The Calm Before the Storm.

Over Xmas and New Years the Oscar race calms down when it comes to critic and guild awards and nominations. However, over the holidays one place where the Oscar race can heat up (or cool down) is at cinemas themselves. If you look at the holidays this year Avatar did record breaking box office, while apparently Nine barely made 7 figures.

Avatar's Best Picture victory chances are increasing, while Nine may not even make the Best Picture top ten. In fact, at this point I'd be surprised if it got any non technical nod. And fuck the Weinstein company for campaigning Cotillard as Best Actress. She is perfection in the film but that performance should not be placed in a lead category.

The last few days have seen The National Society of Film Critic Award winners, The Producer Guild top 10 nominees, and the Director's Guild nominees. Here are how I believe each affects the Oscar race:

Picture: THE HURT LOCKER

Director: Kathryn Bigelow, THE HURT LOCKER

Actor: Jeremy Renner, THE HURT LOCKER

Actress: Yolande Moreau, SERAPHINE

Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, and Paul Schneider, BRIGHT STAR

Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique, PRECIOUS

Thoughts: The Hurt Locker wins its 3rd major critic prize. It is definitely a front runner, but I still don't see The Hurt Locker winning. It's a 4 way race at this point between Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Avatar, and Up in the Air. I still see Up in the Air as the safest bet to win. The Globes will be quite telling... A major win for Jeremy Renner is very poised to knock Day Lewis out of the Best Actor category. It's very interesting that Moreau has won both the LA and NSFC and yet she appears in no one's predictions. Her studio obviously can't afford or has chosen not to campaign for her. Mo'Nique and Christoph Waltz increase their leads into the realm of unstoppable.

Producer Guild Nominations.

This year the PGA also expands to 10 nominees and here they are:

* Avatar
* District 9
* An Education
* The Hurt Locker
* Inglourious Basterds
* Invictus
* Precious: Based on the Novel "Push" by Sapphire
* Star Trek
* Up
* Up in the Air

Thoughts: Obviously this list bodes well for the Sci Fi genre. This is list does not bode well for NINE, which I would be shocked if I saw it amongst any of the major contenders on Oscar day. As Pete Hammond on Notes on a Season said "You can have some bad reviews and still get a best picture nomination. You can have not-so-great box office and do it as well, but overcoming both is a Herculean task, even for Harvey Weinstein."

Director's Guild of America Nominations:

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Lee Daniels - Precious
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

DGA noms were announced and there were no major surprises. Interesting to see that Clint Eastwood was left off the list in favor of Lee Daniels who didn't get a Globe nomination. Also interesting to note that he is the first ever African American to be nominated by the DGA. I suspect Oscar's final five will look much like this, but I have a feeling Eastwood will be on the list in favor of Daniels. A friend and I were arguing about whether Bigelow has what it takes to be the first ever female to win the Oscar for directing. I say no, he says yes. I still have a hunch that Reitman is the safer choice - 3 hit films in a row, Hollywood family pedigree, young hip director. I just don't see Bigelow taking it all the way to the stage at the Kodak. But my hunches have been very wrong before...

Next up is the Writer's Guild on Monday. Should be interesting.