American Idle?

I've blogged about the Oscars for what seems like the at least 90% of these blogs and have really neglected the stage and tube portion of this blog's title. More Oscar talk tomorrow but until then...

Tonight the 7th season of American Idol begins and producers have promised a stronger competition this year with more focus on creating unique artists as opposed to watered down semi pop stars that might have a single radio play song if they are lucky.

The past two seasons have been less than stellar. Has American Idol become Idle? It seems like it needs major kick in the pants to get back to its first three seasons glory (Season 3 still remains my favorite of all time). The '06 and '07 AI classes offered only a few memorable contestants and it is time that Idol turns out an Amy Winehouse or Mika instead of a Haley Scarnato or Anthony Fedorov. Why couldn't they have gone for Rachel Zevita last year. She was amazing.

Today I will list in my opinion the top five idol contestants of idol all time and tomorrow I will list the top five train wrecks season 1-6.

TOP FIVE

5. Fantasia - This woman was incredible. She is my favorite contestant of all time and for those who didn't "get" her, I seriously question their taste in all things having to do with hearing. She has had substantial success on the R & B circuit and made perhaps the most astonishing stage debut last year that Broadway has ever seen.

4. Chris Daughtry - After getting snubbed on Idol (finished 4th in 06) Daughtry turned down Live to be their lead singer and launched a massively huge solo career. His record was one of the top selling records of the past year. He also won a boatload of AMAs and a ton of Grammy noms. He is without a doubt the most successful male Idol ever.

3. Kelly Clarkson - The original winner has become one of the planet's biggest pop stars. She gave all Idol winners and non winners their legitimate artist cred. Breakaway was one of the best pop albums of the new century and Since You Been Gone is just so damned catchy. 2007 was a bit of a mid career hiccup for her, attempting to be less pop and enraging her music Pop (Clive Davis) in the process. But she'll come back...

2. Jennifer Hudson - Talk about the biggest story to ever come out of Idol. This woman finished 7th (7TH!!!!!) in American Idol season 3 and three years later she won an Oscar. Sure we haven't seen what Jennifer Hudson can do musically yet, but she already has so much damned clout it doesn't matter. She is in the upper echelons of the Hollywood's elite and has chosen some great post Oscar follow up projects. She's our modern day Aretha.

1. Carrie Underwood - Ms. Underwood is about as A list as you can get in the music industry. So far she has had essentially a perfect career and everything has come up Carrie. Sure it helped that entered into the country music industry, which is seemingly its own culture. But Carrie has massive cross over appeal. Before He Cheats was a delicious guilty pleasure that was played more often on non country radio. She has sold huge amount of albums and has won the most prestigious Grammy of any AI alumnus, Best New Artist. Carrie is now as arguably as big as the show that spawned her.

Hopefully this year AI will discover an artist that will someday be on the above list. Here's hoping. It all begins tonight!

The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor this year is a very strong category. Its front runner may be the performance of the year. That performance of course is of course Javier Bardem's Anton Chigurh, one of film's greatest villains ever rivaling even Darth Vaider and Hannibal Lector.

Javier Bardem has been the front runner from early on and he is, like his character, virtually unstoppable when it comes to winning this race.

Is it possible that someone could give him a run for the prize? Well it's always possible, but certainly not probable.

Three other strong contenders should be:

Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Casey Affleck in the Assassination of Jesse James...

The final spot is a dogfight between two previous Oscar winners who had multiple award worthy performances in '07.

Tommy Lee Jones was critically acclaimed for his grieving father in In the Valley of Elah, but that film's box office receipts never gave him a chance in the Actor category. Therefore he may be rewarded in the Supporting category for both In the Valley and his seen it all police sheriff in No Country for Old Men.

Meanwhile Philip Seymour Hoffman has had an incredible year, truly proving that he is Hollywood's greatest character actor. Hoffman was sensational in Before the Devil Knows You're Dead. He charmed critics in The Savages. However, he really blew them out of the water in Charlie Wilson's War.

I believe that PSH will get the final spot over Tommy Lee. But it won't really matter because Javier Bardem can't be caught both in his film and in this race.

PGA are Lance Bass with Globe Winners

The producer's guild nominated their top five of the year yesterday and absent on their list were both Globes Best Picture champs.

Atonement and Sweeney Todd are on precariously thin ice in the Oscar race. Right now I suspect that only one will be nominated for Best Pic and my vote changes each as to which one it will be.



PGA noms went like this:

The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Juno
There Will Be Blood
No Country for Old Men
Michael Clayton

Come Oscar time I suspect that the DB & B will be left out of the top five in favor of either Globe winner. Right now I say... Atonement. Nominations are a week from today!

No frontrunner for Old Oscar

The Golden Globes gave their annual awards out last night.This year's Globes featured a tremendously tacky ceremony on NBC starring celebrity leeches or celebrileeches Nancy O'Dell and Billy Bush announcing the winners. I am in solidarity with the writers, but if I have to sit through another one of these type of things I may change my tune. The horrendous banter between bottom of the barrel Bush and poor woman Mary Hart O'Dell made me long for a good ole fashioned Globe ceremony. I could have even dealt with three hours of staring at Rumer Willis.

I was tremendously off on my predictions last night because I chose performances and films that seemed to be unbeatable. However, there were several major surprises. Cate Blanchett beating Amy Ryan for one. Julian Shnabel picking up the award for Best Director for The Diving Bell over the Coens. The Coens winning Best Screenplay over Ms. Cody. Sweeney Todd winning Best Picture over Ms. Cody's creation. And Juno herself losing to Edith Piaf. I was also surprised to see Atonement win because I don't believe that people love it. I didn't.What last night cemented is that there is no front runner for Best Picture or Director. It's even possible that both Best Pictures at the Globes (Sweeney Todd and Atonement) will be left out of that category for Oscar. Possible yes, probable no! It would be something if both were left off the shortlist, creating an essential predicting nightmare. I really hope voters go for Sweeney Todd.

I still think No Country for Old Men and The Coen Brothers will win for Best Picture and Best Director. Both acting categories are now locked and loaded meaning that Day Lewis and Bardem can write their speeches now.

The Actress categories just got a lot more interesting. Early on it looked like a clear victory for Cate Blanchett, then the critics hailed Amy Ryan as their queen and she took the lead. Now Blanchett seems to have the edge. But my gut tells me that Ryan will win.

The Actress race is still a close battle between the vet, the newcomer, and the 20 year old. Cotillard needed that Globe win or she would have had no chance for the Oscar. Julie Christie is still the front runner but Cotillard is trailing very close. I hope Oscar voters come to their senses and see the need to reward her as much as Day Lewis and Bardem. And should either of the Cs lose steam Ellen Page will deservedly claim the prize. Something tells me that I don't think the Juno buzz has quite reached its due date yet.

Hollywood Foreign Depressed Association!

As you may have heard the Golden Globes are not happening tonight due to this damned writer's strike. This writer' strike is starting to really piss me off. A mere three episodes of Saturday Night Live this season, the film version of Nine getting postponed and of course abridge seasons of 30 Rock and Lost.

However, like the ladies on the View I do stand in solidarity with the writers. I think they deserve everything they are fighting for. But when it comes to my award shows I like them to be timely and to actually happen.

I am really looking forward to tonight's press conference but I will miss the speeches, dresses, and of course the fugliest human ever Miss Golden 2008 Rumer Willis.

Prediction time

Best Picture Drama - No Country for Old Men
Best Picture Comedy/Musical - Juno
Best Actor Drama - Daniel Day Lewis
Best Actor Comedy/Musical - Johnny Depp
Best Actress Drama - Julie Christie
Best Actress Comedy/Musical - sooooooooooooo tough my heart says Cotillard, but my head says Ellen Page
Best Supporting Actor - Javier Bardem
Best Supporting Actress - Amy Ryan
Animated Film - Ratatouille
Foreign Film - The Diving Bell and Butterfly
Director -Coen Brothers
Screenplay - Diablo Cody
Original Score - Dario Marinelli for Atonement
Original Song - Falling Slowly for Once

and TV

Best Drama Series - Damages
Best Comedy Series - 30 Rock
Best Drama Actor - Michael C. Hall
Best Comedy Actor - Ricky Gervais
Best Drama Actress - Glenn Close
Best Comedy Actress - Tina Fey
Best Miniseries or Movie - Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee
Best Actor M/M - Jim Broadbent
Best Actress M/M - Bryce Dallas Howard
Best Supporting Actor - Jeremy Piven
Best Supporting Actress - Kathryn Heigl

She tries really hard, actually!

It is a great time to be Diablo Cody. In case you haven't heard the amazing story behind 2007 Hollywood's It Girl, here goes. Cody was a stripper in Minnesota. She started a blog entitled the pussy ranch. Her blog was widely read and she parlayed in into a book deal about her stripping exploits. That book led a producer to encourage her to write a screenplay. That screenplay turned out to be Juno, the hilarious and touching story of a 16 year old pregnant teen. This fall the little pregnancy movie that could, written by the stripper has had Tinsel Town all a buzz!

However, not everyone has been on the Hamburger phone train this fall. Most people are probably jealous of her rags to riches story. But come on people, we shouldn't be so hard on her because she gives us bloggers and Hollywood wannabes hope.

If there is one aspect of Juno that's been criticized its been it's hipper than hip google-era dialogue. Many people aren't buying the legitimacy of the language coming from a 16 year old. Looking over the quotes page on IMDB and upon viewing the film twice, I am still not buying lines like "That ain't no etch-a-sketch. This is one doodle that can't be un-did, homeskillet" and "Hi, I'm calling to procure a hasty abortion..." Cody's script attempts to have such a distinct voice that it fails to ever convince me that many of the characters exist in any semblance of the real world. In the first two scenes of the film it seems as though she is attempting to one up each sentence she writes on the page. It is actually kind of insufferable. It isn't until a couple scenes in that the humor feels much more organic and therefore authentic. The third act is when her screenplay really takes off when her characters speak more like humans. I don't want to come across as disliking Cody's script. There are some great lines, huge laughs, and some superb comedic moments. However, I still maintain that I just don't buy some of the far too precious one liners.

Criticisms aside Diablo Cody will win an Oscar and for many reasons I do believe she should. She dares to be different and her personal story is pretty spectacular. However, she could suffer backlash because she is taking advantage of every aspect of her new found fame and this includes being the new Entertainment Weekly correspondent. Part of me thinks that Cody doesn't have to try very hard to fit into the Hollywood world and that she allows her talent to speak for itself. The other part of me thinks she is trying oh so hard to capitalize on everything she can until people say "Diablo who?" The nice person in me wants to think the former, but the realist in me suspects the latter.

My thoughts on the language in Juno and Cody as a the newest Hollywood specimen were summed up beautifully by a writer in Variety who said Juno sounds less like a 16 year old and more like a 30 year old trying to make a name for herself in Hollywood. And that's one doodle that can't be un-did.

The State of the Race: Best Supporting Actress

Early in the race it looked like Cate Blanchett would win in a cake walk with her truly mesmerizing take on Bob Dylan. It was a performance that could have gone wrong in so many ways, but it ended up being the most critically acclaimed aspect of the fascinating film experiment that was I'm Not There. By mid November most people were calling this race a done deal. That was until the critic awards went radio ga ga over Amy Ryan's unfit mother of the year in Gone Baby Gone. Britney has nothing on Ryan's Helene.

Amy Ryan has subsequently pulled ahead in this race and looks primed for a victory. I thought Blanchett and Ryan were both superb. But my vote in this category might lean toward Tilda Swinton who was marvelous as the WASPy corporate ice queen in Michael Clayton. Her character contained ten times the coldness that her Narnia White Witch counterpart ever dreamed of.

Of course Ryan, Blanchett, and Swinton are locks, but the other two spots are completely up in the air. Right now it's neck and neck between Ruby Dee for her glamorized cameo in American Gangester and Catherine Keener's hippie earth mother in Into The Wild. It's interesting to see that Keener can essentially do nothing in a film and still warrant attention. She is just that good. Case in point, see Capote. Saorise Ronan might slip in, but I wouldn't bet on it because Atonement seems to be (spoiler alert)...dead in a tube station. I would say that Ruby Dee has the fourth slot.

I am still sticking to my guns that Jennifer Garner will be nominated for Juno. She will get caught up in the Juno tidal wave. Not to mention she is really wonderfully affecting and heartbreaking as the tightly wound Vanessa. The scene where she is sitting at her spotless dining room table nursing a glass of red wine in total agony brings tears to my eyes at the thought of it.

Now if Garner does make it into the category the question is who does hubby Affleck root for, his wife or his front runner actress?