D'Juno who's going to win?

Sometimes I have a Oscar hunch. Sometimes I am way off, but sometimes I hit the nail on the head. This year my early hunch is that Ellen Page will walk away with the Oscar. She will become the youngest Best Actress winner ever, besting Marlee Martlin's win by more than a year. A twenty year old Best Actress winner might be considered a bit of a stretch. But here's why I have hunch.

The buzz for Juno is huge right now. When I was at the movie theatre last night both showings were sold out. Everyone is calling Juno, this year's Little Miss Sunshine. But I strongly disagree with this statement. I think that Juno has twice the screenplay and ten times the heart that Little Miss Sunshine had. Little Miss Sunshine also didn't have a monumental breakout performance like Juno does. Sure Abi Breslin and Alan Arkin were great. However, we all knew that Little Miss Sunshine was an ensemble effort. Hell, if there was a star in Little Miss Sunshine it was that damned yellow van. When people come out of Juno they do not forget Ellen Page. There is a difference between these two movies in that huge performance.

Back to my hunch, I also think people like Juno more than Little Miss Sunshine. I think that they'll want to reward it come Oscar time. Sure, Diablo Cody will win for Original Screenplay (50% for her Screenplay and 50% for her stripperella story). But if they really want to reward it, why not an Ellen Page win while there at it.

If voters can't decide between Julie Christie or Marion Cotillard. They will most likely go with Page. There are tons of reasons how Christie and Cotillard would turn voters away from the top prize. If you were a voter would you want to sit through a screener of a depressing Alzheimer's movie or a two hour+ Edith Piaf biopic or would you want a quirky 90 minute comedy that's all the buzz with the kids? Also voters could be swayed by the fact that Julie Christie has an Oscar and that Marion Cotillard is in a foreign language film. The last (and only) win for Best Actress in a Foreign Language film was Sophia Loren in 1961!

Buzz plays a huge part in the Oscar race. Often times people vote for who they think they should vote for, not necessarily who has delivered the best performance. My hunch and the buzz this moment all point to Page. Now we'll see if I am way off or if I hit the nail on the head.