OSCAR/RACE

I have never in my decade of being an Oscar enthusiast/fanatic ever seen an Oscar race like this one. The acting categories are jam packed with contenders. There are very few viable frontrunners. The precursor awards have only made things more confusing than less. It seems as though The Golden Globes shunned actors who were nominated for The Broadcast Film Critics Association Awards (Eastwood, Blanchett, Brolin, Franco, Leo and Jenkins) in order to give those performance who weren’t nominated an extra boost (Hawkins, DiCaprio, Winslet, Adams)

Revolutionary Road has been the biggest mystery in December thus far. It has been missing from all lists and then made a huge splash at the Globes yesterday. Can it recover hastily from a lack of early buzz?

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button seems to be the real deal. However, it seems as though its three acting contenders are incredibly vulnerable to be pushed out of their respective categories.

The Golden Globes didn’t feel the love for Milk, which earlier this week seems to be the strongest potential to take on Slumdog for Best Picture. I don't think this will affect it in the long run, but it certainly doesn't make it easier to win Best Picture.

These are how I see the races as of right now. I have only included the remaining films or performances that I think will legitimately factor in the race.

Best Picture

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
3. Revolutionary Road
4. Milk
5. The Dark Knight
6. Frost/Nixon
7. The Reader
8. WALL E


Best Actor

1. Sean Penn – Milk
2. Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
3. Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
4. Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
5. Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
6. Brad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin
7. Richard Jenkins – The Visitor

Best Actress

1. Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
2. Meryl Streep – Doubt
3. Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
4. Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
5. Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
6. Melissa Leo – Frozen River
7. Cate Blanchett – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
8. Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Best Supporting Actor

1. Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
2. Josh Brolin – Milk
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
4. Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
5. James Franco – Milk
6. Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
7. Dev Pattel – Slumdog Millionaire
8. Ralph Fiennes – The Reader

Best Supporting Actress

1. Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
2. Viola Davis – Doubt
3. Kate Winslet – The Reader
4. Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
5. Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married
6. Teraji P. Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
7. Amy Adams – Doubt
8. Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married

It's a lovely day for some Globe noms!

Good morning Golden Globes! I was up early this morning to see the Oscar race take major shape with the Globe noms. Overall, I am happy and I think they made some nice calls. I am also pleasantly surprised to see their lack of nominating celebrities over performances.

Best Picture (Drama)
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Frost/Nixon”
“The Reader”
“Revolutionary Road”
“Slumdog Millionaire”

Reactions: Milk is left out. I am very surprised to see this happen. But this won’t matter in the scheme of things because SAG will nominate it and it won in NYC. The Dark Knight was also left out, but this isn't a major snag in their campaign as well. Interesting to see The Reader and especially Revolutionary Road finally get some attention.

Best Picture (Comedy/Musical)
“Burn After Reading”
“Happy-Go-Lucky”
“In Bruges”
“Mamma Mia!”
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

Reactions: A horrible year for musicals or comedies. Mamma Mia might even win! Can you imagine that?

Best Actor (Drama)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”
Frank Langella, “Frost/Nixon”
Sean Penn, “Milk”
Brad Pitt, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Micky Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Reactions: There are 6 major contenders for Best Actor, so one was going to be pushed out. I have to say I am not surprised to see Clint get bumped out. This will not happen at Oscar time. I did think they would bump Pitt out of this category and place him in Comedy Actor for Burn After Reading. Pitt is the most likely to not make the cut for Oscar’s top 5. Now will Rourke or Penn win?

Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Javier Bardem, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Colin Farrell, “In Bruges”
James Franco, “Pineapple Express”
Brendan Gleeson, “In Bruges”
Dustin Hoffman, “Last Chance Harvey”

Reactions: I literally have no clue who will win here. Interesting to see that Franco is given a consolation nomination for the lack of his MILK nomination. This category really sucks and I am shocked that they didn’t nominate Clooney for Burn After Reading.

Best Actress (Drama)
Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Angelina Jolie, “Changeling”
Meryl Streep, “Doubt”
Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
Kate Winslet, “Revolutionary Road”

Reactions: I am sad to see that Melissa Leo missing from this list. Kristin Scott Thomas was in dire need of this or she would have been done. Not surprised to see Angelina here. I mean who wouldn’t want BRANGELINA on their red carpet? I am surprised that Cate Blanchett is missing from this list. She may end up out of the Oscar category in favor of Scott Thomas or Hawkins. However, the most important question is; who wins this? I say Winslet, with Hathaway hot on her heels.

Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)
Rebecca Hall, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Frances McDormand, “Burn After Reading”
Meryl Streep, “Mamma Mia!”
Emma Thompson, “Last Chance Harvey”

Reactions: This is where I am very impressed with the HFPA because they made inspired choices such as Hall and Thompson over Scarlett Johansson and Sarah Jessica Parker in SUCKS and the City. Hawkins will very deservedly win.

Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise, “Tropic Thunder”
Robert Downey Jr., “Tropic Thunder”
Ralph Fiennes, “The Duchess”
Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Doubt”
Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”

Reactions: I gasped out loud when Tom Cruise was nominated. I seriously could not believe that. Surprised that Fiennes is nommed for The Duchess and not The Reader. There was no love for Milk here, but Josh Brolin need not worry. It should be noted that RDJr. is now a real contender as well.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Doubt”
Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Marisa Tomei, “The Wrestler”
Kate Winslet, “The Reader”

Reactions: Nice to see Amy Adams finally getting noticed for Doubt. Marisa Tomei needed this extra boost in her Oscar step. I was expecting the Rachel Getting Married ladies to get in here, but maybe they will ultimately cancel themselves out. Cruz will win this in a… how do you say cake walk in Spanish?

Best Director
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Stephen Daldry, “The Reader”
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Sam Mendes, “Revolutionary Road”

Reactions: I suspect two or maybe three of these gentlemen to make Oscar’s final cut. I expect that Fincher or Boyle will win.

Golden Globe Nomination Predictions

Here are my predictions. The Comedy categories suck. Also the HFPA are whores for celebrities. There are always wild cards. 9 hours away.

Best Picture- Drama

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Milk
Revolutionary Road
The Dark Knight

Best Picture – Comedy

Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Mamma Mia!
Burn After Reading
Tropic Thunder

Best Actor – Drama

Sean Penn – Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino

Best Actor – Comedy
Javier Bardem – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Ricky Gervais – Ghost Town
George Clooney – Burn After Reading
Brad Pitt – Burn After Reading
Dustin Hoffman – Last Chance Harvey

Best Actress – Drama

Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Cate Blanchett – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Angelina Jolie – Changeling

Best Actress – Comedy

Meryl Streep – Mamma Mia!
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Sarah Jessica Parker – Sex and The City
Tina Fey – Baby Mama
Emma Thompson – Last Chance Harvey

Best Supporting Actor

Josh Brolin – Milk
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
James Franco – Milk
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Rosemarie DeWitt – Rachel Getting Married

MILK does the NY Critics Good!

A day after LA weighs in and a day before the Golden Globes noms are announced, NY announced their years best of the best and here are the winners:

Best Picture: “Milk”

Best Director: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Best Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”

Best Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Best Supporting Actor: Josh Brolin, “Milk”

Best Supporting Actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”

Best Screenplay: Jenny Lumet, “Rachel Getting Married”

Best Animated Film: “WALL-E”

Best Documentary: “Man on Wire”

Best Foreign Film: “4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days”

Best First Film: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”

Best Cinematographer: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”


So what do we take away from the New York Film Critics Circle? I think this puts Sean Penn and Penelope Cruz safely in the front runner positions. On Monday of this week, I would not have put Sally Hawkins in my top five Actress projections. However now, she is the potential front runner for Best Actress. I am so surprised that Josh Brolin took the award from Heath Ledger, but I suppose stranger things have happened.

I did think that Mickey Rourke and Kristin Scott Thomas would pull of a win in either LA or NY. Scott Thomas may be on her way out of the tight Best Actress race, while a precursor less Rourke (who in my opinion delivers the performance of the year) may not ultimately have what it takes to body slam Oscar faves Penn and Eastwood come Oscar night.

It was also particularly interesting to see the notable runner ups. Rachel Getting Married, Slumdog, and Happy Go Lucky as Best Picture. Rourke and Eastwood as Best Actor. Melissa Leo (who is very much still alive in this race), Anne Hathaway, and KATE WINSLET (and the first sign of affection for Revolutionary Road). Downey Jr., Ledger, and Eddie Marsan in Best Supporting Actor. And Viola Davis (who has surprisingly not won a precursor yet), Debra Winger, and Rosemarie DeWitt for Best Supporting Actress.

Things will become a lot clearer tomorrow when the Globe nominations are announced. Nomination predictions are on their way.

The Little Robot that Could

L.A. Film Critics Awards:

Picture: “Wall-E”
Runner-up: “The Dark Knight”

Director: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Actor: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Runner-up: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”

Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Runner-up: Melissa Leo, “Frozen River”

Supporting actor: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Runner-up: Eddie Marsan, “Happy-Go-Lucky”

Supporting actress: Penelope Cruz, “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and “Elegy”
Runner-up: Viola Davis, “Doubt”

Screenplay: Mike Leigh, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Runner-up: Charlie Kaufman, “Synecdoche, New York”

Foreign-language film: “Still Life”
Runner-up: “The Class”

Documentary: “Man on Wire”
Runner-up: “Waltz With Bashir”

Animation: “Waltz With Bashir”

Cinematography: Yu Lik Wai, “Still Life”
Runner-up: Anthony Dod Mantle, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Production design: Mark Friedberg, “Synecdoche, New York”
Runner-up: Nathan Crowley, “The Dark Knight”

Music/score: A.R. Rahman, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

New Generation: Steve McQueen, “Hunger”

Okay so I was so tough on The National BORE of Review because their selections were, you know, boring as hell. The LA Film Critics, on the other hand, released their nominations today and they were an absolute thrill, with shock of all shocks, WALL E winning Best Picture and The Dark Knight being declared the runner up. I am thrilled for three of the four VERY deserving acting winners (Penn, Hawkins, Ledger). The Best Actress race, which once looked like a race between Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep, now seems completely up in the air. I love the choice of Hawkins, in a truly outstanding performance. And I love Melissa Leo as the runner up because she needs this attention.I commend LA for picking award winners who are very deserving and who needed that extra push to get them into their respective categories' top five.

The Road Less Travelled

While we wait for LA to announce their awards, earlier today The Critics Choice Nominees were announced. There was lots of love for Harvey Milk, Batman, and Benjamin Button, but no love for Frank and April Wheeler (Leo and Kate) of Revolutionary Road. I find this very confusing because I really did think that Rev Road would be a major factor in this race and so far it's been M.I.A. from this list and National Board of Review. It needs some serious help. Here's the list:

BEST PICTURE
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Reactions: No Revolutionary Road. Happy to see Gran Torino missing as well.

MORE

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood - Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler

Reactions: No major surprises, but did expect Leo to be a factor.

BEST ACTRESS

Kate Beckinsale - Nothing But the Truth
Cate Blanchett - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt

Reactions: So sad to see Sally Hawkins not included. And where is Kristin Scott Thomas? And was the inclusion of Angelina "Give Me My Son/Oscar" Jolie necessary?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
James Franco - Milk

Reactions: This is turning out to be a pretty weak category this year. I suspect Michael Shannon to ultimately factor in this category. Perhaps Dev Patel as well. But put a fork in this category, because it's done.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Vera Farmiga - Nothing But the Truth
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
Kate Winslet - The Reader

Reactions: Sad to see the lack of Rosemarie DeWitt and Debra Winger. I still expect one of them to get in and to bump out Tomei, while Farmiga will not factor. Please vote Kate over Penny!

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Milk
Rachel Getting Married

Reactions: Great choices.

BEST DIRECTOR
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan - The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant - Milk

Reactions: I am not feeling Ron Howard, but otherwise thumbs up.

National BORE of Review

National Board of Review announced their awards yesterday and they were a major yawn. All they did was seemingly look at a list of this year's potential Oscar nominees and play a rousing game of eenie meenie miny moe. Here's what won:

• Best Film: SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE
• Best Director: DAVID FINCHER, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Best Actor: CLINT EASTWOOD, Gran Torino
• Best Actress: ANNE HATHAWAY, Rachel Getting Married
• Best Supporting Actor: JOSH BROLIN, Milk
• Best Supporting Actress: PENELOPE CRUZ, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
• Best Foreign Language Film: MONGOL
• Best Documentary: MAN ON WIRE
• Best Animated Feature: WALL-E
• Best Ensemble Cast: DOUBT

• Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: DEV PATEL, Slumdog Millionaire
• Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: VIOLA DAVIS, Doubt
• Best Directorial Debut: COURTNEY HUNT, Frozen River
• Best Original Screenplay: NICK SCHENK, Gran Torino
• Best Adapted Screenplay: SIMON BEAUFOY, Slumdog Millionaire and
ERIC ROTH, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
• Spotlight Award: MELISSA LEO, Frozen River and
RICHARD JENKINS, The Visitor
• The BVLGARI Award for NBR Freedom of Expression: TRUMBO

• Top Ten Films:
(In alphabetical order)
BURN AFTER READING
CHANGELING
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
THE DARK KNIGHT
DEFIANCE
FROST/NIXON
GRAN TORINO
MILK
WALL-E
THE WRESTLER

I would have really liked a left field win like Melissa Leo or Michael Shannon. I totally disagree with all four of their acting winners. Anne Hathaway is lovely. She's beautiful and talented. However, she is meant for romantic comedies and popcorn flicks. An actress she is not! Obviously NBR loves Clint. I haven't seen Gran Torino, and maybe this is unfair, but I can't imagine it being more than an extended two hour "Go Ahead Make My Day." He'll be grumpy, his voice will be gravelly, and his eyebrows will be furrowed. Will it be dynamic? Probably. Will it be something we haven't seen before? No. Josh Brolin is a great actor, but Best Supporting Actor over Heath? No way. Not even questionable. And it must be really difficult for Penelope Cruz to play a sexy, passionate and dramatic spaniard. She's fiery and unstable, but a role like this isn't all that subtle or subdued.

Also what is up with Viola Davis, who's been acting for years, being awarded Best Breakthrough Performance? And what is up with Top Ten inclusions of Defiance, Changeling, and Burn After Reading over Revolutionary Road or Doubt?

LA and NYC awards are next week. Fingers crossed that our East and West coast friends will have some more inspired choices.

Adele does well!

The Grammy’s announced their nominations last night. The Grammy’s make virtually no sense to me. How did River: The Joni Letters win Album of the year last year? Or how did Milli Vanilli win Best New Artist once upon a lip synch? And how the hell did Christopher Cross (who the hell is he?) beat The Wall by Pink Floyd for Album of the Year in 1980?

This year The Grammy’s made some inspiring choices and some less than inspiring choices. However, I am elated because Adele made it into three of the four main categories.


Well here are this year’s nominees and my general reactions.

Album Of The Year
Viva La Vida (Coldplay)
Tha Carter III (Lil Wayne)
Year Of The Gentleman (Ne-Yo)
Raising Sand (Robert Plant & Alison Krauss)
In Rainbows (Radiohead)

Reactions: Happy to see Radiohead in the mix. Lil Wayne leads with nominations but I imagine Robert Plant & Alison Krauss will win. Album of the year seems like a lifetime achievement award as of late.

Record Of The Year
"Chasing Pavements" (Adele)
"Viva La Vida" (Coldplay)
"Bleeding Love" (Leona Lewis)
"Paper Planes" (M.I.A.)
"Please Read The Letter" (Robert Plant & Alison Krauss)

Reactions: I love the nomination for M.I.A. and it will probably completely ruin her street cred. Adele is a surprise, but again elation from me! I would have expected I Kissed a Girl, or Mercy before Chasing Pavements. Coldplay will probably win, but I wouldn’t count out Bleeding love. I keep bleeding, keep, keep bleeding…

Song Of The Year
"American Boy" (Estelle f/ Kanye West)
"Chasing Pavements" (Adele)
"I'm Yours" (Jason Mraz)
"Love Song" (Sara Bareilles)
"Viva La Vida" (Coldplay)

Reactions: YAWN! Except for Adele natch. Who the hell is Sara Bareilles?

Best New Artist
Adele
Duffy
Jonas Brothers
Lady Antebellum
Jazmine Sullivan

Reactions: The big shocker here is no LEONA LEWIS. Clive Davis is probably throwing Grammy’s around his office this morning in a fit of rage. Now it looks as though Adele might actually win this award. Well guess who has two thumbs and thinks that would just be fine… (points towards self) this guy.

Huzzah!

The Race Begins 2008

I haven’t yet purchased my Christmas advent calendar. Not because I don’t love the little chocolates inside. Trust me, Michael Agustus Gloop Yerxa definitely does! I have yet to purchase my calendar because I don’t really care about Christmas. I should let it be known that am not the Grinch or Scrooge McDuck. Christmas is great for a lot of things. For me it’s great for punching my time card with my family, drinking lots of rum and eggnog and returning to my home town to see (and silently judge) how fat my high school friends have gotten. * photo is of actual high school friends.

However, in these days leading up to winter solstice and old St. Nick’s arrival, I care significantly more about the advent calendar of the Oscar race. We are now in the thick of the Oscar race as each day in December will reveal a new group’s nomination list, a film critic’s top ten list, or the actual release of the film itself.


Here’s what we have to look forward to:

Dec. 4 - National Board of Review announces winners

Dec. 9 - Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. winners unveiled

Dec. 9 - Critics Choice announces nominees

Dec. 10 - New York Film Critics Circle declares winners

Today the Indie Spirit Awards were announced and here are my general reactions:
Milk somehow misses out on Best Picture and Best Director
The Wrestler is nominated for Best Picture but not Best Director… WEIRD?
Melissa Leo in Frozen River is really starting to gain some steam. Could she push out a Jolie or even Hathaway or Winslet in the Actress category?
James Franco and not Josh Brolin is nominated for Best Supporting Actor.
I am dying to see Debra Winger nominated for an Oscar Best Supporting Actress and she was nominated today, while Marisa Tomei (whose stock is quickly falling) was not.

Up next for Oscar is National Board of Review, but lets not forget about Grammy Noms tomorrow and fingers crossed that Adele does well.