What we know for sure....

It's mid November and what I love about this time of year, besides brisk autumn mornings and the fall figure skating season, is how day by day the Oscar race becomes more defined. A film or performance either emerges as a frontrunner, a potential nominee, or as a no factor in the equation.

So at this point, what do we know for sure? Well as of right now it's safe to say that...

Marion Cotillard is the front runner for Best Actress and I don't think anyone can beat her. She is astonishing in the role. She truly becomes Edith Piaf.

Early on this year it was thought that the Best Actress award would be a cake walk for Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. Remember back in 1998 when a young unknown Australian actress brought the fiery Virgin Queen to life and then went on to lose the Oscar to Gwyneth Paltrow's sweet, but rather uninspiring performance in Shakespeare in Love. Well 2007 would be the perfect opportunity for redemption. But then the reviews poured in and they were abysmal. The horrendous reviews, combined with the deafening buzz CB's creating with her Dylan Doppelganger in I'm Not There in the supporting category, has left Lizzie eating dust. I am not foreseeing Elizabeth the Third.

In the Valley of Elah, Reservation Road, Lion for Lambs, Rendition, and Things We Lost in the Fire. Five films featuring a combined 10 previous Oscar winners and directed by 3 Oscar winning filmmakers have all gone belly up. Not a single one of these films will factor come Oscar time.

No Country For Old Men is a major contender. While I wasn't crazy about the film, it is at 96% critical approval at Rotten Tomatoes.com, which means that a lot of people really like it.


One thing to definitely point out is that it is only November 21st. We have only set up our first base camp on the huge trip up Oscar mountain. We still have precursors, guild awards, Golden Globes nominations and of course the Holiday box office rush to deal with. But as of now bet on an absent Cate Blanchett as Elizabeth in the winner's circle and wager on a very present No Country for Old Men in most top categories.