SAG Predictions

So I am currently watching the SAGs and I know that it's odd to write a blog where I predict the award winners as the ceremony is going on but here goes:

Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet (she's already won, but I would have predicted that)
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger
Best Actress: Meryl Streep
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke
Best Cast: Doubt

Oscar's Biggest Snubs 2008 Edition

I am actually amazed by fellow Oscar bloggers and fans about how disappointed they are in the nominations. I don't think they are the best set of nominations, but I also don't think they are the worst.

The Academy made some inspired choices in Michael Shannon, Richard Jenkins, Melissa Leo, Courtney Hunt's screenplay, and nominated M.I.A. for Best Song.

However, they really missed the Batman boat. I thought The Dark Knight was an excellent film. They also should have nominated Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road, which I think is the much better performance. Granted she's still brilliant in The Reader. However, the day's biggest snub is not to nominate Sally Hawkins. In my opinion it's like leaving out Mickey Rourke or Sean Penn from the Best Actor category. She was one of the year's most interesting and realized performances, which just proves that Oscar rarely gets it right.

And where the hell is the love for Springsteen?

Here are the major snubs in photo form in case you're a visual learner:

Nom Reactions

Holy fuck. I am spent. It is only 10am and already I am exhausted.

The nominations for the 81st Oscars were announced today and here are the nominees and my general reactions:

Best PictureMilk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon

Reactions: If seems as though the Academy and Batman are on the outs. The Dark Knight's snub was very surprising to me as was the inclusion of The Reader. Slumdog wins no hands down.

Best DirectorGus Van Sant - Milk
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry - The Reader

Reactions: I am shocked to see Chris Nolan left out in this category. I have to say I had a hunch Stephen Daldry would get in for Best Director. His first two films saw him nominated. Now he's a perfect 3 for 3. Boyle for the win.

Best ActorBrad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
Sean Penn - Milk
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor

Reactions: No CLINT EASTWOOD??? I guess the academy prefers ole Clint as a director and not as an actor. This was a huge surprise. It seems as though (and I stole this from my friend Dan's facebook status) that Eastwood will be grunting and giving the finger gun to the Academy all day. Now this becomes a two man race and the most interesting race of all. Rourke vs. Penn. The Ram vs. Harvey Milk. Bring it on.

Best Actress
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Reactions: WTF????????? I never expected Kate Winslet for The Reader. I mean I know the Academy has a history of putting people in the categories as they see fit but as my good Oscar buddy Andrew said "I can't see how Winslet got more leading nominations for The Reader than she did Supporting for the same film and leading for Revolutionary Road." I don't know how that scenario played out but kudos to her. It becomes clear that she now owns this category. It's hers to lose. I am so sad about Sally Hawkins' snub. Hawkins is the actress, while it's clear that Hathaway and Jolie are the Oscar baiting movie stars. Winslet will live up to the first three letters of her last name.

Best Supporting ActorMichael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Josh Brolin - Milk

Reactions: Pretty much played out as I expected. I feel bad for Dev Patel, but Michael Shannon truly deserved his spot. Give Ledger his Oscar already.

Best Supporting ActressAmy Adams - Doubt
Viola Davis - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Teraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler

Reactions: No Kate Winslet for The Reader makes this category less interesting for sure. I am happy to see Amy Adams get career nom number 2. Are you ready for Academy Award winner Penelope Cruz because in six weeks that's what she will be. Although there is an outside shot that Viola Davis could win, but it's not likely.

Okay I have to go and shave because I am appearing on Toronto's local station to talk Oscars and I look like Grizzly Adams.

SHE WAS ROBBED!

As if Sally Hawkins was snubbed. She doesn't get nominated but Angelina and Anne Hathaway do. Bull shit. But as my good Oscar buddy Andrew said "Poppy would just smile through it."

Sneaky little buggers

There are always surprises on nomination day. I remember gasping out loud like the bitch that I am when Keisha Castle Hughes bumped Nicole Kidman and Jennifer Connelly out of the Best Actress category in 2003. Especially since Hughes hadn’t even been campaigned in the Best Actress category. I also remember being shocked when Dreamgirls was left out in the cold in 2006. I am sure I dramatically broke into And I am Telling You and knelt in front of my Jennifer Hudson shrine screaming WHY!?!?!?

These are who I think could sneak into the pretty solid top five of each category:

Best Picture – I predicted Wall-e would sneak in over the more predicted Frost/Nixon. However The Reader also has an outside shot.

Best Director – The 5 DGA nominees look solid, but I think that Darren Aronofsky has a chance.

Best Actor- If anyone bumps out one of the iron strong top 5 for Best Actor it will be Richard Jenkins.

Best Actress –
I still can’t believe Angelina will bump out Melissa Leo or Kristin Scott Thomas. But for some reason if Angelina or worse Sally Hawkins are bumped out, it will be in favor of Melissa Leo.

Best Supporting Actor –
This category is pretty much solidified, but Eddie Marsan could spoil if Oscar voters go crazy for Happy Go Lucky.

Best Supporting Actress –The obvious choice for spoiler in this category is Globe and SAG nominee Amy Adams, however I will go out on a line and say that Rosemarie Dewitt gets in for Rachel Getting Married.

We’re 15 hours away. I wonder if I’ll have trouble sleeping tonight.

Official Oscar Predictions

Okay here goes! It seems as though almost all Oscar experts are predicting the same five movies and performances in the main categories. So for my predictions should I play safe or go for broke and predict shockers in each category? Well I will play it safe with most categories (because I can't really see them playing out in any other way) and go for broke by saying WALL E gets into Best Picture. Sound the horns and without further ado here are my official 2008 Oscar Nomination predictions:
Best Picture
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
The Dark Knight
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
WALL E
Best Director
Gus Van Sant – Milk
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benajmin Button
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
Chris Nolan – The Dark Knight
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Best Actor
Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Sean Penn – Milk
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Best Actress
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Sally Hawkins – Happy Go Lucky
Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Josh Brolin – Milk
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Dev Patel – Slumdog Millionaire
Best Supporting Actress
Taraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Viola Davis – Doubt
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Best Original Screenplay
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
WALL E
Happy Go Lucky
The Wrestler
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
The Reader

What a wonderful week!

I haven't been blogging lately and for the thousands of readers of this blog or maybe the one or two that happen to accidentally stumble upon it in their search for a lonely singles discussion group, well from me to you, I am sorry.

There has simply been too much going on lately. Lots of Canadian figure skating championships to watch. Lots of vintage episodes for Roseanne to be enjoyed. And that little thing called a job that gets in the way of blogging as well.

However, today I am inspired because Barack Obama became the 44th president of the United States today and it's the most hopeful I've felt in a long time. It's the defining moment of our generation and I do have to say it was nice to see George W. Bush flying off in a helicopter to spend the next few decades simply awaiting his death.

This is a big week for general enthusiast Michael Yerxa. The Australian Open began yesterday and I do hope that this is the Grand Slam tournament that Elena Dementieva can finally win. The Inauguration of Obama was today. Tomorrow, the 5th season of Lost begins. This weekend is the United States Figure Skating Championship and my annual SHE FALLS, YOU DRINK skating celebration party.

THURSDAY however is my Christmas morning as the Oscar nominations are released.I have stayed home every Oscar nom morning since grade 7 to watch the announcements live and I look forward to this year's ceremony with baited breath.

I am going to post final predictions tomorrow. However I must say that I am feeling that this year's potential nominees are proving to be very predictable. It seems as though all Oscar prognosticators are predicting the same in every major category. The BAFTAs nominations were announced last Thursday and nothing major cam out of them minus a Sally Hawkins snub and a lot of love for Slumdog, Benjamin Button and Kate Winslet.

With my nomination predictions, I am tempted to mix it up and go out on a limb in certain categories. Who will be this year's Tommy Lee Jones or Keisha Castle Hughes or who will be snubbed ala Dreamgirls or Cold Mountain? There has to be surprises and I hope for some WTF moments on Thursday morning! Final noms tomorrow.

What I loved about the Golden Globes

In her speech, Tina Fey made fun of people who post on The Envelope forums, which I have faithfully belonged to since 2002. Dianefan can suck it. Anyone who doesn’t get Tina Fey is a degenerate asshole.Tracy Morgan accepting the Best comedy award and stating that he is the face of post-racial America. Deal with it, Cate Blanchett! He probably got very confused and meant Kate Winslet because Cate Blanchett wasn’t even there. He also confirmed that he doesn’t act on 30 Rock. Whether he is Morgan or Jordan, he is just himself. Kate Winslet never wins anything and then she won two awards in one night. However I would have argued that she should have received a third award for BEST AWARD CEREMONY MOMENT EVER. She gets on stage and says the following: “I’m so sorry. Anne, Meryl, Kristin and oh god who’s the other one? …. Angelina.” I love that “the other one” happens to be the most famous female celebrity in the world. Angelina “Mother fucking” Jolie. Somewhere Jennifer Aniston is doing a touchdown-like celebration dance.While I don’t care for Mickey Rourke face, I do care for his win in the Best Actor category. I also care for the fact that he thanked his dog and he didn’t thank the Hollywood foreign press. In 2009, it is my New Years resolution to be nicer in general. Being a bitch is so 08! It was nice to see Rumer Willis finally get her due as Miss Golden Globe. It was also nice to see her look like a human for once and not a chin with legs.

Kate WINS - lot!

Okay that was the best Golden Globes I can remember because it's nice to see a lot of deserving people win. I am also very happy because prediction wise I did quite well especially in the TV categories, in which I am usually way off the mark.

I was anxiously awaiting The Globes because I felt that after tonight we'd finally have a sense of where The Best Actress category was going. That did not happen because Kate Winslet won two Golden Globes right out of Penelope and Anne Hathaway's hands. So now in which category do Oscar voters reward her? HFPA why'd you have to go a make things so complicated! SAGS couldn't come fast enough.

Reactions (in the order that the awards were presented):

Best Picture - Drama: “Slumdog Millionaire”

We officially have our Best Picture Oscar winner.


Best Actor in a Drama: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Yes, yes, yes!!! The performance of the year finally gets rewarded. I had a feeling the HFPA would not reward Sean Penn after all his snubs. The SAGs should be very interesting.


Best Drama Series: “Mad Men”

Obviously!


Best Actress in a Drama: Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”

The Anne Hathaway leaked win on the website proved to be absolutely nothing. It's nice to see Winslet finally be a bride. P.S. Bride Wars is a terrible film.


Best Picture - Musical/Comedy: “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

YAWN. Crappy year for comedies so it's no shock an absolutely mediocre film wins.


Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy: Colin Farrell, “In Bruges”

So that happened...


Best Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Totally deserved. His fate is sealed.


Best Actress in a Comedy Series: Tina Fey, “30 Rock”

The woman is brilliant and I am using the internet to personally tell her that!


Best Comedy Series: “30 Rock”

Okay I am so worried that major 30 Rock back lash is on its way.


Best Actor in a Miniseries or TV Movie: Paul Giamatti, “John Adams”

Duh!


Best Actor in Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock”

Mr. Baldwin is becoming a thoughtless little award hogging pig.


Best Screenplay: Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”

When it rains, it pours!


Best Actress in a TV Movie or Miniseries: Laura Linney, “John Adams”

Duh x 2!


Best Foreign Language Film: “Waltz With Bashir”

I should see this film. But I probably won't!


Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

Even though the HFPA didn't love The Dark Knight, they couldn't not give it to him.


Best TV Movie or Miniseries: “John Adams”

People really liked this.


Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

So happy and so deserved! I am praying she gets into the top 5 for Best Actress. I do think she has an outside shot at winning.


Best Animated Feature: “WALL-E”

Can you imagine if Bolt had actually won!


Best Actress in a Drama Series (TV): Anna Paquin, “True Blood”

As I said, if it's new and good and on TV chances are it will win a Golden Globe. That's why Paquin won.


Best Actor in a Drama Series (TV): Gabriel Byrne, “In Treatment”

I figured Jon Hamm would win Best Actor and In Treatment would win Best Series. Mad Men and In Treatment were going to be rewarded and it could have gone either way. Wish it had gone the other so I would have had 100% perfect TV predictions!


Best Supporting Actress (TV): Laura Dern, “Recount”

This is in my top five performances of the year. It's beyond belief how astonishing Laura Dern is and what a cunt Katherine Harris was.


Best Supporting Actor (TV): Tom Wilkinson, “John Adams”

It's not such a bad time to be Mr. Wilkinson career wise eh?


Best Original Song: “The Wrestler” from “The Wrestler”

Oscar will be calling.


Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

AMAZING!!!! She is stunning in this and very deserving but I must say that I am shocked that Penny Cruz didn't win. So now the question is which category does she win in, lead, supporting, both or neither? Let the head scratching begin.

Golden Globe Film Predictions

I am at a complete loss as to who will win these awards this year. Usually I am good a predicting these things, but things are about as clear for me as they were for Julie Christie in Away from Her. However here are a few feelings I thought I would share:

1. The comedy categories suck a lot this year!

2. Mamma Mia can't really win Best Picture! This is not the People's Choice awards or even the Mom Jeans film festival. Clout goes out the window for HFPA if Mammia Mia becomes the winner who takes it all!

3. I have a feeling Kate Winslet will lose twice. I also have a feeling that Meryl Streep will lose twice. It might actually be easier to have two two category losers than one.

4. I have a feeling Sean Penn can't lose for MILK. But he's snubbed the Globes before and if I invited someone to my party and they didn't show up I'd be less inclined to pick up their bar tab next time we were out. Does that make sense? Maybe they'll go for Rourke or even Frank Langella.

5. I am wondering who will accept for Heath Ledger.

Anyihopekatewinsletwins, here are my predictions:

Best Picture Drama – Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director – Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire

Best Picture Comedy – Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Actor Drama – Sean Penn in Milk

Best Actor Comedy – Dustin Hoffman in Last Chance Harvey

Best Actress Drama – Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married

Best Actress Comedy – Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky

Best Supporting Actor – Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress – Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Best Foreign Language Film – Waltz with Bashir

Best Animated Film – WALL E

Best Screenplay – Slumdog Millionaire

Best Original Score – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Original Song – “The Wrestler” from The Wrestler

Golden Globe TV Predictions

The Golden Globes are usually whores for whatever is new. They went gaga over Party of Five as Best Drama for damn sake in 1995. If it’s good and in its first season, it usually wins.

However, this year, because of the lack of new great shows, they may be forced to give their awards to shows in their 2nd -5th seasons that are actually the best.

Here are my predictions (I am usually always off the money in terms of TV predictions but here goes):

Best Drama – In Treatment

Best Comedy – 30 Rock

Best Miniseries or Movie – John Adams

Best Actor – Drama – Jon Hamm for Mad Men

Best Actor – Comedy - Alec Baldwin for 30 Rock

Best Actor – Movie/Miniseries – Paul Giamatti – John Adams

Best Actress – Drama – Anna Paquin – True Blood

Best Actress – Comedy – Tina Fey – 30 Rock

Best Actress – Movie/Miniseries – Laura Linney – John Adams

Best Supporting Actor – Tom Wilkinson – John Adams

Best Supporting Actress – Laura Dern - Recount

It's a TIE!!!!!

Broadcast Film Critics Awards were last night and we saw some interesting developments. Here were the winners:

Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire

Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Best Actor: Sean Penn, Milk

Best Actress: tie!!
Meryl Streep, Doubt; Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Best Supporting Actress: Kate Winslet, The Reader

I must first say I am not surprised by Slumdog , Penn or Ledger’s wins. They were to be expected and I think they are unstoppable at this point. I am sad that Mickey Rourke won’t be facebreaker knee smashing his way to Oscar glory, but if he’s to lose I’m more than fine having it be to Sean Penn.

The Best Actress and Supporting Actress races have gotten infinitely more interesting. Earlier this week I called Kate Winslet and Penelope Cruz for wins. But now the BFCA have thrown a curve ball. The tie in Best Actress shocks me and whoever wins the Globe on Sunday night will officially become the frontrunner. I really did think that Penny Cruz was unbeatable in Supporting Actress but now it seems as though it may be the place to reward Kate Winslet this year. Mark my words, she will be nominated in both categories and cannot and will not lose both.

Kate Winslet will win an Oscar this year. The acting winners this year will be Penn, Ledger, and Winslet. Will the other winner be Hathaway or Cruz? I anxiously await the Globes to shed more light. Is it just me or is there something about Academy Award Winner Anne Hathaway that just doesn’t sound right?

And that's the five ladies and germs

So what five pics will be nominated for Best Picture you ask?

Well after yesterday Writer's Guild nominations and today's director guild nominations. I would bet a lot of money and perhaps a kidney on the fact that the nominees will be as followed:


The Wrestler had an outside shot to be nominated for Best Picture but it would have needed a DGA nom for Darren Aronofsky.

Doubt looked early like it could be an all around achievement, but now it appears to be an actor's showcase.

Kate Winslet seems to be the only place where The Reader and Revolutionary Road will score major kudos.

And what about WALL E??? Well I can still pray to the movie gods for a WALL E Best picture nom can't I? I seriously think it's the strongest candidate to spoil the five top ranked derby horses at this point. Fingers crossed.