These are 95% my final predictions. I do reserve the right to have an 11th hour change if I am second guessing myself. But as of right now, and if I was a betting man, these picks are what I would go for.
Best Picture- No Country for Old Men
The Coens brothers ode to testerone will defeat the little indie movie that did (AKA Juno) and another testoterone movie about oil. It was the most critically acclaimed movie of the year and having been rewarded by PGA, SAG, WGA certainly puts in heavily in the lead.
Best Director - Coen Brothers
They are so well respected in Hollywood and Globe winner Schnabel won't win because his film is absent from the picture list.
Best Actor - Daniel Day Lewis
There are certainties in life; the world is round, the sky is blue and Daniel Day Lewis is winning his second Oscar next weekend.
Best Actress - Julie Christie
In October I thought this race was over. I didn't think it was possible for another performance to out shine Marion Cotillard's brilliant and awe-inspiring turn as Edith Piaf. However, then mostly every precusor critic award went to Julie Christie. Christie & Cotillard won The Globes, then Christie won SAG and I pretty much gave up hope for the Best performance I've seen in a decade be rewarded. Then Cotillard beat Christie at the BAFTAs, (re: Christie's homeland's version of Oscar). Suddenly many people think Cotillard could pull an Adrien Brody and sneak in and steal the award from critical buzz favorite Christie and popular vote favorite Ellen Page. I am still sticking with Christie. She's a vet and I'm sure she hit a cord in many of the older Academy members. Ellen Page could shock, but it's not likely. Juno's Oscar will be given to the stripper not the Halifax one woman show. I still pray for Cotillard. Aren't the Oscar about rewarding the best? (I write that statement that with the utmost irony)
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Hal Holbrook has a shot. But to be quite honest his chances of winning this category are about as good as mine. Javier takes this award easily.
Best Supporting Actress - Ruby Dee
This category is exceedingly fascinating. Blanchett was the early leader, then Amy Ryan won all the critic awards, then Blanchett regained the lead by winning the Globe, then Ruby Dee shocked all and won the SAG and then Tilda Swinton picked up the BAFTA. The only contender in this race who really doesn't stand a chance is 13 year old Saoirse Ronan. But trust me, her chance will arrive in two years when she stars as Susie Salmon in Peter Jackson's take on The Lovely Bones. I don't think Swinton is much of a threat here either. People believe she is for the reason that Michael Clayton can't go home empty handed. I don't think Blanchett will take it either. I think voters know she'll be back many more times and I think they would rather honor with a second Oscar for Best Actress and not Supporting. That leaves the knock out and the woman born in 1924. At this moment, I am calling the fact that age will defeat talent in this race. I am not counting Amy Ryan out yet, but the Academy does love a veteran.
Best Original Screenplay - Diablo Cody
Hiper than hip jargon, snappy dialogue, and an outspoken edgy pregant teen who utters trailer quotable sentenses five times a sceenplay page will win. I love the Cinderella story, but I am not in love with the script.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Coen Brothers
Beautifully paced and artfully constructed, The Coen brothers will be the big stars of Oscar Sunday. If only Polley would win, then I would find myself thanked at the Oscars. Not gonna happen, but I can dream can't I.
These are my opinions nine days out. They may or may not change. Stay tuned.
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