhelming. Ballet sexual thriller starring Natalie Portman, Winona Ryder, and Barbara Hershey. This is going to be fun.

Independent Spirit Award Nominations Reaction.

The phenomenal Winter's Bone led the Indie Spirit noms yesterday with 7 nominations, while The Kids Are All Right followed with 5 and Black Swan had 4. This is great news for the absolutely brilliant drama Winter's Bone and will significantly improve its chances to making the top ten Best Picture list.

However there were some major and surprising snubs. Rabbit Hole nominated for Best Actor, Actress and Director but left out of the picture race. Blue Valentine given no love except for Michelle Williams (where's Gosling?) Julianne Moore completely shut out of Best Actress even when they expanded the category to nominate 6 actresses. Robert Duvall left out of Best Actor and costar Sissy Spacek left out of Best Supporting Actress. Diane Wiest and both Black Swan supporting Actresses (Barbara Hershey & Mila Kunis) left out of Best Supporting Actress.

All in all, I think the nominations are great! I am thrilled to see love for the supporting players of Winter's Bone, John Hawkes and Dale Dickey. Both are superb character actors and did spectacular, authentic work in the film. It was also nice to see some love for Naomi Watts and Samuel L. Jackson for Mother & Child, an extremely overlooked film I had the fortune to see at 2009's TIFF. It should have been Annette Bening's buzz worthy performance this year, however instead everyone is on The Kids Are All Right's bandwagon.

Anyways, happy for lots of Winter's Bone love and I sincerely hope that continues.

Next up National Board of Review tomorrow.

Here are your hosts!

Yesterday morning news broke of rumors that James Franco and Anne Hathaway might be on their way to hosting this year's Oscars. By afternoon, an official press release had been issued confirming that they were indeed the hosts of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards.

When I had the chance to meet Bruce Vilanch (head writer of the Oscars since 2000) at the opening night for Priscilla Queen of the Desert in Toronto, we chatted a bit about the Oscars. I tried to get certain info out of him while coming across very cool, calm and collected even though I was secretly dying with excitement on the inside. He told me that Justin Timberlake was a real option for them and since The Social Network was proving to be a huge factor in the race. I told him I thought that he and Gabby Sidibe should host. My attempt was to make him laugh with one of MY jokes. He told me that there aren't enough 3D screens in the world.

While JT or Bruce Vilanch/Gabby Sidibe haven't actually materialized, I am actually quite pleased with the unexpected combo of Franco/Hathaway. Both are young and will bring in viewers en masse. Both are gifted comedians. Both have major charm and appeal. Both have a great deal of clout in Hollywood for their ages. And both can sing (and Oscar loves an opening musical number).

I think their choice is unorthodox but really inspired. I can't wait to see how they do. And I think Franco, who will be a Best Actor nominee for 127 Hours, might be the first host to be nominated for an acting award in the same evening. He might even take the trophy.

One thing for sure is to expect plenty of arm amputation jokes care of Mr. Vilanch.

Best Supporting Actress 2010

2010 is the year of the Actress. With countless potential nominees in the leading category, we have an even more crowded Supporting race. There seem to be about 10 contenders vying for the five spots and with The Fighter and True Grit still largely unseen, it's tough to know how the race will play out.

I think the critic award winners will shape the supporting actress race more so than any other category who seem to have clear cut favorites.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

Current nominee predictions:

Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

Other possible contenders: Diane Wiest - Rabbit Hole, Barbara Hersey - Black Swan, Mila Kunis - Black Swan. Miranda Richardson - Made in Dagenham, Saorise Ronan - The Way Back, Sissy Spacek - Get Low, Marion Cotillard - Inception

As you can see there are many many many contenders and this category is anyone's guess until critic awards are presented. There are many previous veteran nominees who could factor into the race (Leo, Carter, Wiest, Hershey, Spacek, Richardson), however at this point it's anyone's guess who could and will get in. Weaver won't factor if she's not remembered by critic groups. Wiest might be left out because she's a two time winner. The Fighter and Black Swan ladies could suffer from vote splitting. Steinfeld is young and unknown and Oscar does like that, but will she deliver?

It may actually make the front runner Helena Bonham Carter, in her first non Tim Burton movie in a Queen of Heart's age. Helena Bonham Carter does lovely work in The King's Speech but I wouldn't deem it an Oscar winning performance. From what I am hearing, the other possible winner could be character actress Melissa Leo who plays loud mouthed, tough as nails boxing mom in The Fighter. Perhaps her or Amy Adams, who gets ugly (and we know Oscar likes this) as blue collar Boston boxing girlfriend.

Time will tell. Bring on the National Board of Review, LA and NY Awards please!!!!

Best Supporting Actor 2010

I must say this year's Oscar race is having a rather soporific effect on me. I can barely keep my eyes open.

Don't get me wrong, there are some first rate films in contention and some incredible performances on display but this year just doesn't have the excitement of past seasons. Where are the competitive races? Where is the drama? Where are the last minute surprises?

It seems to me that many of the most competitive films will be released before December even hits (The Social Network, 127 Hours) and most actually hit before the fall Oscar season even started (Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and Winter's Bone). I guess we are waiting for True Grit and The Fighter to hit, and based on the festival circuit we know The King's Speech is a major player. But besides those films where is our last minute surprise or wild card. Most races seem to be a two horse race at this point:

Picture - The Social Network vs. The King's Speech

Actor - Firth vs. Franco

Actress - Bening vs. Portman

Best Supporting Actor this year seems to follow the trend of ______ vs. ______.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

Current nominee predictions:

Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Ed Harris - The Way Back
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

Other possible nominees: Justin Timberlake - The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right and ....

This year is a race once again between 2 people (for the simply lack of contenders); one a previous Oscar winner, the other a Hollywood staple who recently found himself in a PR nightmare. The two top choices are Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech or Christian Bale for The Fighter.

This seems to be an extremely non competitive category this year. Geoffrey Rush is very charming in The King's Speech and delivers the best performance in the movie in my opinion, but he's a previous winner. Oscar loves a good boxing movie and I feel that Christian Bale's career and consistently good choices could finally be rewarded in this category. Based on previews, Bale seems to have the showy Oscar-baity type role.
Only possible spoiler could be Ed Harris. If the Academy likes The Way Back and wants to reward veteran director Weir in some way, it could come in the form of a win for verteran and much beloved Harris.

I also don't buy the buzz for Timberlake. However, with such slim pickings, who knows. I could see him squeezing in the Globes nominees and then after that he could build some steam. But Academy Award nominee Justin Timberlake? I am not buying what the previous sentence is selling.

However, at this point I give the edge to Bale.

Best Actress 2010

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to THE Oscar race of 2010. This is the category where competition is the fiercest. After a bland Best Actress race in 2009 (Academy Award Winner Sandra Bullock?), 2010's race seems to be the most heated race of 2010.

There are at least 10 performances that could get one of the 5 spots, with an additional 6-7 who in a less competitive year would easily make it into the category.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:
My current nominees predictions:

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Sally Hawkins - Made in Dagenham
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Other potential nominees could be: Lesley Manville - Another Year, Hilary Swank - Conviction, Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right, Halle Berry - Frankie & Alice, Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine, Diane Lane - Secretariat, Helen Mirren - The Tempest, Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs, Gwyneth Paltrow - Country Strong.
This is a hugely competitive category and many deserving potential nominees will be left out. I think it's safe to say that Portman is the only sure thing.

I know many would argue that long term Academy bridesmaid Bening is also a lock, but I don't entirely buy that. I don't really think that The Kids Are All Right is an Oscar worthy lead performance plus with so many potential great performances, I think she could be edged out. I think she was far superior in the little seen Mother and Child.

Portman is the front runner here and Bening might be in main competition because of her body of work and not necessarily the performance.

Kidman also seems to be holding solid ground with her return to excellence in Rabbit Hole. She got great notices at TIFF and she seems primed to enter back into the race.
Sally Hawkins was robbed of a nomination 2 years ago for her brilliant work in Happy Go Lucky. The Academy has the chance to make up for this omission by nominating her Made in Dagenham and I believe it would be an injustice to shun this talented lady twice in 3 years.

For the final spot, I think it's safe to say newcomer Jennifer Lawrence should get into the category. She is astonishing as the anchor of Winter's Bone. She got amazing notices in Sundance and equally great notices when the film was finally realize. She essentially defines the Hollywood IT factor right now and Oscar loves a newcomer.

The worst thing about this is I think Leslie Manville, star of Mike Leigh's Another Year may not make it into the lead category. There is talk of her dropping to Supporting and if she does the Oscar is most likely hers. But I just see her being the easiest performance to bump out of the category.

It's also too bad because Julianne Moore most likely won't make it in either. If she dropped to Supporting, she'd have a shot at the award but earlier this summer it was decided that Moore and Bening would both go lead for The Kids Are All Right. I think the next time Moore is nominated it will be for a potential winning performance. No need in creating another Peter O'Toole or Richard Burton.

I think the biggest alternate threat could be Halle Berry, if her film is released in time and gets good buzz.

I do think this award will come down to Bening and Portman. I haven't seen Black Swan yet, but I have a feeling this year the award belongs to Portman. It seems like her time. She's a previous nominee anchoring a big film that should get lots of attention in other categories. Bening's performance doesn't feel Best Actress enough to me. But yet again, neither did Sandra Bullocks'.

Best Actor 2010

It has to be said that 2010 has been the year of stronger lead female performances. There are literally 10 actresses vying for the 5 coveted actress spots. Best Actor is far less competitive. It seems to me it will be a line up consisting of almost all previous nominees, with two actors who have done consistently great work over the past decade running neck and neck for the award.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

My current nominees predictions:

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine

Other potential nominees could be: Robert Duvall - Get Low, Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network, Jim Sturgess - The Way Back, Aaron Eckhart - Rabbit Hole, Leonard DiCaprio - Inception.

I think Firth and Franco are locks at this point. Bridges (last year's winner) and Bardem look good. Gosling is the one holding the most precarious ground, but he is well liked by the Academy. I think that Duvall is the most likely to shake up my predicted top 5, but it does depend how Get Low fares in the year end critic races.

At this point the race is down between Franco and Firth, two amazing actors who have consistently done great work in the past decade. I've seen both performances. Firth is charmingly stubborn and the performance is a crowd pleaser, but Franco carries his film and is astounding throughout. My vote would go for Franco. But I think the Academy will lean towards Firth. But it's early.

The First Oscar Predictions of 2010

It's been a long while since I've blogged. This blog title will be modified in the near future because let's be honest, very little stage or tube content is posted here. It's purely screen and that means purely Oscar related.

Speaking of Oscar. We are now in the thick of things. Oscar race 2010 is here in full swing. We've worked through Cannes and TIFF and we are early November.

I must say this year's Oscar race appears to be a bit all over the place and usually this time of year we have potential candidates unrolling weekly. However this year things are different. It isn't all about the November & December releases. We have a slew of summer films that seemed primed to make the top 10 (like Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone) some TIFF festival faves that should also factor (The King's Speech, 127 Hours, Black Swan) and some late comers that have yet to be seen by anyone that seemed primed to be major players (True Grit, The Fighter)

So without further ado.

Here are my first official 2010 Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

Toy Story 3
Inception
Black Swan
Winter’s Bone
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
The Fighter
Another Year
True Grit

Best Director

Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit
David Fincher for The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
Danny Boyle for 127 Hours
Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech

Best Actor

Colin Firth for The King’s Speech
James Franco for 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges for True Grit
Javier Bardem for Biutiful
Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
Sally Hawkins for Made in Dagenham
Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville for Another Year

Best Supporting Actor

Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech
Christian Bale for The Fighter
Ed Harris for The Way Back
Vincent Cassel for Black Swan
Andrew Garfield for The Social Network

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole
Miranda Richardson for Made in Dagenham
Marion Cotillard for Inception
Barbara Hershey for Black Swan

50 Thoughts on Oscar.

Oscars 09 were something. Here are 50 thoughts on Oscar.

This is amazing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qM8YcB0MlgI&feature=player_embedded

Kathy Ireland is and was amazingly entertaining.

Red carpet moment of the year Gabby Sidibe saying “If fashion was porn, this dress would be the money shot." That person is so good.

I actually liked the opening with Best Actors and Actresses on stage. It was a nice way to honor them.

Gabby Sidibe’s posing ANTM style when they announced her name is another reason why I continue to become obsessed with that person.

I love Doogie Howser but that opening number was a lackluster way to start an equally lackluster award ceremony.

Alec and Steve were underwhelming from their first “joke.”

The timing was completely off during the opening monologue. Say someone’s name, audience claps, underwhelming joke, tepid laughter, move on.

"The biggest change this year – the best picture category being doubled. And when that was announced, all of us in Hollywood thought, 'What's five times two?' THIS IS THE OSCARS!!!!

Christoph Waltz wins and deserves every lick of that Oscar.

Tom Ford is beautiful.

Sarah Jessica Parker is not.

I don’t find Ben Stiller funny. I would have preferred Christine Taylor.

John Hughes montage was nice, but does he really deserve it?


Actually kinda liked the song nominees getting cut, although I would have died to see Marion Cotillard sing Take It All.

Miley Cyrus says “We’re both nervous, this is our first time on this stage.” Amanda Seyfried thinks Bitch speak for your damn self.

Miley forgets it’s actually her second appearance on Oscars stage after introducing a song from Enchanted in 2008.

A tribute to horror with clips from Young Frankenstein, Edward Scissorhands, Little Shop of Horrors and Twilight. Because, you know, they are horror movies.

Kristen Stewart introduces the horror tribute and this person needs to shape up or ship out. I am so tired of this person looking like she’s bored by everything. It’s unbecoming and completely disrespectful. She’s a very lucky girl for someone who is marginally talented and she should realize that or just discontinue the Hollywood game that seems to be such a drag for her.

Tina Fey and Robert Downey Jr. are perfection and I smell an Oscar hosting duty in two people’s future.

Those screenplay winners were shocking. Hurt Locker over Inglorious Basterds and Precious over Up in the Air. Who saw that coming?

I adored the montages the showed of the Supporting Actor and Actress nominees. It wasn’t just that one showy Oscar baiting scene.

After watching the montages of Best Supporting Actress, I was taken aback again by the brilliance of Mo’Nique. From where did she summon that brilliance?

Maggie Gyllenhaal actually looks moved by her own performance. That person is an asshole!

Mo’Nique is given the Oscar by Robin Williams. That’s a lot of hair on one stage.

Mo’Nique wins and thanks the Academy for recognizing the performance and not the politics. Amen Mo’, as it should be!

I think my life will be complete when Mo’Nique calls me baby!

Demi Moore has got some Benjamin Button action going on.

In Memoriam: Bea Arthur was ROBBED!

I loved that woman that tried to Kanye her former filmmaker partner. She is the real life Annie Wilkes.


Was it just me or was Carey Mulligan onstage for like a half hour announcing winners?

Liked the dance segment but did it really fit. I remember one year Debbie Allen choreographed a shirtless tap dancer to the score of Saving Private Ryan and it was BAD! America’s Best Dance Crew take on The Hurt Locker and someone pops and locks to the UP score. This is some Mia Michaels So You Think You Can Dance territory, not Oscar.

I loved that Juan José Campanella winner of Foreign film for El Secreto de Sus Ojos thanks the Academy for not considering Na’vi a foreign language.

I liked the friends of the Actor and Actress nominees celebrating them. I think it works.

Bridges wins and I yawn. Although the speech is nice and makes me think he’s not that far a cry from The Dude.

Watching the clips before Best Actress reminds me of the ridiculousness of a Sandra Bullock win in this category.

I actually forgot how mesmerizing Sidibe was and am reminded again.


"She was a student trying to earn some money to go to college. On Monday she skipped school to audition for a movie called Precious. On Tuesday they called her back to meet the director. On Wednesday, she got the part. And tonight, she is sitting at the Academy Awards in the same category as Meryl Streep.” Oprah to Gabby.

Gabby’s tears were the best moment of the show!

I am dying to see Helen Mirren’s hand spider tattoo. Who knew she was so Hell’s angels?

What the hell was Sean Penn talking about? And why can’t that man get a sense of humor?

Sandra Bullock becomes an Academy Award Winner. I yell NOOO!!!!!!!!!!!! and wake up my boyfriend who is sleeping upstairs.

Bullock snubs Streep but later makes up for it by calling her a great kisser.

I don’t agree with a Bullock win but she is so likeable and that speech was perfection with a great nod to each of her co-nominees.

Babs giving the Oscar to Bigelow was predictable but historical and important nonetheless.


The King of the World gets a slice of humble pie.

Did they really have to play Streisand and Bigelow offstage to an orchestral version of "I Am Woman, Hear Me Roar?”

Tom Hanks comes on and gives the most anticlimactic Best Picture announcement ever.

Hurt Locker wins, becomes the lowest grossing winning film in History and nary a shock all night.

The ceremony was so long Avatar now takes place in the past. Best joke of the night. So I guess save the best for last.