Here are your hosts!

Yesterday morning news broke of rumors that James Franco and Anne Hathaway might be on their way to hosting this year's Oscars. By afternoon, an official press release had been issued confirming that they were indeed the hosts of the 83rd Annual Academy Awards.

When I had the chance to meet Bruce Vilanch (head writer of the Oscars since 2000) at the opening night for Priscilla Queen of the Desert in Toronto, we chatted a bit about the Oscars. I tried to get certain info out of him while coming across very cool, calm and collected even though I was secretly dying with excitement on the inside. He told me that Justin Timberlake was a real option for them and since The Social Network was proving to be a huge factor in the race. I told him I thought that he and Gabby Sidibe should host. My attempt was to make him laugh with one of MY jokes. He told me that there aren't enough 3D screens in the world.

While JT or Bruce Vilanch/Gabby Sidibe haven't actually materialized, I am actually quite pleased with the unexpected combo of Franco/Hathaway. Both are young and will bring in viewers en masse. Both are gifted comedians. Both have major charm and appeal. Both have a great deal of clout in Hollywood for their ages. And both can sing (and Oscar loves an opening musical number).

I think their choice is unorthodox but really inspired. I can't wait to see how they do. And I think Franco, who will be a Best Actor nominee for 127 Hours, might be the first host to be nominated for an acting award in the same evening. He might even take the trophy.

One thing for sure is to expect plenty of arm amputation jokes care of Mr. Vilanch.

Best Supporting Actress 2010

2010 is the year of the Actress. With countless potential nominees in the leading category, we have an even more crowded Supporting race. There seem to be about 10 contenders vying for the five spots and with The Fighter and True Grit still largely unseen, it's tough to know how the race will play out.

I think the critic award winners will shape the supporting actress race more so than any other category who seem to have clear cut favorites.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

Current nominee predictions:

Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jackie Weaver - Animal Kingdom
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech

Other possible contenders: Diane Wiest - Rabbit Hole, Barbara Hersey - Black Swan, Mila Kunis - Black Swan. Miranda Richardson - Made in Dagenham, Saorise Ronan - The Way Back, Sissy Spacek - Get Low, Marion Cotillard - Inception

As you can see there are many many many contenders and this category is anyone's guess until critic awards are presented. There are many previous veteran nominees who could factor into the race (Leo, Carter, Wiest, Hershey, Spacek, Richardson), however at this point it's anyone's guess who could and will get in. Weaver won't factor if she's not remembered by critic groups. Wiest might be left out because she's a two time winner. The Fighter and Black Swan ladies could suffer from vote splitting. Steinfeld is young and unknown and Oscar does like that, but will she deliver?

It may actually make the front runner Helena Bonham Carter, in her first non Tim Burton movie in a Queen of Heart's age. Helena Bonham Carter does lovely work in The King's Speech but I wouldn't deem it an Oscar winning performance. From what I am hearing, the other possible winner could be character actress Melissa Leo who plays loud mouthed, tough as nails boxing mom in The Fighter. Perhaps her or Amy Adams, who gets ugly (and we know Oscar likes this) as blue collar Boston boxing girlfriend.

Time will tell. Bring on the National Board of Review, LA and NY Awards please!!!!

Best Supporting Actor 2010

I must say this year's Oscar race is having a rather soporific effect on me. I can barely keep my eyes open.

Don't get me wrong, there are some first rate films in contention and some incredible performances on display but this year just doesn't have the excitement of past seasons. Where are the competitive races? Where is the drama? Where are the last minute surprises?

It seems to me that many of the most competitive films will be released before December even hits (The Social Network, 127 Hours) and most actually hit before the fall Oscar season even started (Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and Winter's Bone). I guess we are waiting for True Grit and The Fighter to hit, and based on the festival circuit we know The King's Speech is a major player. But besides those films where is our last minute surprise or wild card. Most races seem to be a two horse race at this point:

Picture - The Social Network vs. The King's Speech

Actor - Firth vs. Franco

Actress - Bening vs. Portman

Best Supporting Actor this year seems to follow the trend of ______ vs. ______.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

Current nominee predictions:

Christian Bale - The Fighter
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Ed Harris - The Way Back
John Hawkes - Winter's Bone

Other possible nominees: Justin Timberlake - The Social Network, Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right and ....

This year is a race once again between 2 people (for the simply lack of contenders); one a previous Oscar winner, the other a Hollywood staple who recently found himself in a PR nightmare. The two top choices are Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech or Christian Bale for The Fighter.

This seems to be an extremely non competitive category this year. Geoffrey Rush is very charming in The King's Speech and delivers the best performance in the movie in my opinion, but he's a previous winner. Oscar loves a good boxing movie and I feel that Christian Bale's career and consistently good choices could finally be rewarded in this category. Based on previews, Bale seems to have the showy Oscar-baity type role.
Only possible spoiler could be Ed Harris. If the Academy likes The Way Back and wants to reward veteran director Weir in some way, it could come in the form of a win for verteran and much beloved Harris.

I also don't buy the buzz for Timberlake. However, with such slim pickings, who knows. I could see him squeezing in the Globes nominees and then after that he could build some steam. But Academy Award nominee Justin Timberlake? I am not buying what the previous sentence is selling.

However, at this point I give the edge to Bale.

Best Actress 2010

Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to THE Oscar race of 2010. This is the category where competition is the fiercest. After a bland Best Actress race in 2009 (Academy Award Winner Sandra Bullock?), 2010's race seems to be the most heated race of 2010.

There are at least 10 performances that could get one of the 5 spots, with an additional 6-7 who in a less competitive year would easily make it into the category.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:
My current nominees predictions:

Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Sally Hawkins - Made in Dagenham
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman - Black Swan

Other potential nominees could be: Lesley Manville - Another Year, Hilary Swank - Conviction, Julianne Moore - The Kids Are All Right, Halle Berry - Frankie & Alice, Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine, Diane Lane - Secretariat, Helen Mirren - The Tempest, Anne Hathaway - Love and Other Drugs, Gwyneth Paltrow - Country Strong.
This is a hugely competitive category and many deserving potential nominees will be left out. I think it's safe to say that Portman is the only sure thing.

I know many would argue that long term Academy bridesmaid Bening is also a lock, but I don't entirely buy that. I don't really think that The Kids Are All Right is an Oscar worthy lead performance plus with so many potential great performances, I think she could be edged out. I think she was far superior in the little seen Mother and Child.

Portman is the front runner here and Bening might be in main competition because of her body of work and not necessarily the performance.

Kidman also seems to be holding solid ground with her return to excellence in Rabbit Hole. She got great notices at TIFF and she seems primed to enter back into the race.
Sally Hawkins was robbed of a nomination 2 years ago for her brilliant work in Happy Go Lucky. The Academy has the chance to make up for this omission by nominating her Made in Dagenham and I believe it would be an injustice to shun this talented lady twice in 3 years.

For the final spot, I think it's safe to say newcomer Jennifer Lawrence should get into the category. She is astonishing as the anchor of Winter's Bone. She got amazing notices in Sundance and equally great notices when the film was finally realize. She essentially defines the Hollywood IT factor right now and Oscar loves a newcomer.

The worst thing about this is I think Leslie Manville, star of Mike Leigh's Another Year may not make it into the lead category. There is talk of her dropping to Supporting and if she does the Oscar is most likely hers. But I just see her being the easiest performance to bump out of the category.

It's also too bad because Julianne Moore most likely won't make it in either. If she dropped to Supporting, she'd have a shot at the award but earlier this summer it was decided that Moore and Bening would both go lead for The Kids Are All Right. I think the next time Moore is nominated it will be for a potential winning performance. No need in creating another Peter O'Toole or Richard Burton.

I think the biggest alternate threat could be Halle Berry, if her film is released in time and gets good buzz.

I do think this award will come down to Bening and Portman. I haven't seen Black Swan yet, but I have a feeling this year the award belongs to Portman. It seems like her time. She's a previous nominee anchoring a big film that should get lots of attention in other categories. Bening's performance doesn't feel Best Actress enough to me. But yet again, neither did Sandra Bullocks'.

Best Actor 2010

It has to be said that 2010 has been the year of stronger lead female performances. There are literally 10 actresses vying for the 5 coveted actress spots. Best Actor is far less competitive. It seems to me it will be a line up consisting of almost all previous nominees, with two actors who have done consistently great work over the past decade running neck and neck for the award.

Here's how I see the category breaking down:

My current nominees predictions:

Javier Bardem - Biutiful
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
James Franco - 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling - Blue Valentine

Other potential nominees could be: Robert Duvall - Get Low, Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network, Jim Sturgess - The Way Back, Aaron Eckhart - Rabbit Hole, Leonard DiCaprio - Inception.

I think Firth and Franco are locks at this point. Bridges (last year's winner) and Bardem look good. Gosling is the one holding the most precarious ground, but he is well liked by the Academy. I think that Duvall is the most likely to shake up my predicted top 5, but it does depend how Get Low fares in the year end critic races.

At this point the race is down between Franco and Firth, two amazing actors who have consistently done great work in the past decade. I've seen both performances. Firth is charmingly stubborn and the performance is a crowd pleaser, but Franco carries his film and is astounding throughout. My vote would go for Franco. But I think the Academy will lean towards Firth. But it's early.

The First Oscar Predictions of 2010

It's been a long while since I've blogged. This blog title will be modified in the near future because let's be honest, very little stage or tube content is posted here. It's purely screen and that means purely Oscar related.

Speaking of Oscar. We are now in the thick of things. Oscar race 2010 is here in full swing. We've worked through Cannes and TIFF and we are early November.

I must say this year's Oscar race appears to be a bit all over the place and usually this time of year we have potential candidates unrolling weekly. However this year things are different. It isn't all about the November & December releases. We have a slew of summer films that seemed primed to make the top 10 (like Toy Story 3, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone) some TIFF festival faves that should also factor (The King's Speech, 127 Hours, Black Swan) and some late comers that have yet to be seen by anyone that seemed primed to be major players (True Grit, The Fighter)

So without further ado.

Here are my first official 2010 Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

Toy Story 3
Inception
Black Swan
Winter’s Bone
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
127 Hours
The Fighter
Another Year
True Grit

Best Director

Joel & Ethan Coen for True Grit
David Fincher for The Social Network
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan
Danny Boyle for 127 Hours
Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech

Best Actor

Colin Firth for The King’s Speech
James Franco for 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges for True Grit
Javier Bardem for Biutiful
Ryan Gosling for Blue Valentine

Best Actress

Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole
Sally Hawkins for Made in Dagenham
Natalie Portman for Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence for Winter’s Bone
Lesley Manville for Another Year

Best Supporting Actor

Geoffrey Rush for The King’s Speech
Christian Bale for The Fighter
Ed Harris for The Way Back
Vincent Cassel for Black Swan
Andrew Garfield for The Social Network

Best Supporting Actress

Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit
Dianne Wiest for Rabbit Hole
Miranda Richardson for Made in Dagenham
Marion Cotillard for Inception
Barbara Hershey for Black Swan