The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actress

Early in the race it looked like Cate Blanchett would win in a cake walk with her truly mesmerizing take on Bob Dylan. It was a performance that could have gone wrong in so many ways, but it ended up being the most critically acclaimed aspect of the fascinating film experiment that was I'm Not There. By mid November most people were calling this race a done deal. That was until the critic awards went radio ga ga over Amy Ryan's unfit mother of the year in Gone Baby Gone. Britney has nothing on Ryan's Helene.

Amy Ryan has subsequently pulled ahead in this race and looks primed for a victory. I thought Blanchett and Ryan were both superb. But my vote in this category might lean toward Tilda Swinton who was marvelous as the WASPy corporate ice queen in Michael Clayton. Her character contained ten times the coldness that her Narnia White Witch counterpart ever dreamed of.

Of course Ryan, Blanchett, and Swinton are locks, but the other two spots are completely up in the air. Right now it's neck and neck between Ruby Dee for her glamorized cameo in American Gangester and Catherine Keener's hippie earth mother in Into The Wild. It's interesting to see that Keener can essentially do nothing in a film and still warrant attention. She is just that good. Case in point, see Capote. Saorise Ronan might slip in, but I wouldn't bet on it because Atonement seems to be (spoiler alert)...dead in a tube station. I would say that Ruby Dee has the fourth slot.

I am still sticking to my guns that Jennifer Garner will be nominated for Juno. She will get caught up in the Juno tidal wave. Not to mention she is really wonderfully affecting and heartbreaking as the tightly wound Vanessa. The scene where she is sitting at her spotless dining room table nursing a glass of red wine in total agony brings tears to my eyes at the thought of it.

Now if Garner does make it into the category the question is who does hubby Affleck root for, his wife or his front runner actress?