Updated Oscar predictions.

Here are my post NBoR, NY, LA, Globe and SAG Oscar predictions.

Best Picture

Black Swan
127 Hours
Toy Story 3
The Town
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
True Grit

Best Director

Danny Boyle - 127 Hours
Christopher Nolan - Inception
Darren Aronofsky - Black Swan
Tom Hooper - The King's Speech
David Fincher - The Social Network

Best Actor

James Franco - 127 Hours
Colin Firth - The King's Speech
Jesse Eisenberg - The Social Network
Robert Duvall - Get Low
Jeff Bridges - True Grit

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawrence - Winter's Bone
Annette Bening - The Kids Are All Right
Natalie Portman - Black Swan
Nicole Kidman - Rabbit Hole
Michelle Williams - Blue Valentine

Best Supporting Actor

Jeremy Renner - The Town
Geoffrey Rush - The King's Speech
Andrew Garfield - The Social Network
Christian Bale - The Fighter
Mark Ruffalo - The Kids Are All Right

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams - The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter - The King's Speech
Melissa Leo - The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld - True Grit
Jacki Weaver - Animal Kingdom

Original Screenplay

The King's Speech
Black Swan
The Kids Are All Right
Inception
Another Year

Adapted Screenplay

Toy Story 3
The Social Network
Winter's Bone
127 Hours
True Grit

Well played SAGs

Earlier this week, a laughable list Golden Globe nominees were announced. Today, it was SAG's turn to announce their nomination list. Kudos to SAG for coming up with a pretty inspired list of nominees.

Here's who they went for:
Cast in a Motion Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Male Actor, Leading
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Robert Duvall, Get Low
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 hours
Female Actor, Leading
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction
Male Actor, Supporting
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Jon Hawkes, Winter's Bone
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Female Actor, Supporting
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailey Steinfeld, True Grit

Here are my overall thoughts:

-I think the ensemble nominees are strong although I am surprised to see both Inception and The Town, both particularly strong ensemble films, off the list.

- Black Swan & The Fighter seem assured a Best Pic nom after its strong showing at the BFCA, the Globes and here.

- True Grit makes a strong statement after being completely ignored by The Globes.

-I like the Robert Duvall- Get Low mention. SAG kept his dwindling Oscar hopes alive.

-Hilary Swank???????? Over Michelle Williams, Lesley Manville, Sally Hawkins and even Noomi Rapace. I guess Bening can't really be competitive in an Oscar race without Swank somehow being involved.

- I am thrilled with the John Hawkes nomination. He so deserves accolades for his incredible character work in Winter's Bone. It's still an uphill battle to make it into this category at the Oscars, but this certainly helps.

- Renner looks more and more like a lock every day for his work in The Town. I still expect Garfield to make it into the Oscar race. This is just a minor omission.

- Jacki Weaver is snubbed here, which is surprising because she was recognized by the starfucking Globes.

- Mila Kunis keeps gaining momentum, while co-star Barbara Hershey's chances are quickly diminishing.

- It looks more and more likely that Melissa Leo is going to win an Oscar.


What a week! I am spent. But I will update my official Oscar predictions in the wake of these incredible busy past 5 days.

Golden G-LOL-bes

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, the group responsible for the Golden Globe Awards, is a joke. The 90 person strong association has virtually no clout whatsoever. It is still a mystery to me what they actually do. I think (based on what I've read) that they write about films in foreign publications but I am more inclined to say (based on their year after year behavior) that they are essentially star fuckers, so keen to whore their award ceremony to staple red carpet celebs than actual deserving films and performances. Their credibility is constantly in question and they are inching closer and closer to The People Choice Awards ridiculousness.

This year may have been their lowest of lows. Seriously their list of nominees was bad! Let's look at this year's list:


Best Motion Picture, Drama:

‘Black Swan’
‘The Fighter’
‘Inception’
‘The King’s Speech’
‘The Social Network’

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

‘Alice in Wonderland’
‘Burlesque’
‘The Kids Are All Right’
‘Red’
‘The Tourist’

Best Director – Motion Picture:

Darren Aronofsky, ‘Black Swan’
David Fincher, ‘Social Network’
Tom Hooper – ‘The King’s Speech’
Christopher Nolan ‘Inception’
David O. Russell – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actor
in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Jesse Eisenberg – ‘Social Network’
Colin Firth – ‘The King’s Speech’
James Franco – ‘127 Hours’
Ryan Gosling – ‘Blue Valentine’
Mark Wahlberg – ‘The Fighter’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama:

Halle Berry, ‘Frankie and Alice’
Nicole Kidman, ‘Rabbit Hole’
Jennifer Lawrence, ‘Winter’s Bone’
Natalie Portman, ‘Black Swan’
Michelle Williams, ‘Blue Valentine’

Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Johnny Depp – ‘Alice in Wonderland’
Johnny Depp – ‘The Tourist’
Paul Giamatti – ‘Barney’s Version’
Jake Gyllenhaal – ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Kevin Spacey – ‘Casino Jack’

Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy:

Annette Bening, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Anne Hathaway, ‘Love and Other Drugs’
Angelina Jolie, ‘The Tourist’
Julianne Moore, ‘The Kids Are All Right’
Emma Stone, ‘Easy A’

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture:

Christian Bale, ‘The Fighter’
Michael Douglas, ‘Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps’
Andrew Garfield, ‘The Social Network’
Jeremy Renner, ‘The Town’
Geoffrey Rush, ‘The King’s Speech’

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture:

Amy Adams, ‘The Fighter’
Helena Bonham Carter, ‘The King’s Speech’
Mila Kunis, ‘Black Swan’
Melissa Leo, ‘The Fighter’
Jacki Weaver, ‘Animal Kingdom’


I don't find the Drama nominations all that terrible. But where is True Grit? And why is Halle Berry nominated for the little seen Frankie and Alice? Oh that's right, because she'll look beautiful in reaction shots during the ceremony. And no offense to Michael Douglas, but that nomination is really a sympathy nom and everyone knows that. Mila Kunis was fine in Black Swan, but over co-star Barbara Hershey and the mesmerizing Marion Cotillard in Inception.

The Comedy nominations are beyond ridiculous. I'd actually be embarrassed to be a member of the HFPA based on that list alone. Let's start with The Tourist getting nominated for Best Picture. The Tourist is a thriller, not a comedy. It's not Mr. and Mrs. Smith, which I would have happily welcomed comedy nominations from in 2005. Let's continue with Burlesque for Best Picture. The HFPA goes gaga for musicals, but come on! Alice in Wonderland for Best Pictre? It was dreadful and completely devoid of any heart. And I don't really consider The Kids Are All Right a comedy, but to each their own. The only comedy nomination that I am fully in support of is Emma Stone in Easy A. A total break out lead comedy performance. If Bening wasn't in her category, I'd say she'd have a shot.

So who is on the up and up and who is on the outs after these nominations were announced? True Grit was no where to be seen but I don't think that's a major problem. The HFPA aren't major fans of the Coen Brothers. Lesley Manville and Mike Leigh's Another Year seems to be losing considerable steam.I think it's safe to say that Sally Hawkins/Miranda Richardson and Made in Dagenham are officially out. 127 Hours seemed at one point to be a major front runner but I think that the buzz seems to have shifted just to Franco's performance. Let's hope that it shifts back to Danny Boyle's great directorial effort in the next few weeks. Blue Valentine got a major boost with both Gosling and Williams' nominations. I think The Fighter and Black Swan have proven that they are major contenders beyond Portman and Bale's performances. And we know that The Social Network and The King's Speech are still the films, neck and neck, leading the pack.

Next up SAG.

They like it. They really, really like it.

This is a major week for the Oscar season. LA Film Critics Awards were announced yesterday. New York Film Awards announced today as did the Broadcast Film Critics Association. Tomorrow the Golden Globe nominees are announced. And Thursday the SAG nominees are announced. Not to mention Boston (and many other cities) and the AFI group have announced their years best as well.

One thing seems to be pretty consistent. The Social Network is the unanimous pick for the Best Film of the Year. LA, New York, National Board of Review, Boston, Southeastern Film Critics, New York Film Critics online, Indiana Film Journalists have all called the film the best of the year. I think it's safe to say it may be the frontrunner for Best Picture in the race.

Let's breakdown what happened in LA and NY.

LA:

PICTURE:

* “The Social Network”
* Runner-up: “Carlos”

DIRECTOR:

* Olivier Assayas, “Carlos,” and David Fincher, “The Social Network” (tie)

ACTOR:

* Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
* Runner-up: Edgar Ramirez, “Carlos”

ACTRESS:

* Kim Hye-ja, “Mother”
* Runner-up: Jennifer Lawrence, “Winter’s Bone”

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

* Niels Arestrup, “A Prophet”
* Runner-up: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

* Jacki Weaver, “Animal Kingdom”
* Runner-up: Olivia Williams, “The Ghost Writer”

SCREENPLAY:

* Aaron Sorkin, “The Social Network”
* Runner-up: David Seidler, “The King’s Speech”

No suprise that The Social Network did well here. Colin Firth picks up some steam with his first big win. Kim Hye-ja takes the award from Jennifer Lawrence, who could really have used the win to make her become a serious contender in the race and not just a member of the pack. I don't expect Hye-ja to really factor in the race as LA always throws out some seriously obscure picks in acting races that never factor beyond the day that LA announces its awards. Think Vera Farmiga in 2005 for Down to the Bone and last years winner Yolande Moreau for Seraphine. Again LA goes obscure for Niels Arestrup for a film that was nominated in last year's foreign film race and is ineligible this year. Jacki Weaver picks up her second major award (she won NBoR) last week and cements herself as a definite contender in that race.

New York:

Best Film:
The Social Network

Best Director:
David Fincher, The Social Network

Best Screenplay:
The Kids Are All Right

Best Actress:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

Best Actor:
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech

Best Supporting Actress:
Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Best Supporting Actor:
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

New York also goes for The Social Network and seems to have shown a lot of love to The Kids Are All Right. Colin Firth picks up his second major win and solidifies himself as the definitive man to beat in the Best Actor category. I am very surprised to see Natalie Portman lose this particular award to Annette Bening. Black Swan is so New York and I thought that the critics would recognize the city where this amazing performances takes place. Last week I kept saying "No one will beat Natalie." While I still believe this, I think the category is a little tighter than I would have thought. Ruffalo is definitely picking up a nod for his work in TKAAR, despite my thoughts that he might get edged out of the top five. And fantastic character actress Melissa Leo takes her first big award for The Fighter. I think this might actually make her the front runner.

Also today The BFCA nominations came out:

BEST PICTURE
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone

BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges – “True Grit”
Robert Duvall – “Get Low”
Jesse Eisenberg – “The Social Network”
Colin Firth – “The King’s Speech”
James Franco – “127 Hours”
Ryan Gosling – “Blue Valentine”

BEST ACTRESS
Annette Bening – “The Kids Are All Right”
Nicole Kidman – “Rabbit Hole”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Winter’s Bone”
Natalie Portman – “Black Swan”
Noomi Rapace – “The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo”
Michelle Williams – “Blue Valentine”


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – “The Fighter”
Andrew Garfield – “The Social Network”
Jeremy Renner – “The Town”
Sam Rockwell – “Conviction”
Mark Ruffalo – “The Kids Are All Right”
Geoffrey Rush – “The King’s Speech”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams – “The Fighter”
Helena Bonham Carter – “The King’s Speech”
Mila Kunis – “Black Swan”
Melissa Leo – “The Fighter”
Hailee Steinfeld – “True Grit”
Jacki Weaver – “Animal Kingdom”

I think most of these lineups will match most of the Oscar line ups. Black Swan leading the nomination list is a very good thing as most of the buzz seemed to be about Natalie and not the film up to this point. The Social Network, The King's Speech, The Kid's Are All Right, The Fighter and True Grit are also well represented here. It seems as though buzz for Another Year and Lesley Manville is slowly dying. It's also definite that Sally Hawkins or Miranda Richardson will not factor in this year's race for Made in Dagenham. I would have seen some love for John Hawkes and Dale Dickey here, but perhaps SAG will make up for it. I have to say also that the most inspired nomination here is Noomi Rapace, who was excellent in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. This is probably where her mild Oscar buzz will die, but it's nice when a group like the BFC rewards excellent work that deserves to be rewarded.

Golden Globes tomorrow will solve a lot of mysteries in this race. Can't wait.

And we're off!

National Board of Review named their top movies of the year yesterday and The Social Network really cleaned up. Here are there awards recipients:

Best Film: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Best Actress: Lesley Manville, Another Year
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men
Best Documentary: Waiting for “Superman”
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Ensemble Cast: The Town
Breakthrough Performance: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Debut Directors: Sebastian Junger and Tim Hetherington, Restrepo
Spotlight Award: Sylvain Chomet and Jacques Tati, The Illusionist
Best Original Screenplay: Chris Sparling, Buried
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Special Filmmaking Achievement Award: Sofia Coppola for writing, directing, and producing Somewhere
William K. Everson Film History Award: Leonard Maltin


Top Eleven Films (In alphabetical order): Another Year, The Fighter, Hereafter, Inception, The King’s Speech, Shutter Island, The Social Network, The Town, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone


Obviously The Social Network is now out in front in terms of Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay. However the biggest surprise here is the victory of Jesse Eisenberg, who many were considering an outside shot at getting into the Best Actor category. Now he is a definitive contender possibly bumping Ryan Gosling out of the top 5. I think Christian Bale's win cements him as the front runner. Lesley Manville and Jacki Weaver needed these wins to really factor into their respective races and now they are forces to be reckoned with.

It's very interesting to see a lack of love for Black Swan and 127 Hours here. Black Swan's buzz right now is pretty deafening and Hereafter and Shutter Island over 127 Hours, sure whatever you say NBoR! I am also starting to believe that The Town has a definite outside shot at getting into the Best Pic race.
I am about 5 hours away from seeing Black Swan and the excitement is overwhelming. Ballet sexual thriller starring Natalie Portman, Winona Ryder, and Barbara Hershey. This is going to be fun.

Independent Spirit Award Nominations Reaction.

The phenomenal Winter's Bone led the Indie Spirit noms yesterday with 7 nominations, while The Kids Are All Right followed with 5 and Black Swan had 4. This is great news for the absolutely brilliant drama Winter's Bone and will significantly improve its chances to making the top ten Best Picture list.

However there were some major and surprising snubs. Rabbit Hole nominated for Best Actor, Actress and Director but left out of the picture race. Blue Valentine given no love except for Michelle Williams (where's Gosling?) Julianne Moore completely shut out of Best Actress even when they expanded the category to nominate 6 actresses. Robert Duvall left out of Best Actor and costar Sissy Spacek left out of Best Supporting Actress. Diane Wiest and both Black Swan supporting Actresses (Barbara Hershey & Mila Kunis) left out of Best Supporting Actress.

All in all, I think the nominations are great! I am thrilled to see love for the supporting players of Winter's Bone, John Hawkes and Dale Dickey. Both are superb character actors and did spectacular, authentic work in the film. It was also nice to see some love for Naomi Watts and Samuel L. Jackson for Mother & Child, an extremely overlooked film I had the fortune to see at 2009's TIFF. It should have been Annette Bening's buzz worthy performance this year, however instead everyone is on The Kids Are All Right's bandwagon.

Anyways, happy for lots of Winter's Bone love and I sincerely hope that continues.

Next up National Board of Review tomorrow.