Best Supporting Actor 2010

I must say this year's Oscar race is having a rather soporific effect on me. I can barely keep my eyes open.

Don't get me wrong, there are some first rate films in contention and some incredible performances on display but this year just doesn't have the excitement of past seasons. Where are the competitive races? Where is the drama? Where are the last minute surprises?

It seems to me that many of the most competitive films will be released before December even hits (The Social Network, 127 Hours) and most actually hit before the fall Oscar season even started (Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and Winter's Bone). I guess we are waiting for True Grit and The Fighter to hit, and based on the festival circuit we know The King's Speech is a major player. But besides those films where is our last minute surprise or wild card. Most races seem to be a two horse race at this point:

Picture - The Social Network vs. The King's Speech

Actor - Firth vs. Franco

Actress - Bening vs. Portman

Best Supporting Actor this year seems to follow the trend of ______ vs. ______.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

Current nominee predictions:

Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Ed Harris - The Way Back
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

Other possible nominees: Justin Timberlake - The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right and ....

This year is a race once again between 2 people (for the simply lack of contenders); one a previous Oscar winner, the other a Hollywood staple who recently found himself in a PR nightmare. The two top choices are Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech or Christian Bale for The Fighter.

This seems to be an extremely non competitive category this year. Geoffrey Rush is very charming in The King's Speech and delivers the best performance in the movie in my opinion, but he's a previous winner. Oscar loves a good boxing movie and I feel that Christian Bale's career and consistently good choices could finally be rewarded in this category. Based on previews, Bale seems to have the showy Oscar-baity type role.
Only possible spoiler could be Ed Harris. If the Academy likes The Way Back and wants to reward veteran director Weir in some way, it could come in the form of a win for verteran and much beloved Harris.

I also don't buy the buzz for Timberlake. However, with such slim pickings, who knows. I could see him squeezing in the Globes nominees and then after that he could build some steam. But Academy Award nominee Justin Timberlake? I am not buying what the previous sentence is selling.

However, at this point I give the edge to Bale.