Dee, 'Droid, Dylan and Deadbeat.

The Best Supporting Actress category has suddenly gotten very very very exciting with a possibility of four scenarios playing out.

In looking at the five past winners of this category we can draw a few things:

06 Jennifer Hudson
05 Rachel Weisz
04 Cate Blanchett
03 Renee Zelleweger
02 Catherine Zeta Jones

Hduson was the breakthrough star and arguably the best thing about her film. Weisz and Zeta Jones (and Hudson as well) were lead performances who were campaigned for Supporting. Blanchett was given an Oscar for a great performance and for being snubbed for her career defining performance in Elizabeth. While Zellweger was given the award for a knock out performance but also for being one of Hollywood's under 40 A listers without the trailer title card Academy Award Winner.

So where do our five ladies line up with these five or previous winners of this category.
Early favorite Amy Ryan wins the breakout performance award in the vein of Jennifer Hudson, Mira Sorvino, Juliette Binoche. She won nearly every critics award and gave the best performance in my opinion. But her characters is pretty despicable and doesn't elicit tremendous sympathy from viewers. The character of Helene might really turn voters off.
Voters could go for perenial favorite Blanchett. She was pretty darn impressive as Bob Dylan's alter ego and we have witnessed voters awarded another gender bending turn in this category (Linda Hunt in 1983). There was talk of a last minute category switch to lead actress for Blanchett (a maneuver that helped Zeta Jones and Weisz) but then she would have split the vote with her own subsequently nominated performance in Elizabeth. However I don't think Blanchett will win her second award in three years (despite being double nommed). Why? Well because voters know that Blanchett will eventually win again. She'll be back many times as a nominee to come and it is my belief that they will next want to reward her in the lead category. There is much more prestige in a leading actress award win then two Supporting wins.
Ruby "1924" Dee has age in her corner of this celebrity death match. Much like previous winners Judi Dench, Peggy Ashcroft, and Maureen Stapleton, Ruby Dee is a beloved Hollywood icon. She has decades of Hollywood cred and is very beloved in the industry. Her recent SAG win is clear evidence of this. However, she is in the film for less than five minutes (it worked for Dench), but remember only four African American women have won Oscars and I don't think it is likely in back to back years.
Then there's android of my eye, Tilda Swinton. Swinton was absolutely fierce as villanous Karen Crowder in Michael Clayton. A month or so Swinton was thought to be a distant also ran in the race, however with her recent BAFTA combined with the overall Oscar love for Michael Clayton may have bumped her up to odds on favorite. The Oscars love villains (think Hannibal Lector or Claus Von Bulow) but they aren't crazy for female villain victors. However, Swinton has the esteemed actress without Academy Award Winner attached to her name going for her like recent victors Blanchett and Zellweger.
Now to the offical also ran, that is, the lovely 13 year old Saoirse Ronan. She could pull off one of the greatest shocks of Oscar history, but unlike previous teen winners Anna Paquin or Patti Duke, the competition this year is too tough. Do look for this lady to be a major contender in a few years for The Lovely Bones. Mark my words.

Who wins? The breakout performance, the double nommed thoroughbred, the veteran or the villainous character actress?

In my official predictions I leaned toward the vet, but now I am thinking Michael Clayton has got to get some love and Tilda Swinton is the best chance at demonstrating their affection.