Globe/SAG Reactions!

Above is a picture of me titled as an Oscar blogger on Canada's version of Entertainment Tonight, however I am an impostor because I haven't blogged in over a week and I have no excuse beyond gaying out with my boyfriend and Christmas shopping for BBC miniseries for my mom.

So here's a long overdue blog concerning the recent Globe and SAG noms and how they effect the Oscar race overall.

Best Picture:

Welcome back to the race Inglorious Basterds. I had really completely written off Inglorious Basterds and it seems like it will be a major contender after all. I thought The Hurt Locker would be more of an also ran in the Oscar race. I didn't think it had the power to win big, but now it seems like a neck and neck race between The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air. Up in the Air was snubbed for Best ensemble at the SAGs, but it doesn't really effect its ultimate chance in my opinion. Nine still seems very much in the race despite it's incredible cold to luke warm reviews. The fact that the HFPA loves a musical and its ensemble could not be denied of a SAG nom, it will more than likely make it into Best Picture. The Globes and SAGs have officially sentenced The Lovely Bones to the same fate as the film's lead character. Interesting that Invictus was left out of Best Picture at the Globes, while Eastwood, Freeman, and Damon were all nominated. Precious made a nice appearance at the Globes and SAGs, despite the fact that Lee Daniels was left out of the Globe Director race. A Single Man didn't factor as much as I thought it would. The Globes left it out of Best Picture and Director and SAGs failed to nominate Julianne Moore. I think Avatar will factor hugely in this race. The Globes or SAGs were not where it was expected to garner a ton of support. Here's who I think will be the ten nominees:

The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Up
Invictus
Nine
Avatar
Precious
An Education
(500) Days of Summer

Best Actor

Not major shocks here. The 5 I expected before these nominations are still the 5 that I believe will be the final five. The SAGs snubbed Day-Lewis, which I didn't expect. I don't think The Academy will do the same. But if anyone is going to get his spot, it will be Jeremy Renner.

Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart

Best Actress

Big confirmation here is that Sandra Bullock is the real deal for Best Actress. I feel confident in saying that Sandy will be a Best Actress nominee. 15 years after Speed, Sandra Bullock's two movies make over 300 million dollars at the box office and she gets her first ever Best Actress nomination. Not such a bad time to be her, right? I was surprised to see Helen Mirren's support for The Last Station, a film that has received virtually no buzz except for the fact that it stars Mirren and Plummer. I am sad to see Saoirse Ronan left off both lists. I haven't seen The Lovely Bones, but I was a major fan of the novel and think that Ronan is a spectacular performer. But I guess not everyone can have two Oscar nominations by age 15. This race is still a 3 way race. But I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think anyone can touch Carey Mulligan.

Gabourey Sidibe - Precious
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

Best Supporting Actor -

No major shake ups here. Christoph Waltz is clearly going to win. I again am surprised to see Plummer recognized, but it would be nice for him to receive his first ever Oscar nom. It would also be nice if Alec Baldwin had been nommed. Hopefully the Academy will nominate him so that we have that great opportunity for the host/nominee tension and excitement.

Christoph Waltz - Inglorious Basterds
Matt Damon - Invictus
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress -

I felt that this category was practically written in stone from the get go. I thought maybe Farminga would be pushed out by Dench or a category shift by Cotillard. But I feel safe in saying that the final 5 will be who I expected them to be. Interesting that Moore was snubbed by the SAGs in favor of Diane Kruger. This will not happen with the Academy who adore nominated Julianne Moore. (They just don't adore giving her an Oscar).

Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Vera Farminga - Up in the Air
Mo'Nique - Precious
Penelope Cruz - Nine
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

Best Director -

I have no clue how this will play out come Oscar. I can't imagine that Kathryn Bigelow will be the first ever female winner of Best Director. I just don't think the old boys club is ready for that quite yet. However I do expect the nominees to be:

Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Quentin Tarantino - Inglorious Basterds

This isn't such a bad line up?

The Oscar race settles down a little bit for the holidays. Next up we have National Society of Film Critics and more precursors. Also upcoming is the year 2010, which means we are starting a new decade, which also means I need to start my best of the decade lists of films and performances. Did I mention I love this time of year?