Slumdog, Boyle, Penn, Winslet, Ledger, Cruz!

That’s where I would place my bets, if I was a betting man. If I was more of a gambler I’d go with Mickey Rourke but I am definitely more conservative, religiously, politically and Oscar racially.

Here are my official final predictions:

Best Picture-
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s been unbeatable at this point. It’s won everything in sight. Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA, DGA, SAG. It’s the little picture that could, did and will.
Should win: Milk
Sure it was a pretty standard biopic, but it was pretty fucking incredible. It was superbly shot and brilliantly performed. This is where my vote would go.
Possible spoiler: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It leads the nomination race, but this will not happen.
Should have been nominated: WALL-E
Animated or not it’s still the best movie of 2008.

Best Director –
Will win: Danny Boyle
No contest here. He is has lapped every other contender in this category.

Should win: Danny Boyle
His work on this film was first rate. It was beautifully shot, well paced, and equal parts hilarious, charming and touching.

Possible spoiler: ---------------
No one will beat Danny Boyle so this is a waste of words on this blog.

Should have been nominated: Andrew Stanton
Andrew Stanton has made brilliant film after brilliant film with WALL E potentially being his magnum opus thus far. When will the Academy ignore the idea that an animated film deserves recognition in the Animated Feature category only?

Best Actor –
Will win: Sean Penn
This is the race of the night and will create the most drama. I can’t think of a Best Actor race this hotly contested since the 2002 trio of Nicholson, Brody and Day-Lewis. This is me playing it conservative and going for the safe choice. Penn was phenomenal in Milk and does deserve to win. The Academy has thrown tons of support in Milk’s direction and this (along with Best Original Screenplay) is where they can reward it.
Should win: Mickey Rourke
Mickey Rourke’s performance is the best performance of the year or any year, in my opinion. The film is his performance along the lines of DeNiro in Raging Bull or Marlon Brando in The Godfather. It really would be the ultimate comeback story. But can Oscar really welcome Mickey Rourke to their elite club? Something in my gut tells me no. However, I remember predicting the conservative choice in Julie Christie for Best Actress last year and we all know how that ended up.

Possible spoiler: Mickey Rourke
Honestly at this point it’s a toss up.

Should have been nominated: Leonardo Dicaprio
I will never truly understand the lack of love for Revolutionary Road. It was Leo’s most mature and commanding performance to date.

Best Actress -
Will win: Kate Winslet
It’s about time! How is Hilary Swank a two time winner and Kate Winslet is a 5 time loser? She had two brilliant performances in 2008 and she’s her generation’s finest actress. While I would have preferred she won for Revolutionary Road, beggars can’t be choosers.
Should win: Anyone but Angelina.
I think this category is pretty incredible this year. Streep was over the top, but still better than anyone else. Winslet’s performance was subtle and heartbreaking. Hathaway was surprising and moving. And Melissa Leo literally became Ray Eddy. I am still not over Sally Hawkins snub though. I may never be.
Possible spoiler: Melissa Leo
If for some reason Oscar voters can’t decide between Meryl or Kate, I seriously believe that a Melissa Leo win is not out of the question.
Should have been nominated: Sally Hawkins
For creating the most interesting, original and believable character seen on screen in 2008.

Best Supporting Actor -
Will win: Heath Ledger
Not just because he died but because it was a jaw dropping brilliant performance. Whoever thought the Joker could be so complex, tortured and brilliantly insane. A beyond belief performance

Should win: Heath Ledger
DUH!
Possible spoiler: Hell freezing over

Deserved a nomination: David Kross & Bill Irwin.
Both Irwin and Kross delivered superb supporting performances but they were overshadowed by their more famous costars and never got any buzz to really throw their hats in the ring.

Best Supporting Acress -
Will win: Penelope Cruz
Supporting Actress Awards typically goes to a 20 or 30’s something beautiful woman (Judi Dench aside). The award in this category also likes to often go to a performance from a Woody Allen film. When Winslet was bumped up to lead category for The Reader, this award was literally put in the hands of Cruz. She won most of the film critic awards and is a previous nominee, so I can’t see how she could lose.
Should win: Amy Adams
Before you jump down my throat and tell me to get over my obsession of Enchanted, I must say that I think Amy Adams did the most interesting work in the category. She made some fascinating choices and turned a thankless role into something with legitimate meat and substance. In the play Doubt, Sister James is a sounding board for Sister Aloysius, however here Adams turns Sister James into the moral compass of the film.
Possible spoiler: Viola Davis
Oscar loves a scene-stealer! Ask Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight. So if any one is going to trip up Penelope Cruz’s trip to the podium, it’s going to be Viola Davis in her 10 minute long, mucous filled, firework erupting confrontation with Meryl Streep.
Should have been nominated: Rosemarie Dewitt
Dewitt goes head to toe with Hathaway and delivers! I still can’t believe she didn’t get attention for this performance.

That’s it for the major categories. Stay tuned for minor categories!