Final Oscar Predictions 2010.

I love Oscar morning. It's better than Xmas morning. I have stayed home from school/work every year since 1995 and waited with baited breath for the nominations. I love hearing the announcement of surprise nominees (2003's Keisha Castle Hughes for Best Actress, The Blind Side for Best Picture in 2009 and 2008's Best Actress, and not Supporting, nomination of Kate Winslet for The Reader) and the big snubs (2008's The Dark Knight snub for Best Picture and Director, Sideway's Paul Giamatti in 2004 for Best Actor and Mulholland Drive's Naomi Watts for Best Actress in 2001).

There are always surprises and always snubs. 2009's lineup was fairly predictable, while 2008 was full of pleasant and not so pleasant surprises. Where will this year fall? We are only 12 hours away.

Here are my final official predictions:

Best Picture
The Social Network
The King's Speech
Inception
The Fighter
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
True Grit
127 Hours
The Kids Are All Right
The Town

(alt. Winter's Bone)

Best Director
Christopher Nolan - Inception
David Fincher - The Social Network
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
David O. Russell - The Fighter

(alt. The Coen Brothers - True Grit)

Best Actor
James Franco - 127 Hours
Jeff Bridges - True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Robert Duvall - Get Low

(alt. Mark Wahlberg - The Fighter)

Best Actress
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right

(alt. Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit)

Best Supporting Actor
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Jeremy Renner - The Town
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

(alt. John Hawkes - Winter's Bone)

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

(alt. Mila Kunis - Black Swan)

Best Original Screenplay

The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
The King's Speech
Black Swan

(alt. Blue Valentine)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winter's Bone
Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
True Grit

(alt. The Town)

Go for broke prediction: Hailee Steinfeld takes a spot in Best Actress knocking out Michelle Williams and Mila Kunis gets her spot in Supporting Actress.

Happy Oscar nom morn everybody.

Golden Globe Reactions.

The Golden Globes were handed out on Sunday night and things suddenly became a lot more clear in this year's Oscar race. I will do my best in this blog to make sense of what we learned from Sunday awards.

First let me address the TV award winners. I was all over the place in my TV predictions. But I have learned this: if you are an actor in a new show or simply a new show that has a sufficient amount of buzz, you will win a Golden Globe. The Globes love anything that's new (see this year's big wins for Boardwalk Empire, Steve Buscemi, Katey Segal, & Laura Linney). They always have and I should never believe they would actually reward the truly deserving Elisabeth Moss, 4 seasons deep into Mad Men.
While was thrilled for Chris Colfer's win and I love the fact that he is becoming the standout star of Glee, I will not believe that Glee is the best comedy on TV. 30 Rock and Modern Family are in a different Universe. But I guess it's simply the newest buzz-worthiest comedy on TV. I have almost no faith in the Globe TV awards because new doesn't mean best. Rant over.

Now let's move onto the Oscar race. (I did do very well in my Globe film predictions by the wya, 12 out of 14 correct). Let's talk through each category post Golden Globes.
Best Picture: Critics and Oscar bloggers were saying that The King's Speech still had what it took to win Best Picture if it won at the Globes, however now I think it's safe to say things are a done deal. The Social Network will win Best Picture. It has won everything on the map.
Best Director: David Fincher will win Best Director. Also a done deal. He's well respected and he did great work with The Social Network. I'd be inclined to vote for Christopher Nolan though.
Best Actor: Colin Firth wins Best Actor Drama and cements himself as the front runner over James Franco. It was nice to see Paul Giamatti win for Barney's Version. Being Canadian and loving his love letter speech to my homeland, made me very happy to see this happen. However, Giamatti is a very very long shot to get into the top 5 actor race come Oscar.
Best Actress: I don't think we are any clearer in terms of a clear cut victor in this race, Bening wins in Comedy and Portman wins in Drama. However I did notice an unbelievable amount of support for Portman when her name was announced among the nominees for Best Actress drama. Her speech was absolutely charming and lovely and she looked radiant. I know it sounds trite to say she was charming in her speech and looked pretty, but in terms of the Oscar race these things actually matter. I think Portman is still in the lead. I think people want her to win this Oscar. I think Black Swan has more support overall than The Kids Are All Right (Aronofsky will be among the nominees for director while Lisa Cholodenko will not be). I think the Oscar is Portman's. I would be shocked if Bening won at this point.
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale wins the Globe and will win the Oscar. Geoffrey Rush, Bale's toughest competition, won't be able to trip him up. Plus support for The King's Speech will undoubtedly be thrown in Firth's direction.
Best Supporting Actress: This is the race with the largest question mark in front of it. This year it seems to suffer from the fact that no one really deserves the award. There is a Mo'Nique type performance in the category. It seems to be a category of performances that other years usually fill out a Best Supporting Actress category. Melissa Leo wins the Globe. She also won The Critics choice award but was not even nominated for The BAFTA. Some bloggers have said Helena Bonham Carter could win, but it isn't really a winning performance just nice, solid work. Amy Adams is great in The Fighter, but it's not the role one wins an Oscar for. Hailee Steinfeld (who strangely was not nominated for a Globe) could actually win this category, that is if she's not nominated for Best Actress come Oscar time. If I were to bet right now, I would bet on Melissa Leo. If she wins the SAG, she's pretty much guaranteed an Oscar and it looks like the cards are falling that way.

Oscar noms are less than a week away. It's Oscar fans Xmas morning on Tuesday. Most categories are pretty sewn up in terms of 3 or 4 nominees. But I expect some surprises. Time to get excited!

Golden Globe Predictions

Here are my last minute, no holds barred Golden Globe predictions.

Film

Best Picture - Drama - The Social Network
Best Picture - Comedy or Musical - The Kids Are All Right
Best Actor - Drama - Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Best Actor - Comedy - Johnny Depp - Alice in Wonderland
Best Actress - Drama - Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Best Actress - Comedy - Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale - The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Best Director - David Fincher - The Social Network
Best Screenplay - The Social Network
Best Foreign Film - Biutiful
Best Animated Film - Toy Story 3
Best Original Song - You Haven't Seen the Last of Me - Burlesque
Best Score - The Social Network

TV

Best Drama Series - Boardwalk Empire
Best Comedy Series - Modern Family
Best Actor Drama Series - Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Best Actor Comedy Series - Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Best Actor Miniseries/Movie - Al Pacino - You Don't Know Jack
Best Actress Drama Series - Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
Best Actress Comedy Series - Laura Linney - The Big C
Best Actress Miniseries/Movie - Claire Danes - Temple Grandin
Best Supporting Actress - Jane Lynch - Glee
Best Supporting Actor - Eric Stonestreet - Modern Family

Catching up with this Oscar race in 2011

Happy New Year. Wishing everyone the best in 2011!

Here we go. We are now in the home stretch of the Oscar race. The holiday release rush is over and things are getting more and more clear by the day. I have been able to see the few remaining contenders that I had yet to see: True Grit, The Fighter, and Blue Valentine.

Since we left off before the new year we had yet to see the Director's Guild of America nominees, the Producer's Guild nominees and The National Society of Film Critic Awards. Every day a new set of Guild nominations come out but I see The DGA and PGA as the most prolific in terms of their affect on the Oscar race.

DGA noms went as followed:
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David O. Russell, The Fighter
Christopher Nolan, Inception

Reactions: The big shock here is the lack of the Coen Brothers for True Grit. I am not entirely surprised as the Coen Brothers have put out so many superior efforts over the past decade. I am very surprised to see David O. Russell on this list for The Fighter. The Fighter seemed to me to be a film that would be recognized for its performances and left out of the larger categories but it seems there has been a shift of support for the film. I expect Russell to be left out of the top 5 come Oscar time in favor of the Coen Brothers. Would have loved to see Debra Granik for Winter's Bone, but we can't win them all. I am also surprised to see Danny Boyle left off this list for what I feel is superior work to his DGA winning Slumdog Millionaire.

PGA Noms:


127 HOURS
Producers: Danny Boyle, Christian Colson

BLACK SWAN
Producers: Scott Franklin, Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver

INCEPTION
Producers: Christopher Nolan, Emma Thomas

THE FIGHTER
Producers: David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman, Mark Wahlberg

THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Producers: Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte, Celine Rattray

THE KING’S SPEECH
Producers: Iain Canning, Emile Sherman, Gareth Unwin

THE SOCIAL NETWORK
Producers: Dana Brunetti, Ceán Chaffin, Michael De Luca, Scott Rudin

THE TOWN
Producers: Basil Iwanyk, Graham King

TOY STORY 3
Producer: Darla K. Anderson

TRUE GRIT
Producers: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Scott Rudin

Reactions: No major shockers here, although I am very disappointed to see Winter's Bone left out here. I consider it to be the kind of film that the PGA would want to reward. A small, indie movie whose producers worked their butts off for it to get national attention and accolades it deserves. Hopefully come Oscar, it squeezes out The Kids Are All Right. Otherwise I think these films are a good representation of the best of the year.

NSoFC
Here are the winners of the last major critics group to announce in 2010:

* Best Film:
o The Social Network

* Best Director:
o David Fincher – The Social Network

* Best Actor:
o Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

* Best Actress:
o Giovanna Mezzogiorno – Vincere

* Best Supporting Actor:
o Geoffrey Rush – The King's Speech

* Best Supporting Actress:
o Olivia Williams – The Ghost Writer

* Best Screenplay:
o Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network

* Best Cinematography:
o Roger Deakins – True Grit

* Best Foreign Language Film:
o Carlos

* Best Film - Non-Fiction:
o Inside Job

Reactions: So it seems that The Social Network could not be beat. It swept all 4 major critic awards. I think it will be pretty tough to beat for Best Picture come Oscar day. Jesse Eisenberg has gone from potential nominee to potential spoiler for Colin Firth. I am sure Giovanna Mezzogiorno is thrilled to win this, but this doesn't help us Oscar junkies as we decipher between the head to head battle of Portman and Bening. Rush is wonderful, but the Oscar is still Bale's. Could Williams be a spoiler? I've been hearing her name a lot lately. Hmmm???


Those were the major developments over the past few weeks. The Golden Globes are Sunday and that will really kick things into high gear. Will The Social Network continue to reign or will The King's Speech knock it off it's pedastle? Who will win the laughable comedy awards? And who will win Supporting Actress? Leo, Adams, or Carter?

Updated Oscar predictions.

Here are my post NBoR, NY, LA, Globe and SAG Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

Black Swan
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
The Town
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
True Grit

Best Director

Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network

Best Actor

James Franco - 127 Hours
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Jeff Bridges - True Grit

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Jeremy Renner - The Town
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Original Screenplay

The King's Speech
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Another Year

Adapted Screenplay

Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
True Grit

Well played SAGs

Earlier this week, a laughable list Golden Globe nominees were announced. Today, it was SAG's turn to announce their nomination list. Kudos to SAG for coming up with a pretty inspired list of nominees.

Here's who they went for:
Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Male Actor, Leading
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 hours
Female Actor, Leading
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Male Actor, Supporting
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jon Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Female Actor, Supporting
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailey Steinfeld, True Grit

Here are my overall thoughts:

-I think the ensemble nominees are strong although I am surprised to see both Inception and The Town, both particularly strong ensemble films, off the list.

- Black Swan & The Fighter seem assured a Best Pic nom after its strong showing at the BFCA, the Globes and here.

- True Grit makes a strong statement after being completely ignored by The Globes.

-I like the Robert Duvall- Get Low mention. SAG kept his dwindling Oscar hopes alive.

-Hilary Swank???????? Over Michelle Williams, Lesley Manville, Sally Hawkins and even Noomi Rapace. I guess Bening can't really be competitive in an Oscar race without Swank somehow being involved.

- I am thrilled with the John Hawkes nomination. He so deserves accolades for his incredible character work in Winter's Bone. It's still an uphill battle to make it into this category at the Oscars, but this certainly helps.

- Renner looks more and more like a lock every day for his work in The Town. I still expect Garfield to make it into the Oscar race. This is just a minor omission.

- Jacki Weaver is snubbed here, which is surprising because she was recognized by the starfucking Globes.

- Mila Kunis keeps gaining momentum, while co-star Barbara Hershey's chances are quickly diminishing.

- It looks more and more likely that Melissa Leo is going to win an Oscar.


What a week! I am spent. But I will update my official Oscar predictions in the wake of these incredible busy past 5 days.

Golden G-LOL-bes

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group responsible for the Golden Globe Awards, is a joke. The 90 person strong association has virtually no clout whatsoever. It is still a mystery to me what they actually do. I think (based on what I've read) that they write about films in foreign publications but I am more inclined to say (based on their year after year behavior) that they are essentially star fuckers, so keen to whore their award ceremony to staple red carpet celebs than actual deserving films and performances. Their credibility is constantly in question and they are inching closer and closer to The People Choice Awards ridiculousness.

This year may have been their lowest of lows. Seriously their list of nominees was bad! Let's look at this year's list:


Best Motion Picture, Drama:

‘Black Swan’
‘The Fighter’
‘Inception’
‘The King’s Speech’
‘The Social Network’

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

‘Alice in Wonderland’
‘Burlesque’
‘The Kids Are All Right’
‘Red’
‘The Tourist’

Best Director – Motion Picture:

Darren Aronofsky, ‘Black Swan’
David Fincher, ‘Social Network’
Tom Hooper – ‘The King’s Speech’
Christopher Nolan ‘Inception’
David O. Russell – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actor
in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Jesse Eisenberg – ‘Social Network’
Colin Firth – ‘The King’s Speech’
James Franco – ‘127 Hours’
Ryan Gosling – ‘Blue Valentine’
Mark Wahlberg – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Halle Berry, ‘Frankie and Alice’
Nicole Kidman, ‘Rabbit Hole’
Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Winter’s Bone’
Natalie Portman, ‘Black Swan’
Michelle Williams, ‘Blue Valentine’

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Johnny Depp – ‘Alice in Wonderland’
Johnny Depp – ‘The Tourist’
Paul Giamatti – ‘Barney’s Version’
Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Kevin Spacey – ‘Casino Jack’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Annette Bening, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Anne Hathaway, ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Angelina Jolie, ‘The Tourist’
Julianne Moore, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Emma Stone, ‘Easy A’

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:

Christian Bale, ‘The Fighter’
Michael Douglas, ‘Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps’
Andrew Garfield, ‘The Social Network’
Jeremy Renner, ‘The Town’
Geoffrey Rush, ‘The King’s Speech’

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:

Amy Adams, ‘The Fighter’
Helena Bonham Carter, ‘The King’s Speech’
Mila Kunis, ‘Black Swan’
Melissa Leo, ‘The Fighter’
Jacki Weaver, ‘Animal Kingdom’


I don't find the Drama nominations all that terrible. But where is True Grit? And why is Halle Berry nominated for the little seen Frankie and Alice? Oh that's right, because she'll look beautiful in reaction shots during the ceremony. And no offense to Michael Douglas, but that nomination is really a sympathy nom and everyone knows that. Mila Kunis was fine in Black Swan, but over co-star Barbara Hershey and the mesmerizing Marion Cotillard in Inception.

The Comedy nominations are beyond ridiculous. I'd actually be embarrassed to be a member of the HFPA based on that list alone. Let's start with The Tourist getting nominated for Best Picture. The Tourist is a thriller, not a comedy. It's not Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which I would have happily welcomed comedy nominations from in 2005. Let's continue with Burlesque for Best Picture. The HFPA goes gaga for musicals, but come on! Alice in Wonderland for Best Pictre? It was dreadful and completely devoid of any heart. And I don't really consider The Kids Are All Right a comedy, but to each their own. The only comedy nomination that I am fully in support of is Emma Stone in Easy A. A total break out lead comedy performance. If Bening wasn't in her category, I'd say she'd have a shot.

So who is on the up and up and who is on the outs after these nominations were announced? True Grit was no where to be seen but I don't think that's a major problem. The HFPA aren't major fans of the Coen Brothers. Lesley Manville and Mike Leigh's Another Year seems to be losing considerable steam.I think it's safe to say that Sally Hawkins/Miranda Richardson and Made in Dagenham are officially out. 127 Hours seemed at one point to be a major front runner but I think that the buzz seems to have shifted just to Franco's performance. Let's hope that it shifts back to Danny Boyle's great directorial effort in the next few weeks. Blue Valentine got a major boost with both Gosling and Williams' nominations. I think The Fighter and Black Swan have proven that they are major contenders beyond Portman and Bale's performances. And we know that The Social Network and The King's Speech are still the films, neck and neck, leading the pack.

Next up SAG.