The Oscar SAGa continues.

The SAG awards were presented last night. Four expected wins and one major surprise is what SAG presented us with. As well as a seriously discolored scalped Mickey Rooney. How is Heath Ledger dead and Mickey Rooney is still kicking? The mysteries of Hollywood...

I didn't do a predictions blog but I would have predicted the following for wins:

Best Ensemble: No Country for Old Men
Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress: Julie Christie (sigh)
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan

The huge surprise of last night was Ruby Dee winning Best Supporting Actress. This win worries me because I fear that Oscar voters will go for the 83 year old because of who she is and not because of the performance. In my opinion we've had too many Supporting Acting Oscars used for lifetime achievement awards lately (I am talking to you Alan Arkin and James Coburn). I would have thought SAG voter would go for longtime character actress Amy Ryan. She's an actor's actor having toiled in theatres and film bit parts for years. But again they gave a five minute performance the award over Ryan and Blanchett. Hopefully this trend, like the film Dreamgirls suggests, exists for one night only.

Daniel Day Lewis is unbeatable. His speech will force even those not in his camp to vote for him.

Julie Christie is Oscar bound as well. I was hoping SAG voters would go for the transformative Marion Cotillard and give her a much needed leg up in the race. I would have also loved an Ellen Page win. I will have to just deal with the fact that Marion will be robbed.

Javier Bardem is unstoppable.

No Country for Old Men will most definately win Best Picture unless voters are too charmed by Juno or too blown away by Day Lewis and There Will Be Blood.

A plea to Oscar voters Ruby Dee for the loss.

The Biggest Loser!

So who was Tuesday's biggest loser?

The winner is Into the Wild. Into the Wild was thought to be a possible nominee in Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Adapted Screenplay, and several Best Original Songs composed by Eddie Vedder. However, the film came up aces in each category. This really is too bad because Into the Wild was thrilling and one of the best films of the year (minus its unnecessary chaptering framing device).

Angelina Jolie was thought to be a shoe in for her role as Marianne Pearl in A Mighty Heart. After all it was the first time she had acted since the 90's! However Oscar voters went with two of their consumate favorites in Blanchett and Linney.

Hairspray was one of my guiltiest pleasures of the year. But on Tuesday morning there was nary a nomination for Tracy and company. I found this surprising especially since the costumes and art direction were superb.

Speaking of musicals, Sweeney Todd got completely lost in the shuffle this year. Too bad. I love the macabre musical. While I found Tim Burton's direction a little self serving, nothing beats the gorgeous music and Sondheim's endlessly clever lyrics.

And finally Hollywood was a big loser on Tuesday with the death of Heath Ledger. I keep thinking about what could have been. So sad!

The New Brando?

Yesterday Hollywood was a buzz with Oscar nomination fever only to have their celebration abrutly end when at 3:30pm news broke that Heath Ledger had been found dead in his Manhattan apartment.

Heath Ledger is a devastating loss for the Hollywood community. River Phoenix and James Dean comparisons immediately came to mind. He was one of the most interesting younger actors working, constantly picking challenging and layered roles. He was even called the new Brando. His role as conflicted cowboy Ennis Del Mar in Brokeback Mountain was a virtuoso performance and in my opinion the film's strongest aspect. We'll get to see him this summer in The Dark Knight as the Joker. But it is such a shame that he won't be gracing the silver screen in the many years to come. Such a loss!

Nom Reactions!

Oscar nomination morning is my Christmas morning. So what did I find under Oscar's tree this year. What presents sucked? What presents were great? And what presents did I not expect?

Here are the nominees:

BEST PICTURE
"Atonement"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Reactions: I was expecting The Diving Bell and the Butterfly and hoping for Sweeney Todd, but overall no major surprises here.


BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Reactions: I am wiping the tears from my wannabe Disney Princess eyes for Amy Adams. The performance was too lightweight. Really surprised to see both Blanchett and Linney over Angie Jo Jo. I expected one or the other, but not both. Linney and Blanchett are obviously loved by the Academy, so I'll know never to count either out again.

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp, "Sweeney Todd"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Tommy Lee Jones, "In the Valley of Elah"

Reactions: WOW for Tommy Lee Jones who I would have expected in the Supporting category instead of lead. I guess Supporting simply couldn't make room for him. Although TLJ did edge out Emile Hirsch and Ryan Gosling. I sense some ageism there. Too bad for Emile because it truly was a mesmerizing leading performance. He held the screen by himself for repeated long periods of time and was fascinating each and every time. No small feat.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan, "Atonement"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Reactions: No major surprise here. I was hoping for Jennifer Garner but she might have split votes with costar Alison Janney. Ruby Dee is the kind uninspiring nomination that makes my blood boil. She's old and a legend, but what impact did she make in her 5 minute American Gangster performance?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into The Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country For Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Reactions: I went 5 for 5 in my predictions. Too bad for Edna Turnblad. She's never get hobnob and drink rum and cokes with the hoipolloi.

BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Reactions: I did not expect Jason Reitman. I love director because you can always guarantee that the category will not line up 5 for 5 with the Best Picture noms. Juno could really challenge for a Best Picture win now that Reitman is in as well.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Brad Bird, Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird, "Ratatouille"
Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"

Reactions: It's nice to see three women nominated. Diablo Cody will win but I see Tony Gilroy as a serious dark horse threat.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Christopher Hampton, "Atonement"
Ronald Harwood, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Sarah Polley, "Away From Her"

Reactions: Thrilled to see Sarah Polley as I really did not expect it. Now fingers crossed for a win, although she's up against three former winners. But anything can happen and I would just love to be thanked.

PLEASE!!!!!!!!

NOMINATE AMY ADAMS FOR BEST ACTRESS...

That's my last minute plea to the Academy. She's perfection!

Nominations Anyone?

Tomorrow is one of my favorite days of the year. I have watched the Oscar nominations live every year since 1995. My mom used to let me cut classes in elementary and junior high school and the only blip on my perfect attendance in high school was nomination morning.

I love nomination morning because there are always huge surprises. There are performances you would have considered a nomination lock that are left out and some you never think would be amongst the final 5. Last year's major shock was the omission of Dreamgirls from Best Picture. The biggest surprise I can remember in my 14 nomination mornings would have to be Keisha Castle Hughes completely shocking, but insanely deserving, nomination.

This year it's safe to say there are front runners in all acting categories, but picture and director are all over the place.

Could we see any shockers? I hope so. I always rocks the boat and makes for fun.

Here are my official predictions for the 2007 Academy Awards.

Best Picture:

The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Atonement
Juno
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men

Next in: Michael Clayton

Best Director

The Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild

Next in: Joe Wright, Atonement

Best Actor

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Next in: Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

Next in: Laura Linney, The Savages

To me this is the toughest call. I want to see Amy Adams in this category, but I am so torn between Blanchett and Linney. But Blanchett has had GG, SAG and BAFTA attention and Linney is 0-3

Best Supporting Actor

Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James...
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton

Next in: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Jennifer Garner, Juno
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Saorise Ronan, Atonement
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Next In: Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Best Original Screenplay

Michael Clayton
Juno
The Savages
Lars and the Real Girl
Eastern Promises

Next In: Ratatouille

Best Adapeted Screenplay

No Country for Old Men
Atonement
There Will Be Blood
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild

Next In: Charlie Wilson's War

I can't wait for tomorrow. Here's to some surprises and here's to the most deserving being nominated. On a personal note, here's to Sarah Polley's adapted screenplay nod. She told me if she won, she'd thank me. I'm not holding my breath for a nom or a win.

The 5th Wheel...

I am not talking about the early 00's syndicated dating show which rivaled Elimidate as the new century's most awkward way to date people on TV. I am talking about the 5th wheel in this year's Oscar race. As I see it, there are four locks in each of the main categories. The fifth spot in each category is really up in the air. A bevy of Oscar hopefuls are fighting it out for the last spot. Here are my picks at who will be the coveted fifth wheel.


Best Picture:

No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Juno
Michael Clayton

5th Wheel Will Be: Atonement. It won the Golden Globe and dominated the BAFTAs. It is the kind of movie Oscar loves. It's romantic, sweeping, lush and about war. It features three up and coming Hollywood A listers and an IT boy director. The problemis, it's not that good. But it will make it in just barely over Sweeney Todd.5th Wheel Should Be: Hairspray. I know, I know. Sweeney Todd really deserves the musical nomination and Hairspray didn't have the pedigree of some other serious films this year. But was any movie more fun?
Best Actor:

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

5th Wheel Will Be: Emile Hirsch for Into the Wild. A truly mesmerizing leading performance.5th Wheel Should (and very well Could) Be: Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl. Gosling was deeply affecting as the heart wounded Lars. The scene in which his Dr. tries to get to the bottom of his intimacy issues is heartbreaking.

Best Actress:

Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Julie Christie, Away from Her

5th Wheel Will Be: This could go so many different way. It could be Laura Linney for The Savages or Helena Bonham Carter for Sweeny Todd. I do not understand how Keira Underbightley could have any buzz. However, I am starting to believe that Cate Blanchett's Queen Elizbeth will get the last spot. After all, she has been on every nom list so far. 5th Wheel Should Be: AMY ADAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I want to put her in my predictions, but my gut tells me it's not going to happen. How can Oscar commit such a crime. Adams' performance is one of the finest nuanced and gracefully comedic performances I've ever seen. She's a Disney Princess version of Annie Hall.

Best Supporting Actor:

Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild

5th Wheel Will Be: Philip Seymour Hoffman will edge out Tommy Lee Jones and John Travolta for the last spot.5th Wheel Should Be: Robert Downey Jr. in Zodiac. RDJr. was the best thing about Zodiac. He was equally charismatic, charming and fascinating.

Best Supporting Actress:

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

5th Wheel Will Be: Saoirse Ronan in Atonement because there really is a total lack of contenders in this category.5th Wheel Should Be: Jennifer Garner in Juno. Jennifer Garner was so touching and lovely as tightly wound Vanessa. I seriously don't understand the lack of buzz on this one.

Best Director:

Coen Bros, No Country for Old Men
PT Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

5th Wheel will Be: This category is tough. I'd say the 5th spot is between Joe Wright and Tim Burton. I think it will go to Joe Wright for that 5 minute shot on the beach.5th Wheel Should Be: The Academy should really consider Brad Bird who's work on Ratatouille was fantastic. When will the academy figure out that helming an animated feature takes just as much touch and finesse as any War sequence or finely crafted dramatic sequence.

Offical predictions on the weekend.

American Idle?

I've blogged about the Oscars for what seems like the at least 90% of these blogs and have really neglected the stage and tube portion of this blog's title. More Oscar talk tomorrow but until then...

Tonight the 7th season of American Idol begins and producers have promised a stronger competition this year with more focus on creating unique artists as opposed to watered down semi pop stars that might have a single radio play song if they are lucky.

The past two seasons have been less than stellar. Has American Idol become Idle? It seems like it needs major kick in the pants to get back to its first three seasons glory (Season 3 still remains my favorite of all time). The '06 and '07 AI classes offered only a few memorable contestants and it is time that Idol turns out an Amy Winehouse or Mika instead of a Haley Scarnato or Anthony Fedorov. Why couldn't they have gone for Rachel Zevita last year. She was amazing.

Today I will list in my opinion the top five idol contestants of idol all time and tomorrow I will list the top five train wrecks season 1-6.

TOP FIVE

5. Fantasia - This woman was incredible. She is my favorite contestant of all time and for those who didn't "get" her, I seriously question their taste in all things having to do with hearing. She has had substantial success on the R & B circuit and made perhaps the most astonishing stage debut last year that Broadway has ever seen.

4. Chris Daughtry - After getting snubbed on Idol (finished 4th in 06) Daughtry turned down Live to be their lead singer and launched a massively huge solo career. His record was one of the top selling records of the past year. He also won a boatload of AMAs and a ton of Grammy noms. He is without a doubt the most successful male Idol ever.

3. Kelly Clarkson - The original winner has become one of the planet's biggest pop stars. She gave all Idol winners and non winners their legitimate artist cred. Breakaway was one of the best pop albums of the new century and Since You Been Gone is just so damned catchy. 2007 was a bit of a mid career hiccup for her, attempting to be less pop and enraging her music Pop (Clive Davis) in the process. But she'll come back...

2. Jennifer Hudson - Talk about the biggest story to ever come out of Idol. This woman finished 7th (7TH!!!!!) in American Idol season 3 and three years later she won an Oscar. Sure we haven't seen what Jennifer Hudson can do musically yet, but she already has so much damned clout it doesn't matter. She is in the upper echelons of the Hollywood's elite and has chosen some great post Oscar follow up projects. She's our modern day Aretha.

1. Carrie Underwood - Ms. Underwood is about as A list as you can get in the music industry. So far she has had essentially a perfect career and everything has come up Carrie. Sure it helped that entered into the country music industry, which is seemingly its own culture. But Carrie has massive cross over appeal. Before He Cheats was a delicious guilty pleasure that was played more often on non country radio. She has sold huge amount of albums and has won the most prestigious Grammy of any AI alumnus, Best New Artist. Carrie is now as arguably as big as the show that spawned her.

Hopefully this year AI will discover an artist that will someday be on the above list. Here's hoping. It all begins tonight!

The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor this year is a very strong category. Its front runner may be the performance of the year. That performance of course is of course Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh, one of film's greatest villains ever rivaling even Darth Vaider and Hannibal Lector.

Javier Bardem has been the front runner from early on and he is, like his character, virtually unstoppable when it comes to winning this race.

Is it possible that someone could give him a run for the prize? Well it's always possible, but certainly not probable.

Three other strong contenders should be:

Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck in the Assassination of Jesse James...

The final spot is a dogfight between two previous Oscar winners who had multiple award worthy performances in '07.

Tommy Lee Jones was critically acclaimed for his grieving father in In the Valley of Elah, but that film's box office receipts never gave him a chance in the Actor category. Therefore he may be rewarded in the Supporting category for both In the Valley and his seen it all police sheriff in No Country for Old Men.

Meanwhile Philip Seymour Hoffman has had an incredible year, truly proving that he is Hollywood's greatest character actor. Hoffman was sensational in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. He charmed critics in The Savages. However, he really blew them out of the water in Charlie Wilson's War.

I believe that PSH will get the final spot over Tommy Lee. But it won't really matter because Javier Bardem can't be caught both in his film and in this race.

PGA are Lance Bass with Globe Winners

The producer's guild nominated their top five of the year yesterday and absent on their list were both Globes Best Picture champs.

Atonement and Sweeney Todd are on precariously thin ice in the Oscar race. Right now I suspect that only one will be nominated for Best Pic and my vote changes each as to which one it will be.



PGA noms went like this:

The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Juno
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton

Come Oscar time I suspect that the DB & B will be left out of the top five in favor of either Globe winner. Right now I say... Atonement. Nominations are a week from today!

No frontrunner for Old Oscar

The Golden Globes gave their annual awards out last night.This year's Globes featured a tremendously tacky ceremony on NBC starring celebrity leeches or celebrileeches Nancy O'Dell and Billy Bush announcing the winners. I am in solidarity with the writers, but if I have to sit through another one of these type of things I may change my tune. The horrendous banter between bottom of the barrel Bush and poor woman Mary Hart O'Dell made me long for a good ole fashioned Globe ceremony. I could have even dealt with three hours of staring at Rumer Willis.

I was tremendously off on my predictions last night because I chose performances and films that seemed to be unbeatable. However, there were several major surprises. Cate Blanchett beating Amy Ryan for one. Julian Shnabel picking up the award for Best Director for The Diving Bell over the Coens. The Coens winning Best Screenplay over Ms. Cody. Sweeney Todd winning Best Picture over Ms. Cody's creation. And Juno herself losing to Edith Piaf. I was also surprised to see Atonement win because I don't believe that people love it. I didn't.What last night cemented is that there is no front runner for Best Picture or Director. It's even possible that both Best Pictures at the Globes (Sweeney Todd and Atonement) will be left out of that category for Oscar. Possible yes, probable no! It would be something if both were left off the shortlist, creating an essential predicting nightmare. I really hope voters go for Sweeney Todd.

I still think No Country for Old Men and The Coen Brothers will win for Best Picture and Best Director. Both acting categories are now locked and loaded meaning that Day Lewis and Bardem can write their speeches now.

The Actress categories just got a lot more interesting. Early on it looked like a clear victory for Cate Blanchett, then the critics hailed Amy Ryan as their queen and she took the lead. Now Blanchett seems to have the edge. But my gut tells me that Ryan will win.

The Actress race is still a close battle between the vet, the newcomer, and the 20 year old. Cotillard needed that Globe win or she would have had no chance for the Oscar. Julie Christie is still the front runner but Cotillard is trailing very close. I hope Oscar voters come to their senses and see the need to reward her as much as Day Lewis and Bardem. And should either of the Cs lose steam Ellen Page will deservedly claim the prize. Something tells me that I don't think the Juno buzz has quite reached its due date yet.

Hollywood Foreign Depressed Association!

As you may have heard the Golden Globes are not happening tonight due to this damned writer's strike. This writer' strike is starting to really piss me off. A mere three episodes of Saturday Night Live this season, the film version of Nine getting postponed and of course abridge seasons of 30 Rock and Lost.

However, like the ladies on the View I do stand in solidarity with the writers. I think they deserve everything they are fighting for. But when it comes to my award shows I like them to be timely and to actually happen.

I am really looking forward to tonight's press conference but I will miss the speeches, dresses, and of course the fugliest human ever Miss Golden 2008 Rumer Willis.

Prediction time

Best Picture Drama - No Country for Old Men
Best Picture Comedy/Musical - Juno
Best Actor Drama - Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actor Comedy/Musical - Johnny Depp
Best Actress Drama - Julie Christie
Best Actress Comedy/Musical - sooooooooooooo tough my heart says Cotillard, but my head says Ellen Page
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan
Animated Film - Ratatouille
Foreign Film - The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Director -Coen Brothers
Screenplay - Diablo Cody
Original Score - Dario Marinelli for Atonement
Original Song - Falling Slowly for Once

and TV

Best Drama Series - Damages
Best Comedy Series - 30 Rock
Best Drama Actor - Michael C. Hall
Best Comedy Actor - Ricky Gervais
Best Drama Actress - Glenn Close
Best Comedy Actress - Tina Fey
Best Miniseries or Movie - Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee
Best Actor M/M - Jim Broadbent
Best Actress M/M - Bryce Dallas Howard
Best Supporting Actor - Jeremy Piven
Best Supporting Actress - Kathryn Heigl

She tries really hard, actually!

It is a great time to be Diablo Cody. In case you haven't heard the amazing story behind 2007 Hollywood's It Girl, here goes. Cody was a stripper in Minnesota. She started a blog entitled the pussy ranch. Her blog was widely read and she parlayed in into a book deal about her stripping exploits. That book led a producer to encourage her to write a screenplay. That screenplay turned out to be Juno, the hilarious and touching story of a 16 year old pregnant teen. This fall the little pregnancy movie that could, written by the stripper has had Tinsel Town all a buzz!

However, not everyone has been on the Hamburger phone train this fall. Most people are probably jealous of her rags to riches story. But come on people, we shouldn't be so hard on her because she gives us bloggers and Hollywood wannabes hope.

If there is one aspect of Juno that's been criticized its been it's hipper than hip google-era dialogue. Many people aren't buying the legitimacy of the language coming from a 16 year old. Looking over the quotes page on IMDB and upon viewing the film twice, I am still not buying lines like "That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet" and "Hi, I'm calling to procure a hasty abortion..." Cody's script attempts to have such a distinct voice that it fails to ever convince me that many of the characters exist in any semblance of the real world. In the first two scenes of the film it seems as though she is attempting to one up each sentence she writes on the page. It is actually kind of insufferable. It isn't until a couple scenes in that the humor feels much more organic and therefore authentic. The third act is when her screenplay really takes off when her characters speak more like humans. I don't want to come across as disliking Cody's script. There are some great lines, huge laughs, and some superb comedic moments. However, I still maintain that I just don't buy some of the far too precious one liners.

Criticisms aside Diablo Cody will win an Oscar and for many reasons I do believe she should. She dares to be different and her personal story is pretty spectacular. However, she could suffer backlash because she is taking advantage of every aspect of her new found fame and this includes being the new Entertainment Weekly correspondent. Part of me thinks that Cody doesn't have to try very hard to fit into the Hollywood world and that she allows her talent to speak for itself. The other part of me thinks she is trying oh so hard to capitalize on everything she can until people say "Diablo who?" The nice person in me wants to think the former, but the realist in me suspects the latter.

My thoughts on the language in Juno and Cody as a the newest Hollywood specimen were summed up beautifully by a writer in Variety who said Juno sounds less like a 16 year old and more like a 30 year old trying to make a name for herself in Hollywood. And that's one doodle that can't be un-did.

The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actress

Early in the race it looked like Cate Blanchett would win in a cake walk with her truly mesmerizing take on Bob Dylan. It was a performance that could have gone wrong in so many ways, but it ended up being the most critically acclaimed aspect of the fascinating film experiment that was I'm Not There. By mid November most people were calling this race a done deal. That was until the critic awards went radio ga ga over Amy Ryan's unfit mother of the year in Gone Baby Gone. Britney has nothing on Ryan's Helene.

Amy Ryan has subsequently pulled ahead in this race and looks primed for a victory. I thought Blanchett and Ryan were both superb. But my vote in this category might lean toward Tilda Swinton who was marvelous as the WASPy corporate ice queen in Michael Clayton. Her character contained ten times the coldness that her Narnia White Witch counterpart ever dreamed of.

Of course Ryan, Blanchett, and Swinton are locks, but the other two spots are completely up in the air. Right now it's neck and neck between Ruby Dee for her glamorized cameo in American Gangester and Catherine Keener's hippie earth mother in Into The Wild. It's interesting to see that Keener can essentially do nothing in a film and still warrant attention. She is just that good. Case in point, see Capote. Saorise Ronan might slip in, but I wouldn't bet on it because Atonement seems to be (spoiler alert)...dead in a tube station. I would say that Ruby Dee has the fourth slot.

I am still sticking to my guns that Jennifer Garner will be nominated for Juno. She will get caught up in the Juno tidal wave. Not to mention she is really wonderfully affecting and heartbreaking as the tightly wound Vanessa. The scene where she is sitting at her spotless dining room table nursing a glass of red wine in total agony brings tears to my eyes at the thought of it.

Now if Garner does make it into the category the question is who does hubby Affleck root for, his wife or his front runner actress?

The Year of Testosterone

When I look back at 2007, I will always view it as the year of complete cinematic testosterone. If you look at many of the front runners for Best Picture; No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Into the Wild, and Michael Clayton, they feature testosterone heavy casts in testosterone heavy worlds. Last time I checked oil, hit men, corporate lawyers, and people anointing themselves with the last name Supertramp weren't exactly bringing the most feminine of images to mine.

Even movies at the periphery of this year's Oscar race such as American Gangster, 3:10 to Yuma, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, The Assassination of Jesse James... and even Superbad, and Transformers were about boys being boys.

You know that when one of the front runners in Best Supporting Actress is actually playing a man, that this year at the movies was truly the year of the man.

In the categories of Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor there are at least 10 legitimate strong contenders in each category that could receive nominations. I expect the only feminine presence in either of these categories, that is of course gender bending John Travolta's Edna Turnblad, to be snubbed in favor of far more masculine Tommy Lee Jones' Sheriff in No Country for Old Men or Philip Seymour Hoffman's CIA Agent in Charlie Wilson's War.

Both Actress categories on the other hand have only three strong contenders in each race and seem to be having problems filling the other two spots for a lack of crystal clear nomination worthy performances. In 2007 men definitely ruled with their cattle stun guns, oil pipelines, and infamous trips to spa. It could even be that three male performances win Oscars in 2007.

So who was the year's most important on screen female? Who wins the cinematic I AM WOMAN, HERE ME ROAR award in 2007? Well that would be a 16 year old pregnant teen named Juno. Honest to blog!

The State of the Race: Best Actor

The last few Best Actor races have had clear cut favorites steam roll through the awards circuit. Of course I am talking about the trio Jamie Foxx, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Forrest Whitaker.

This year it seems to be quite similar with Daniel Day Lewis' oil tycoon Daniel Plainview monopolizing the awards the same way his character monopolizes the black gold wells in Texas.

I would say it would be safe to call the race over, however I thought the same way five years ago when Day Lewis' Bill the Butcher looked like he would take his meat cleaver all the way to the podium. That was until Adrien Brody made a late surge and won the award.

I still expect Day Lewis to win for his monumental performance. His Howard Hughes-esque descent into madness is something truly spectacular.

I expect the four other nominees to be George Clooney (who might have stood a chance had he not won a handful of years ago), Viggo Mortensen, Johnny Depp (even though Sweeney is slipping very quickly), and Emile Hirsch.

Daniel Day Lewis and Clooney are locks. The other three could be subsituted in any order with James McAvoy (who does nothing to warrant any attention in Atonement) or Ryan Gosling (which would be a lovely surprise and a deserved nomination).

If there is a complete surprise in this category it could come in the form of Frank Langella, Tommy Lee Jones, or Josh Brolin (who should get a nod for his superb 75% non verbal performance.)

Now who's my personal vote in this category. While I can't help but give my own personal tip of the hat to Day Lewis, I would probably vote to Hirsch whose performance was as equally fascinating as his on screen persona.

D G A = Doesn't Get Atonement

DGA Noms were announced today and here's the list:

Coens - No Country for Old Men
PT Anderson- There Will Be Blood
Sean Penn - Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy - Michael Clayton


Notice how Tim Burton and Joe Wright were dissed. Both Atonement and Sweeney Todd were absent from the SAG race as well. Sweeney's stock is falling quickly with SAG and DGA slaps in the face and meager box office results. I'm surprised that There Will Be Blood and the Diving Bell... are doing so well considering how late they entered the Oscar race. Remember how Pan's Labyrinth and Children Of Men suffered from late entry-titis last year? DGA loves actors so I am not shocked to see Penn in the mix.

Next up the already infamous Globes press conference...

Critics Choice Awardzzz

Everyone who you thought would win, did. Christie beats Cotillard again.

It was boring and uneventful. Except Nikki Blonsky winning Best Younger Actress and Juno winning Best Comedy. I have nothing else to say.

DGA Predictions

The director's guild nominates its five favorite directors tomorrow. This race is particularly interesting because it could go so many different ways. Will they honor veteran Sidney Lumet? Will they go for Julian Schnabel and Paul Thomas Anderson who have come on strong in the final stretch? Will they snub Tim Burton and Joe Wright, whose films were snubbed by SAG? Will they honor Jason Reitman, whose screenwriter and lead have hogged all the attention? Will they go for actor/director Sean Penn? We'll wait and see...

Until then here are my predictions:

The Coen Brothers - No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood
Tim Burton - Sweeney Todd
Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright - Atonement

There Will Be Critic Awards!

The final major critics award was announced over the weekend with The National Board of Review choosing There Will Be Blood for picture and director and the most usual suspects in the acting categories.

None of the four critics groups picked anything shocking or surprising, making it for kind of bland year. I was hoping for say a Jennifer Garner win in Supporting Actress or a Josh Brolin win in Best Actor, but alas it didn't happen.

Here are the winners:

Best Pic - There Will Be Blood
Best Director - Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor - Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actress - Julie Christie
Best Supporting Actor - Casey Affleck
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett.

No Country for Old Men was the runner up in many categories. Javier Bardem and Amy Ryan were runner ups in the Supporting Categories. Further cementing all thre as the front runners. I am still not digging all this Julie Christie love/lack of Marion Cotillard love. Now we move onto the Golden Globes or simply a press release saying who won the golden globes... more on that later.

D'Juno who's going to win?

Sometimes I have a Oscar hunch. Sometimes I am way off, but sometimes I hit the nail on the head. This year my early hunch is that Ellen Page will walk away with the Oscar. She will become the youngest Best Actress winner ever, besting Marlee Martlin's win by more than a year. A twenty year old Best Actress winner might be considered a bit of a stretch. But here's why I have hunch.

The buzz for Juno is huge right now. When I was at the movie theatre last night both showings were sold out. Everyone is calling Juno, this year's Little Miss Sunshine. But I strongly disagree with this statement. I think that Juno has twice the screenplay and ten times the heart that Little Miss Sunshine had. Little Miss Sunshine also didn't have a monumental breakout performance like Juno does. Sure Abi Breslin and Alan Arkin were great. However, we all knew that Little Miss Sunshine was an ensemble effort. Hell, if there was a star in Little Miss Sunshine it was that damned yellow van. When people come out of Juno they do not forget Ellen Page. There is a difference between these two movies in that huge performance.

Back to my hunch, I also think people like Juno more than Little Miss Sunshine. I think that they'll want to reward it come Oscar time. Sure, Diablo Cody will win for Original Screenplay (50% for her Screenplay and 50% for her stripperella story). But if they really want to reward it, why not an Ellen Page win while there at it.

If voters can't decide between Julie Christie or Marion Cotillard. They will most likely go with Page. There are tons of reasons how Christie and Cotillard would turn voters away from the top prize. If you were a voter would you want to sit through a screener of a depressing Alzheimer's movie or a two hour+ Edith Piaf biopic or would you want a quirky 90 minute comedy that's all the buzz with the kids? Also voters could be swayed by the fact that Julie Christie has an Oscar and that Marion Cotillard is in a foreign language film. The last (and only) win for Best Actress in a Foreign Language film was Sophia Loren in 1961!

Buzz plays a huge part in the Oscar race. Often times people vote for who they think they should vote for, not necessarily who has delivered the best performance. My hunch and the buzz this moment all point to Page. Now we'll see if I am way off or if I hit the nail on the head.