There are at least 10 performances that could get one of the 5 spots, with an additional 6-7 who in a less competitive year would easily make it into the category.
Here's how I see the category breaking down:
My current nominees predictions:Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Sally Hawkins - Made in Dagenham
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Other potential nominees could be: Lesley Manville - Another Year, Hilary Swank - Conviction, Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right, Halle Berry - Frankie & Alice, Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine, Diane Lane - Secretariat, Helen Mirren - The Tempest, Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs, Gwyneth Paltrow - Country Strong.
This is a hugely competitive category and many deserving potential nominees will be left out. I think it's safe to say that Portman is the only sure thing. I know many would argue that long term Academy bridesmaid Bening is also a lock, but I don't entirely buy that. I don't really think that The Kids Are All Right is an Oscar worthy lead performance plus with so many potential great performances, I think she could be edged out. I think she was far superior in the little seen Mother and Child.
Portman is the front runner here and Bening might be in main competition because of her body of work and not necessarily the performance.
Kidman also seems to be holding solid ground with her return to excellence in Rabbit Hole. She got great notices at TIFF and she seems primed to enter back into the race.
Sally Hawkins was robbed of a nomination 2 years ago for her brilliant work in Happy Go Lucky. The Academy has the chance to make up for this omission by nominating her Made in Dagenham and I believe it would be an injustice to shun this talented lady twice in 3 years.
For the final spot, I think it's safe to say newcomer Jennifer Lawrence should get into the category. She is astonishing as the anchor of Winter's Bone. She got amazing notices in Sundance and equally great notices when the film was finally realize. She essentially defines the Hollywood IT factor right now and Oscar loves a newcomer.
The worst thing about this is I think Leslie Manville, star of Mike Leigh's Another Year may not make it into the lead category. There is talk of her dropping to Supporting and if she does the Oscar is most likely hers. But I just see her being the easiest performance to bump out of the category.
It's also too bad because Julianne Moore most likely won't make it in either. If she dropped to Supporting, she'd have a shot at the award but earlier this summer it was decided that Moore and Bening would both go lead for The Kids Are All Right. I think the next time Moore is nominated it will be for a potential winning performance. No need in creating another Peter O'Toole or Richard Burton.
I think the biggest alternate threat could be Halle Berry, if her film is released in time and gets good buzz.
I do think this award will come down to Bening and Portman. I haven't seen Black Swan yet, but I have a feeling this year the award belongs to Portman. It seems like her time. She's a previous nominee anchoring a big film that should get lots of attention in other categories. Bening's performance doesn't feel Best Actress enough to me. But yet again, neither did Sandra Bullocks'.
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